THE MAN who ripped more than $1 million from the bags of bookmakers following Chris Judd's 2010 Brownlow Medal has tipped Hawthorn long-shot Sam Mitchell to win this year's medal.

Sean Brady, the man who predicted the Jobe Watson-Trent Cotchin quinella last year collecting $250,000, has predicted Mitchell to beat unbackable favourite Gary Ablett.

It flies in the face of Ablett's favouritism at short odds, some bookmakers already paying out on unassailable victory mid-season.

Mitchell's odds read as much as $15 with some betting agencies.

Brady, who predicted Judd's 2010 win in advance, says Mitchell's polling history has him at the top of the 2013 tree.

"I think people fail to take into account his polling history," Brady told Channel Nine's The Footy Show.

"He's come off 30 votes the year Dane Swan won it two years ago, 26 votes last year.

"The umpires clearly see him as a polling type. They certainly don't miss him when he plays well. Hawthorn have had 19 wins this year and he's just had a great Brownlow year in my opinion."

Mitchell and Ablett both average 0.74 votes per match across their careers.

"It was well documented a lot of people felt Gary was over the line mid-season," Brady said.

"I think that will have him on 20 votes after round 12.

"It looked like Gary was going to be a runaway winner but that's not going to happen. In the second half of the year Gary's only got two big games in my opinion.

"If he's on track for a potential 20 (after round 12), that only gets him 24-26 votes.

"I've got Mitchell polling 27-28.

"I feel there are five live chances, (Joel) Selwood, (Dane) Swan, (Scott) Pendles (Pendlebury), Ablett and Mitchell."