THE JAI Newcombe story used to be about where this guy had come from. 

Overlooked by Gippsland Power. Played country footy as a teenager for Poowong in the Ellinbank & District Football League. Signed by Box Hill when Sam Mitchell was the coach. Picked up by Hawthorn in the 2021 mid-season draft after just six VFL games. Hollywood stuff.

But now it is about how far the soon-to-be 22-year-old can go. 

Newcombe produced a phenomenal first full season in the AFL, finishing runner-up behind James Sicily in the Peter Crimmins Medal by just eight votes – it went down to the final round – and third in the Rising Star behind Nick Daicos and Sam De Koning.

With Jaeger O'Meara and Tom Mitchell traded out in October and Liam Shiels not offered another deal to remain at Waverley Park, Newcombe has become the main man in Mitchell's engine room and is on the cusp of entering the elite bracket. 

While the romance of his rise from obscurity to the big time captured much more attention in 2022, Newcombe has quietly produced a season that has him on course to win his first best and fairest and given the All-Australian selectors something to consider when they name a squad in September. 

Since inheriting the iconic No.3, the number worn most famously at Hawthorn by Leigh Matthews, Jordan Lewis and most recently Brownlow medallist Mitchell, Newcombe has thrived with the added pressure. 

The inside midfielder is averaging career-high numbers across the board: disposals (24.6), contested possessions (11.5), groundball gets (7.2), score involvements (6.4) and clearances (5.7) from 18 appearances. 

After winning the AFL Coaches Association's best young player award, Newcombe has continued to attract the attention of the coaches across season three in the AFL. 

Only 13 players – Nick Daicos, Christian Petracca, Zak Butters, Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Neale, Connor Rozee, Noah Anderson, Zach Merrett, Toby Greene, Tim Taranto, Jordan Dawson, Caleb Serong and Jack Sinclair – have polled more votes in the AFLCA Champion Player of the Year Award than Newcombe after round 19, where the Hawk is level with All-Australian contenders Jordan De Goey, Errol Gulden and Dan Houston on 50 votes. 

When it comes to the best young midfielders in the game, Newcombe is almost seldom mentioned. First-round picks are supposed to be superstars, not players picked in the mid-season draft. 

But according to Champion Data's relative rating system (the measurement of performance against expectation of a player in terms of position and age) Newcombe is ranked No.4 of any pure midfielder under the age of 23, with his +29.6 per cent behind only Anderson, Will Ashcroft and Serong.

Newcombe is averaging the 15th-most player ratings points of any midfielder and ranked No.23 overall across the competition.  

When Hawthorn exited the trade period last October without its two best midfielders, the fingernail deep analysis focused on how much the Hawks were going to struggle at contest in 2023. 

And while they have won only five games compared to the eight wins they banked in Mitchell's first season in charge in 2022, the rebuild is taking shape with a young core of midfielders leading the way. 

James Worpel has returned to the form that led to him winning the Peter Crimmins Medal in 2019 to partner Newcombe at the coal face, while Conor Nash has been one of the most improved players in the AFL this year, averaging 23.6 disposals, 9.0 contested possessions, 5.1 tackles and 4.3 clearances to be a major bonus. And then there is Mr Fix It Will Day, who has shown why he was a first-round pick, firing in a handful of different roles.

The loss of O'Meara, Mitchell and Shiels – plus the departure of Jack Gunston to Brisbane – has unquestionably hurt from a leadership perspective, but it hasn't had an impact in the midfield. 

In fact, under the direction of Newcombe, Worpel and co, the Hawks have produced a major spike in centre bounce clearances, clearances and midfield contested possessions.

If former pick sevens Josh Ward and Cam Mackenzie can continue to develop in the next 12-24 months, Hawthorn will start climbing back up the ladder sooner rather than later. 

The man they took with pick No.2 in the middle of 2021 has turned out to be one of the biggest bargains in recent memory.