AFTER a year to forget for the Bombers in 2013, they head into this season with a point to prove and a few players worthy of Fantasy selection.
The biggest lock for the Bombers is... Jobe Watson [MID, $534,000].
As discussed in the team builder article on Watson, this year we have plenty of under-priced midfielders vying for selection in our Fantasy squads.
During his Brownlow Medal winning year, Watson scored career high Fantasy points averaging 112.4 over 22 games. Last season, his averaged dropped below 100 making him priced almost 14 points below what we know is his best.
In his one NAB Challenge appearance he gathered 18 disposals and eight tackles to be the second highest scoring Bomber against Port Adelaide with 84 points from 79 per cent time on ground.
At this stage of the pre-season there is no reason why he shouldn’t be a member of your starting squad.
A bargain on the radar is... former Cat Paul Chapman [FWD/MID, $403,800].
Age and durability are concerns when picking Chapman but he hasn’t been this cheap in AFL Fantasy since 2005.
The 32-year-old played just six matches last season at an average of 84. Prior to last season, Chapman had averaged over 92 in each season from 2006 including 112.5 in 2009 and 113.7 in 2010.
With just six games due to injury, Chapman received a 12 per cent discount on his starting price.
There is plenty of risk selecting the midfielder-forward but all signs point towards him improving his average at his new club. In last week’s NAB Challenge match against the Power, Chapman scored 77 points in 76 per cent game time.
You wouldn’t bet on him playing every game as it’s already been mooted that he’ll be managed throughout the season, however if he can make it to Essendon’s round ten bye, strategically he could be traded then after making you a decent pile of money.
A player of difference is... ex-Saint Brendon Goddard [MID, $571,300].
Goddard lost his dual-position status after being a premium Fantasy defender option for the better part of the last decade. He’s missed just six games in as many years, averaging as high as 113 Fantasy points per game.
Playing all 22 games in his first year at Essendon, Goddard played predominantly as a midfielder to enjoy the second best Fantasy return of his career.
Currently Goddard appears in less than five per cent of AFL Fantasy teams. The unique selection could be a great point of difference in your league match-ups and a very handy bye round player with a lack of premium players sharing that round 10 bye.
The pre-season has taught us... that our fourth Fantasy ruckman might be Fraser Thurlow [FWD/RUC, $115,200].
It’s no secret that we’re struggling to find a ruckman under $200K this season who will get on the field. With an injury to Tom Bellchambers, the rookie-listed Thurlow showed some great signs in both NAB Challenge matches.
In his first game against the Suns, Thurlow scored 54 points from just 39 per cent time on ground. He followed up against the Power with 45 points from 49 per cent game time. In both occasions he played second fiddle to Patrick Ryder.
He is far from being a lock to play for the Bombers, especially as he played limited minutes over the pre-season but if he does, then he should make some money on our bench.
Twitter Talk
@tbetta9 asks “@WarnieDT: Brent Stanton always seems to start the season on fire – is he worth a look in #AFLFantasy this year, especially before the bye?”
I have always been a fan of Brent Stanton [MID, $560,300]. He has a fantastic Fantasy game with the ability to score huge.
Over the last two seasons his 10 best scores have been 193, 175, 153, 149, 149, 144, 142, 140, 130 and 126. Interestingly, most of these scores came in the first half of the season.
Digging into the stats from the last two seasons, between rounds one and 10, Stanton averaged 126.9 in 2012 and 114.7 in 2013. Compare these from round 11 onwards, he averaged 78.4 and 94.9 points respectively.
In short, yes he has been a fast starter.
The problem with Stanton is that he is prone to some low scores and looking at the Bombers’ early fixture, there are some clubs he plays that he may struggle against. Carlton is one of these in round three. Scores of 61, 52 and 72 in his last three matches against the Blues is enough to put me off.
There is no doubting Stanton's Fantasy ability as his ceiling is as high as any other player in the competition. If you go in with a strategy to trade him out when Essendon have the bye, you might get a head start on your competition.
Coach Warnie currently has his eye on...
Watson is sitting as my third midfielder at the moment. Whilst I would love him to get back to his 112 average of a couple of seasons ago, realistically I think he’ll be somewhere between 105 and 110. This is enough to call him a premium midfielder and good value for my initial squad; especially with the round 10 bye in mind.
Hopefully Thurlow can be that bench ruck option we are looking for. With his FWD/RUC status, the flexibility that this offers may come in handy during the season.
One of my favourites from last season was Michael Hibberd [DEF, $472,300]. He was brilliant in the opening NAB Challenge game scoring 108 but he was substituted in the second pre-season match with a hamstring injury. The Bombers are hopeful that he will be right for round one, but for now, he’ll be an upgrade target for the Warne Dawgs.
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