WHY does Brisbane struggle to win at the MCG?

It's the question supporters, pundits and even Lions' players and staff (although they don't always like to admit it) have wrangled with the past few years, without nailing the answer.

And it's a problem they must solve if they want to hold the premiership cup aloft in September.

There's no one solution, or Chris Fagan and his men would have figured it out long ago, but a deep dive into their recent history at the ground shows there's a glaring weakness that turns the Lions into cubs at the 'G.

In the past five years when the Lions have been a regular top-eight finisher, they have played five games at the MCG against fellow heavyweights Richmond (2019 and 2021), Melbourne (twice in 2022) and Geelong (2022). They have a 1-4 win-loss record in that stretch.

(They also have a combined 0-3 record against Essendon (in 2019) and Hawthorn (in 2020 and 2023) in that stretch. However, for the sake of this argument, we'll focus on their MCG record against the cream of the competition.)

In the same five-year span, Brisbane has played Richmond, Melbourne and Geelong a combined 11 times at the Gabba, winning eight and losing three.

This is an apples for apples comparison.

The ground

Fagan has rightly pointed out Brisbane rarely gets to play at the MCG, and just like teams coming to the Gabba and losing as often as they do, you often need exposure to a ground to adapt to it.

Some think the MCG is bigger. Depending on which information you believe, that theory has some legs. The ground is 6m longer than the Gabba, but just 2m wider, although it looked about 20m wider in the Lions' most recent visit against Hawthorn, when Sam Mitchell's men continually switched the ball into an open paddock.

Perhaps the Lions struggle to persevere in hostile enemy territory, although they showed they were capable in overturning a sizeable half-time lead against the Demons in last year's semi-final.

Brownlow medallist Jason Akermanis has even said the different grass at the MCG totally changes the venue, making the ball bounce differently than it does at the Gabba.

While Fagan has dismissed this as a factor for his team's struggles, he agreed that each venue has different grass and elements to adapt to.

There's no doubt the Gabba, aesthetically at least, plays faster.

The players

At a broad level, Brisbane has had trouble scoring against the best teams – and we'll get into the 'why' later.

In the five matches we've highlighted, they've conceded an average of 13 goals a game. Not great, but not insurmountable for a team that's regularly in the three highest scoring outfits in the League.

However, they've kicked just eight, seven, 14 (in a loss to the Tigers), 14 (in a semi-final win over the Dees) and seven goals in those same matches – an average of 10 a game.

Charlie Cameron has kicked eight goals in the five games, Lincoln McCarthy four in five and Joe Daniher four in three. Eric Hipwood has been the odd man out, kicking 13 goals in the five matches, including four in the semi-final win over Melbourne.

It's too simplistic to lay the blame on the forward line, but Brisbane has battled to keep the scoreboard ticking over in its losses.

The glaring issue

The crux of Brisbane's problems is it doesn't generate enough turnovers at the MCG, and when it does, it can't score from them as heavily as it does at home.

The Lions are also not as good at winning the contested ball (-13.6 at the 'G) and not as good at stopping scores inside their defensive 50, but the real problems come from an inability to force and score from turnovers.

This is what needs to be fixed.

At the Gabba, they have outscored the Tigers, Dees and Cats by an average of 4.5 points a game, but at the MCG they are outscored by a whopping 25.8 a game.

They generate almost an identical number of turnovers, but six less a game have come in the front half of the ground, where it's easier to score from.

In fact, Brisbane scores just 33 points a game from turnovers against those teams at the MCG, compared to 48 at the Gabba.

Defending their own turnovers has been just as problematic. At the Gabba, they concede 44 points from turnovers compared to 59 at the MCG.

And while it's only one game, the come-from-behind win against Melbourne last year shows just how critical this area is. On that Friday night, the Lions scored 21 more points than the Demons from turnover in a game they won by 12 points.

Whereas Melbourne had scored 77 and 70 points after forcing mistakes from Brisbane during matches earlier in 2022, in their September contest, they scored just 33.

There's a silver lining for Brisbane here.

The Lions have changed the way they play in 2023. No longer are they so reliant on scoring from clearances, and in fact they score more points from front-half turnovers than any team in the competition.

Watch for Cameron, McCarthy, Dayne Zorko and the midfielders to force turnovers and quickly look to punish the other way.

It's not only Brisbane's blueprint for success, but the blueprint for addressing the one win from 14 matches at the MCG statistic.

If they can replicate this against Melbourne on Friday night, and any future time they head south, Fagan won't be asked about Brisbane's poor record at the MCG much longer.