COLLINGWOOD is the AFL's comeback kings, but is there a catch to that?
The stat, widely bandied and rightfully lauded after last weekend's thrilling fightback victory against Port Adelaide, was that Craig McRae's side had won 12 of its last 16 games after trailing at three-quarter time.
But can you flip that narrative? After failing to repeat the trick against Carlton last Friday night, Collingwood has now trailed at three-quarter time in 17 of its last 32 matches. Is that normal, or sustainable, for a premiership favourite?
The short answer is no. Going back to the start of last season, the beginning of McRae's tenure, the Pies have now trailed at three-quarter time on 19 occasions. Only six teams have left themselves with more to do late in games.
But while St Kilda (22), Essendon (25), Hawthorn (27), Greater Western Sydney (28), North Melbourne (33) and West Coast (36) have trailed more times, they have also collectively won only 76 of 246 games in that period.
Of those sides only the Saints and the Giants are currently in the AFL's top eight this season, with neither guaranteed to make it to September, while all six of those teams failed to qualify for the finals last year.
In contrast, Melbourne – who stand among Collingwood's biggest rivals for this year's premiership – has trailed at three-quarter time the least in the League since the start of last season, doing so on just eight occasions. Brisbane, with 12, is next on the list.
That's not to say Collingwood is burning fuel or limping into September. In fact, according to Champion Data, the club's cumulative winning margin of 433 points this season is rather reflective of the last few premiers.
The 2022 Cats (658 points) had a much higher cumulative winning margin across the campaign, but the 2021 Demons (445 points), the 2019 Tigers (228 points), the 2018 Eagles (355 points) and the 2017 Tigers (308 points) were relatively similar to the Pies.
It is instead a case of whether history can continue to repeat in terms of Collingwood comebacks. Last season's preliminary final, when it fell 23 points down to Sydney at the final break and lost by a solitary point, was an example of a late charge falling short.
The Pies are now 5-3 this season when trailing at three-quarter time, having been involved in eight games where they were behind at the final change with four matches still remaining on the home and away calendar.
None of the aforementioned premiers were involved in as many throughout the entire home and away campaign. Geelong in 2022, Richmond in 2019 and West Coast in 2018 trailed seven times, while Melbourne in 2021 and Richmond in 2017 did so five times.
None had quite as good a record as Collingwood from such positions – the Cats were 4-3, the Demons 1-3-1, the Tigers were 1-6 in 2019 and 0-5 in 2017, and the Eagles 2-5 – but all lost more games than the Pies across the year.
It might be less than ideal, and it might be restrictive to the club's premiership hopes, but it's not something that can't be overcome. Behind at three-quarter time in the Grand Final or not, Collingwood will still take some beating in 2023.
