IT'S ONLY Tuesday in the lead up to the first week of Fantasy finals and we have been thrown a curve ball with Steve Johnson receiving a one-week suspension, not to mention the injury cloud hanging over the head of popular defender David Swallow.
For teams in the do-or-die final, it looks like Stevie will need to be traded; if coaches in the top-four match-up have good enough cover to hold him, it could prove to be a masterstroke over the course of the finals.
CHOPPING BLOCK
After a great season where David Swallow [DEF/MID, $460,233] has averaged a fantastic 93 in our back lines, his injury scare on the weekend, combined with a severe form drop in the absence of Gary Ablett could mean it is time to go for the finals. Over the past three weeks Swallow has averaged just 70 and his break-even of 126 is reflective of his recent output for our Fantasy sides. You won’t find many friendlier draws than Swallow has received over the past three weeks with games against the Bulldogs, Lions and Saints, so his scores of 75, 78 and an injury-affected 57 do not instil a lot of confidence leading into the most important part of the season.
STEVIE REPLACEMENTS
At the top of my list for replacing Stevie J is the in-form Steele Sidebottom [MID, $581,636]. Over the past three weeks Steele has averaged an impressive 125 to go with a five-game average of 124, making him one of the safest bets going around. In that time he has had two scores of more than 140 and a low of just 99. A look ahead to his upcoming draw suggests that Sidebottom’s form will not be slowing down anytime soon. Over the next three weeks he faces the Eagles, who he has scored three straight tons against, back-to-back scores of 115 against the Lions, and the Giants. I also love the fact Steele is so unique despite his outstanding form, owned by fewer than two per cent of the competition and he could prove to be a great point of difference over the next few weeks.
Rory Sloane [MID, $518,346] has dropped under the 100-point mark on just one occasion over the past five weeks and the beauty of that poor score is that he is now still available for a good price despite his undeniable form. To add to this, the Crows have arguably the most Fantasy friendly run home with games against the Lions, Tigers, Kangaroos and a Grand Final hit-out against the Saints, against whom he managed to score 131 earlier this year. He has averaged 105 over the past five weeks and provides great value, coming much cheaper than in-form rival premium midfielders.
If you make the hard call to cut Swallow, there is an opportunity to downgrade him to a couple serviceable defenders from the Crows, which would not only generate some handy cash, but also takes advantage of their friendly draw. After Matthew Jaensch [DEF, $388,214] started the year in a blaze of glory, he almost elevated himself to ‘must have’ status after scoring more than 120 on two occasions in the first five weeks. After that point, injuries and inconsistent form saw a rollercoaster ride, until the past three weeks where he seems to be recapturing some decent form. With scores of 79, 89 and an impressive 95 on the weekend, Jaensch looks headed in the right direction and for that price, with the draw, he looks great value and could even knock you out a sneaky 120 in the coming weeks.
The past month, Brodie Martin [DEF, $365,679] has been in career-best form, not only securing himself in the Crows’ best 22, but also kissing goodbye to the dreaded green vest. In the past month he has dropped under 90 on just one occasion. During that time, Martin has played a variety of roles all over the ground, but one thing that has stayed consistent is the well rounded nature of his games which have provided multiple avenues to score. In his past four games, Martin has averaged more than four marks, kicked three goals, laid a minimum of four tackles while dropping under 20 possessions on just one occasion. If Martin is used as a downgrade from Swallow, it will net you almost $100,000 to use for an upgrade elsewhere on your field. As an added bonus, Martin is a Fantasy fan from way back so he understands the position you are in, he understands his responsibility as a selected player and what he needs to do to get the job done for you … especially at finals time.
BUYER BEWARE
The in-form Joel Selwood [MID, $554,432] looks the obvious replacement for his mate Stevie J, with a three-game average of 133 and four scores over 120 in his past five games. An interesting statistic to keep in mind is that last time the Cats played the Dockers without Johnson, the Ryan Crowley tag went to Selwood and he managed just 38 points. I doubt he will keep him this quiet again, but there you have it.
WHAT ARE THE TRADERS DOING?
Warnie
Steele Sidebottom, Sam Mitchell IN
Steve Johnson, David Swallow OUT
Stevie J's suspension lets Warnie bring in the in-form Sidebottom and he's not taking any risks with Swallow's Achilles injury and it means Mitchell is now a member of his team for the first week of finals.
Calvin
Brodie Martin, Jack Macrae IN
David Swallow, Steve Johnson OUT
As a previous owner, Calvin is relieved to get the in-form Macrae back into his side and is excited about what he will produce over the last month.
Roy
Brodie Martin, Steele Sidebottom IN
David Swallow, Steve Johnson OUT
If Swallow is fit to play I will alter my trades to upgrade Anthony Miles to Rory Sloane. Unfortunately I don’t have the depth in my midfield to put Stevie J on the bench for the week.
If you have any trade questions, hit me up on Twitter: @RoyDT
