THE 2013 Coleman Medal is unlikely to be decided until the last day of the home and away season.
That is when Greater Western Sydney's Jeremy Cameron – barring injury – will complete his extraordinary sophomore season.
With two games to play, Cameron is locked alongside Hawthorn's Jarryd Roughead and the West Coast's Josh Kennedy at the top of the leaders' board on 60 goals.
Two goals behind that trio is Collingwood's Travis Cloke (who also plays on the final Sunday), with two former Coleman winners, Richmond's Jack Riewoldt (56 goals) and Lance Franklin (51) outside chances.
Any of the leading trio would be popular winners but Cameron stands as the people's favourite.
In just his second season, with a team that has won just one match and averages a League-low 40.2 inside-50s per game, Cameron has kicked a goal in every game.
He kicks a goal every 13 inside 50s. By comparison, Roughead has kicked one every 18 times the Hawks go inside 50 and Kennedy one every 15.5 times the Eagles enter the forward arc.
Cameron, 20, has averaged 4.2 goals a game in the past five weeks and may be up against two opponents who concede goals when the Giants play Richmond and the Suns in rounds 22 and 23.
Troy Chaplin is a much tighter key defender than Alex Rance. Chaplin has conceded 21 goals in 19 games this season, as opposed to Rance conceding 37 in 20 games. If Chaplin goes to Cameron, his Coleman will be well-earned.
Troy Chaplin is a much tighter key defender than Alex Rance. Chaplin has conceded 21 goals in 19 games this season, as opposed to Rance conceding 37 in 20 games. If Chaplin goes to Cameron, his Coleman will be well-earned. In the final round, his likely opponent would the Suns' Rory Thompson, who has conceded 43 goals in 19 games. If Cameron is roundabout the leaders, he might charge in the final round.
On the law of averages, he looks the winner.
Roughead has averaged 2.6 goals in the past five games with one goal in two of the past three weeks.
He faces tough key defenders in North Melbourne's Scott Thompson (conceded 26 goals in 19 games), Nathan Grima (21 in 17) and Lachie Hansen (19 in 18).
He averages 1.35 against the Kangaroos in his career and one goal a game the past three times the two teams have played.
Against the Sydney Swans, he averages 1.64 goals in his career with four goals in his most recent game against the club, but duck eggs in the two encounters before then.
Of course, the presence of Franklin up forward means Roughead is less likely to get big numbers. He has kicked 13 goals in the three games Buddy has missed in 2013 (average 4.33) and 47 in the remaining 17 games (average 2.6).
Kennedy has kicked just nine goals in the past six games he has played against Collingwood and Adelaide.
His likely opponents are Nathan Brown (conceded 34 goals in 19 games) and the tight Daniel Talia (24 from 20) or Ben Rutten (21 from 19) in the final round.
He has kicked just one goal in the past two rounds and averages 2.6 goals a game in the past five weeks.
He kicked four goals against Adelaide in round 15 and, unbelievably, the Eagles are yet to play Collingwood this season.
If he wins, stutter runs might become a feature of junior football around the country.
If Cloke had kicked straight he would probably be leading the race. Two goals off the pace, he takes good form into the final rounds. He averages three goals a game in the past five weeks and shapes as a danger to the leaders.
He plays on classy Eagles' defender Eric McKenzie (conceded 24 goals in 18 games) and North Melbourne's tight defensive trio in the remaining two contests. He kicked four against North Melbourne in round one but has not kicked a goal in his past two games against the Eagles.
One dream scenario for football fans is Cloke lining up from the top of the goalsquare against North Melbourne at the MCG late on Sunday afternoon for the Coleman.
Who could watch that?
Riewoldt is a doubtful starter this week against Greater Western Sydney after hurting his knee against Carlton.
He kicked three goals against the Giants in 2012 and won't get it as easy as some imagine.
Despite perception, only eight players have kicked five goals or more in games against the Giants.
The most recent time it happened was against North Melbourne in round 14 when Drew Petrie kicked five goals.
Josh Bruce (conceding 24 goals from 11 games) and Phil Davis (23 from 11) have been very solid defenders when facing an avalanche of opposition entries.
Riewoldt averaged 2.6 goals a game in the past five weeks and kicked two against Essendon in round nine. He looks merely a rough chance to add to his Coleman Medal tally.
And then there is Buddy, lurking on 51 goals. He kicked 13 last season against North Melbourne (although Thompson held him goalless at the MCG in round five when Franklin kicked five behinds) and eight in his last start at Etihad (against Essendon).
Buddy averages 3.25 goals a game at Etihad so he remains an extreme outsider to make up the nine-goal deficit in two rounds.
In his only game at ANZ Stadium – where Hawthorn plays the Swans in round 23 – he kicked two goals. He has never kicked more than six against the Swans.
But who would write off Buddy with two games to play?
