Bailey Smith in action during Geelong's training session at Deakin University on December 6, 2024 . Picture: AFL Photos

CONGRATULATIONS. You will soon be a multi-millionaire. The question is, what will you do with your $17,800,000?

That's right, this year in AFL Fantasy Classic we have more money than ever to select 30 players in our initial squad. This figure has increased by two million dollars in 2025 to match the real salary cap that list managers and the 18 clubs must work with.

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However, with an increased salary cap, don't be fooled by thinking that this game will be easier than ever before.

We start with having 33 players priced over the million dollar mark (up from eight in 2024) headlined by the two ruckmen Rowan Marshall (RUC, $1,201,000) and Tristan Xerri (RUC, $1,175,000). They were the best players of 2024 averaging 117 and 115 respectively and come with two of the highest starting price tags we have ever seen.

Tristan Xerri and Rowan Marshall in action during the match between St Kilda and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium in round eight, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

How it works

Players are priced according to their 2024 output. The highest averaging players from last season will cost the most while players who under-performed or missed games through injury will be much cheaper or even potentially discounted if they played less than 10 games.

Most players will be priced based on their average from the previous season and this is determined by the 'magic number' which sits at approximately 10,260 for the season ahead. When this number is multiplied to a player's average, their price is generated.

Patrick Cripps (MID, $1,026,000) averaged 100 which helps us understand the 'magic number' in the most simplest way. 100 x 10,260 = $1,026,000.

Patrick Cripps in action during the elimination final between Brisbane and Carlton at The Gabba on September 7, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

Players have received a discount on their price if they played fewer than 10 games last season, with a discount of three per cent per game they played under 10. If they missed a whole season, they have received a 30 per cent discount on their price, which is applied to the higher average score of the past two seasons. Players missing two full seasons are discounted by 35 per cent on last available average, three seasons out attracts a 40 per cent discount, and so on.

Another way of using the magic number is by working out what value players are 'priced at'. This term is regularly used when discussing AFL Fantasy as it allows us to find players who are 'priced at' under what we think they can achieve.

To do this, we inverse the equation and divide the player's price by the magic number to get the average they are priced at.

Bailey Smith (MID/FWD, $598,000) will be one of the most selected players this season based on this alone. $598,000 ÷ 10,260 = 58.3. Smith received a discount this year after missing 2024 and is now priced at an average of 58.3 which means he is massive value and will be at the top of everyone's shopping list.

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Top-priced players

From the 33 players worth over a million dollars this season we have nine defenders, five rucks, no forwards and not surprisingly, 19 midfielders.

At the top of the list for midfielders we have Adam Treloar (MID, $1,129,000) after he averaged 110 last season along with Zach Merrett (MID, $1,116,000) and Errol Gulden (MID, $1,113,000).

Heading into 2024, we had three defenders averaging triple figures and in 2025 we have eight with Harry Sheezel (DEF, $1,151,000) the most expensive after averaging an impressive 112 last season.

Harry Sheezel celebrates kicking a goal during the match between North Melbourne and Collingwood at Marvel Stadium in round 19, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

The highest averaging forward available is Dylan Moore (FWD, $944,000) who is coming off a season averaging 92. Selecting forwards last season proved a challenging task and it appears we may have the same issues again, unless we can find some value.

Top 25 priced players in AFL Fantasy

PLAYER

CLUB

POSITION

PRICE

2024 AVERAGE

2024 GAMES

Rowan Marshall

STK

RUC

$1,201,000

117.1

23

Tristan Xerri

NTH

RUC

$1,175,000

114.5

23

Harry Sheezel

NTH

DEF

$1,151,000

112.1

21

Max Gawn

MEL

RUC

$1,147,000

111.8

21

Lachie Whitfield

GWS

DEF

$1,146,000

111.7

23

Dayne Zorko

BRL

DEF

$1,131,000

110.3

23

Adam Treloar

WBD

MID

$1,129,000

110.0

22

Zach Merrett

ESS

MID

$1,116,000

108.7

23

Errol Gulden

SYD

MID

$1,113,000

108.5

23

Sam Flanders

GCS

DEF/MID

$1,106,000

107.8

22

Josh Dunkley

BRL

MID

$1,102,000

107.4

23

Marcus Bontempelli

WBD

MID

$1,101,000

107.3

23

Nic Martin

ESS

DEF

$1,100,000

107.2

23

Jack Steele

STK

MID

$1,094,000

106.6

23

Sam Walsh

CAR

MID

$1,089,000

106.1

19

Zak Butters

PTA

MID

$1,089,000

106.1

23

Jordan Dawson

ADE

MID

$1,080,000

105.3

22

Isaac Heeney

SYD

MID

$1,079,000

105.2

21

Tim English

WBD

RUC

$1,074,000

104.6

22

Nick Daicos

COL

MID

$1,074,000

104.7

23

Andrew Brayshaw

FRE

MID

$1,073,000

104.6

23

Noah Anderson

GCS

MID

$1,067,000

104.0

23

Caleb Serong

FRE

MID

$1,067,000

104.0

23

Nic Newman

CAR

DEF

$1,052,000

102.6

23

Luke Ryan

FRE

DEF

$1,048,000

102.1

23

Value picks

Finding players under-priced is the key to AFL Fantasy. Finding these players who are 'priced at' under what they will achieve like Bailey Smith is critical and in 2025 we have a few more on the radar, especially in the forward line.

Former Bulldogs Jack Macrae (FWD, $732,000) and Caleb Daniel (MID/FWD, $514,000) could be exactly what we need. Both players had frustrating seasons in 2024 and found themselves playing out of position and even out of the team.

Jack Macrae poses for a photo after joining St Kilda. Picture: St Kilda FC

Subsequently, Macrae only averaged 71 whereas Daniel managed just 16 games for the season and wore the substitute vest on eight occasions. This dramatically effected his output which now has him priced at an average of 50.

Players can be value for a variety of different reasons and some can be value just through the unfortunate result of an injury.

Keidean Coleman (DEF, $521,000) had a season-ending knee injury in Opening Round last year which means he’ll receive at 27 per cent discount, which is applied to the highest average of his past two seasons (69.6). This prices the Lions' defender at an average of 50.8.

Keidean Coleman during Brisbane's training session at Brighton Homes Arena on April 9, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

Rookies and bargain-basement players

Rookies get priced at where they were selected in the Telstra AFL Draft.

No.1 pick Sam Lalor (MID, $340,000) is the top-priced rookie this year and just like last season, the second selected player Finn O'Sullivan (MID, $337,000) is $3,000 cheaper.

This trend continues for every subsequent pick until we reach pick No.37 Kayle Gerreyn (RUC, $232,000). All draftees after pick No.37, or players who are yet to debut, are priced at $230,000.