• Nine things we learned from round 22
• Around the state leagues: Veteran Swan's case for a recall
• Fantasy round review: Midfields crumble at crunch time
1. SYDNEY SWANS
68 points (17 wins, four losses) 145.1 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium
If the Swans win next week:
- They deliver their first minor premiership in 18 years
If they lose next week:
- They host a qualifying final regardless
- They retain top spot if the Hawks lose, or if the Hawks win but fail to close their percentage gap to the Swans
- They slip to second if Hawthorn's margin is roughly 90 points better than the Swans'. For example, if the Hawks beat Collingwood by 60 points, the Swans would need to lose by at least 30 points
Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: Sydney Swans v Fremantle, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium
How will September unfold? Make your own forecast with the 2014 ladder and finals predictor
2. HAWTHORN
64 points (16 wins, five losses) 138.3 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
If the Hawks win next week:
- And the Tigers defy the odds at ANZ Stadium, Hawthorn can claim a hat-trick of minor premierships
- They finish second if the Swans beat the Tigers
- Providing the Cats and Swans both win, Hawthorn and Geelong will meet in the finals for the fourth time in seven years
If they lose next week:
- They can finish as low as fourth if the Cats win and the Dockers thrash Port Adelaide
- They hold onto second if the Lions and Power both win
- They finish third in all other scenarios
Predicted finish: Second
Predicted final match-up: Hawthorn v Geelong, second qualifying final, MCG
3. GEELONG
64 points (16 wins, five losses) 110.8 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
If the Cats win next week:
- And the Hawks win, it's status quo and the Cats finish third
- They climb to second if the Magpies roll Hawthorn
If they lose next week:
- And Fremantle beats Port Adelaide, they finish fourth
- They remain third if the Power win in Perth
Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: Hawthorn v Geelong, second qualifying final, MCG
4. FREMANTLE
60 points (15 wins, six losses) 131.9 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
If the Dockers win next week:
- And the Lions win in Geelong, they finish third
- They can finish no lower than fourth
- They earn a home qualifying final in the unlikely event that Geelong loses, Hawthorn loses, and Fremantle and Collingwood's combined winning margin is at least 90 points
If they lose next week:
- They finish fifth and host an elimination final
Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: Sydney Swans v Fremantle, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium
5. PORT ADELAIDE
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 132.4 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
If the Power win next week:
- They finish fourth, pocketing the double chance and an away qualifying final against the Swans or Hawthorn
If they lose next week:
- They host an elimination final at Adelaide Oval
- They finish fifth unless they lose by around 20 goals and the Kangaroos beat Melbourne by a similar margin, in which case they slide to sixth
- An elimination final Showdown is possible if Port finishes fifth and the Crows overhaul Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast
Predicted finish: Fifth
Predicted final match-up: Port Adelaide v West Coast, first elimination final, Adelaide Oval
52 points (13 wins, eight losses) 116.2 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
If the Kangaroos win next week:
- They earn a home elimination final
- They finish sixth unless two extraordinary blowouts allow the Roos to close their 16-point percentage gap on Port Adelaide
If they lose next week:
- They play Essendon or Richmond in an elimination final
- They finish sixth if Essendon loses, or if the Bombers win but fail to overtake North on percentage
- They finish seventh (and Essendon sixth) if the Bombers win by around 75 points and North loses by a similar margin
Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: North Melbourne v Essendon, second elimination final, MCG
7. ESSENDON
48 points (12 wins, nine losses) 106.7 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
If the Bombers win next week:
- They finish no lower than seventh
- They can only climb to sixth if they thrash Carlton by a huge margin and North Melbourne is heavily beaten by the Demons
If they lose next week:
- They still qualify for finals if either Collingwood or Richmond loses, or if the Bombers maintain their superior percentage over either team
- They finish seventh unless Richmond beats the Swans or Collingwood thrashes Hawthorn
- They are near mathematical certainties to make the finals. However, pessimistic Bomber fans can consider the following scenario: they lose by 10 goals; the Tigers win; the Magpies demolish Hawthorn by 100 points
Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: North Melbourne v Essendon, second elimination final, MCG
Paul Chapman is set to return to the finals in different colours after Essendon's win. Picture: AFL Media
8. RICHMOND
44 points (11 wins, 10 losses) 105.8 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
If the Tigers win next week:
- And Collingwood fails to beat Hawthorn by at least 120 points, they qualify for their second consecutive finals series
If they lose next week:
- It's prayer time. To make the finals they must hope Collingwood, Adelaide and West Coast all lose their round 23 games
- They can finish as low as 11th
- If exactly one of Collingwood, Adelaide and West Coast wins, the Tigers finish ninth
Predicted finish: 10th
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9. COLLINGWOOD
44 points (11 wins, 10 losses) 97.4 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
If the Magpies win next week:
- And Richmond loses to the Swans, they reach the finals for the ninth consecutive year
- Their season ends if the Tigers win in Sydney
If they lose next week:
- Their finals streak ends at eight seasons
- They can finish anywhere from ninth to 11th
Predicted finish: 11th
10. WEST COAST
40 points (10 wins, 11 losses) 114.7 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
If the Eagles win next week:
- They sneak into the finals if Richmond and Collingwood lose to the Swans and Hawks respectively, providing the Eagles also preserve their percentage advantage over Adelaide
- They miss the finals if the Tigers or Magpies win
- They miss the finals if they only narrowly beat the Suns while the Crows wallop St Kilda by at least 12 goals.
If they lose next week:
- They finish either 11th or 12th
Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: Port Adelaide v West Coast, first elimination final, Adelaide Oval
11. ADELAIDE
40 points (10 wins, 11 losses) 110.2 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
If the Crows win next week:
- And the Tigers, Magpies and Eagles all lose, Adelaide qualifies for the finals
- They would also finish eighth if Collingwood and Richmond lose but West Coast wins, providing the Crows beat St Kilda by enough to leapfrog the Eagles on percentage
- They can finish as low as 11th
If they lose next week:
- They finish 11th or 12th
Predicted finish: Ninth
12. GOLD COAST
40 points (10 wins, 11 losses) 96.0 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium
If the Suns win next week:
- They're in miracle territory to make the finals
- They can finish eighth if they thrash the Eagles by a 100-point margin while Richmond, Collingwood and Adelaide all lose. The Tigers and Magpies must both lose heavily.
- They can still finish as low as 11th
If they lose next week:
- They finish 12th, two places higher than their best finish in their three previous AFL seasons
Predicted finish: 12th
How will September unfold? Make your own forecast with the 2014 ladder and finals predictor
