The first place in the 2023 rebel VFLW Grand Final is on the line on Saturday when the two most recent premiers lock horns in the second semi final, while Port Melbourne and Carlton face off in a knockout first semi final on Sunday.
Minor premier and 2019 champion Collingwood, which would have been hot favourite to defend its title in 2021, will aim to qualify for its third Grand Final in four seasons when it takes on reigning premier Essendon at Victoria Park on Saturday.
Just like in 2021, the Bombers finished fifth before making the Grand Final qualifier when the two underdogs both won their elimination finals.
They fell short in that second semi and went out to Geelong in the preliminary final, a fate they will attempt to avoid repeating this year.
Port Melbourne finished third in 2021 but lost its maiden final but has another chance to break through in the post season after going 0-2 in finals footy with a convincing loss to Collingwood last week. Can they make amends and stay alive?
Carlton was successful in its first final last week and will give itself every chance to stay unbeaten in finals footy on Sunday afternoon.
SECOND SEMI FINAL: COLLINGWOOD vs ESSENDON
Saturday July 15, 1:00pm, Victoria Park
Head-to-head: Collingwood 4-3. At Victoria Park: Essendon 2-1. Streak: Essendon 2
THIS SEASON
Round 5 at Victoria Park
ESSENDON 1.2, 2.2, 3.4, 4.7 (31)
COLLINGWOOD 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 2.3 (15)
Goals: ESSENDON: G. Dicker 2, M. Ryan, M. Wilson. COLLINGWOOD: E. Morris, J. Tweddle-O’Donnell.
Disposals: ESSENDON: A. Radford 32, A. Barba 22, G. Clarke 20, J. Doonan 19, A. Clarke 18. COLLINGWOOD: J. Bates 28, E. Jackson 24, M. Zander 20, E. Morris 19.
Coaches Votes: ESSENDON: A. Radford, S. Wales 5, A. Clarke 3, G. Clarke, S. Molan 2, M. Ryan 1. COLLINGWOOD: E. Morris 8, J. Bates 3, E. Jackson 1.
PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD
April 23, 2022: Essendon 14.10 94 def Collingwood 3.3 21 (NEC Hangar)
July 10, 2021: Collingwood 2.6 18 def Essendon 1.5 11 (Second Semi Final, Victoria Park)
April 25, 2021: Collingwood 5.8 38 def Essendon 4.4 28 (Windy Hill)
August 17, 2019: Essendon 7.7 49 def Collingwood 3.4 22 (Victoria Park)
July 6, 2019: Collingwood 6.4 40 def Essendon 3.2 20 (Windy Hill)
PAST FIVE MATCHES - COLLINGWOOD
QF: 7.6 48 def Port Melbourne 3.4 22 (Victoria Park)
R14: 8.8 56 def North Melbourne 3.5 23 (Arden Street Oval)
R13: 5.13 43 def Geelong 0.3 3 (AIA Vitality Centre)
R12: 4.2 26 lost to Carlton 5.4 34 (AIA Vitality Centre)
R11: 11.6 72 def Darebin 2.1 13 (Genis Steel Oval)
PAST FIVE MATCHES - ESSENDON
EF2: 4.7 31 def Box Hill Hawks 3.3 21 (Box Hill City Oval)
R14: 6.5 41 def Western Bulldogs 4.4 28 (Windy Hill)
R13: 3.1 19 lost to Port Melbourne 3.4 22 (ETU Stadium)
R12: 4.6 30 def Casey Demons 3.7 25 (Casey Fields)
R11: 5.7 37 lost to North Melbourne 6.9 45 (NEC Hangar)
SUMMARY
The Magpies were supremely impressive in dismissing Port Melbourne’s challenge last week and deserve to start favourites to bank the first spot in the Grand Final. But they are coming up against the reigning premiers, who pinched a double chance when third-placed Williamstown fell short against Carlton last week and will be desperate to earn the week off and a shot at defending their title. Essendon won the only match between these teams this season easily, but those line-ups were stacked with AFLW talent and this game won’t have any of those, so they will have to rely on their VFLW experience to get it done.
EARLY PREDICTION
Collingwood by 9
FIRST SEMI FINAL: PORT MELBOURNE vs CARLTON
Sunday July 16, 12:00pm, ETU Stadium
Head-to-head: Port Melbourne 4-1. At ETU Stadium: Port Melbourne 2-0. Streak: Port Melbourne 1
THIS SEASON
Round 1 at IKON Park
CARLTON 3.1, 5.6, 5.6, 6.8 (44)
PORT MELBOURNE 0.3, 1.4, 2.6, 2.8 (20)
Goals: CARLTON: C. Bernardi, M. Cowan, E. Honybun, I. Khoury, A. Lee, A. Thorneycroft. PORT MELBOURNE: K. O’Keefe, C. Slater.
Disposals: CARLTON: C. Bernardi 22, A. Klingbeil 20, M. Di Cosmo 18, P. Trudgeon 16, O. Di Donato 14. PORT MELBOURNE: O. Barton 16, L. Caruso, K. O’Keefe 15, A. Campbell, B. Stutt, L. Wright 13.
Coaches Votes: CARLTON: C. Bernardi, A. Klingbeil 9, M. Di Cosmo 4, P. Trudgeon 1. PORT MELBOURNE: K. O’Keefe 6, O. Barton 1.
Round 6 at ETU Stadium
PORT MELBOURNE 0.2, 1.2, 3.3, 3.5 (23)
CARLTON 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.8 (8)
Goals: PORT MELBOURNE: F. Frew, K. O’Keefe, S. Reid.
Disposals: PORT MELBOURNE: J. Williams 22, L. Caruso 19, O. Barton, K. O’Keefe 18, T. Watson 16. CARLTON: M. Di Cosmo 30, M. Anthony, K. Skepper 20, A. Klingbeil 18, C. Wrigley 16.
Coaches Votes: PORT MELBOURNE: K. O’Keefe 10, J. Williams 6, L. Caruso 5, G. Lawson-Tavan 3, M.McKellar 2. CARLTON: M. Di Cosmo 4.
PREVIOUS THREE HEAD-TO-HEAD
March 6, 2022: Port Melbourne 5.13 43 def Carlton 3.5 23 (Ikon Park)
April 18, 2021: Port Melbourne 7.4 46 def Carlton 6.4 40 (ETU Stadium)
March 7, 2021: Port Melbourne 9.5 59 def Carlton 2.3 15 (La Trobe University)
PAST FIVE MATCHES - PORT MELBOURNE
QF: 3.4 22 lost to Collingwood 7.6 48 (Victoria Park)
R14: 4.2 26 lost to Casey Demons 5.6 36 (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
R13: 3.4 22 def Essendon 3.1 19 (ETU Stadium)
R12: 8.10 58 def Darebin 2.5 17 (La Trobe University)
R11: 5.6 36 def Western Bulldogs 5.2 32 (ETU Stadium)
PAST FIVE MATCHES - CARLTON
1EF: 3.4 22 def Williamstown 2.6 18 (DSV Stadium)
R14: 12.9 81 def Darebin 2.2 14 (IKON Park)
R13: 7.1 43 def Western Bulldogs 2.2 14 (ETU Stadium)
R12: 5.4 34 def Collingwood 4.2 26 (AIA Vitality Centre)
R11: 5.2 32 lost to Southern Saints 6.2 38 (IKON Park)
SUMMARY
Port Melbourne has now played two finals without success after falling to Collingwood last week, but unlike 2021 the Borough has another chance, taking on a Carlton team that was successful at its first attempt in finals footy against Williamstown. They have split their two games this year, with the Blues winning easily at home in Round 1 and the Borough holding their opponents goalless on this ground in Round 6. Port deserves to start favourites, but the Blues are on a roll and it would not surprise if they sent them tumbling out in straight sets.
EARLY PREDICTION
Port Melbourne by 16
