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TODAY, we pit two second-year guns with an eye for goal, who could each prove to be the Jack Macrae of the 2015 Fantasy season. It's breakout time!
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JACK MARTIN (GOLD COAST) | JOSH KELLY (GWS) | |
Fantasy position | Forward | Forward/midfielder |
2015 starting price | $285,000 | $395,000 |
Price change from start of 2014 | -$16,700 | +$145,069 |
2014 average | 50.4 | 69.7 |
2014 high score | 102 | 140 |
Currently owned by (% of coaches) | 9.81% | 6.25% |
Age | 20 | 19 |
Key Fantasy stat | Martin was the Suns' most accurate shot at goal in his 11-game cameo last year and also led the club in tackles inside-50 during the second half of 2014. | The smooth-moving Giant laid down his Fantasy marker in the final three weeks of 2014, with scores of 140, 117 and 83 to round out his debut season. No first-year player got close to that kind of finish. |
Value for money | Stunning, for a player who was talked up as one of the best teenage prospects in years, prior to 2014. Injury curtailed his debut season but that just means he’s at a bargain Fantasy price this year. | Moderate. Rising Star winner Lewis Taylor is $22,000 cheaper, but for a No.2 draft pick with a serious tank, Kelly has enough of a formline to warrant a bit of a splurge. |
Job security | Martin played the final 10 games of 2014 after recovering from a dislocated shoulder and his undoubted talent would seem to demand a regular spot in the club’s best 22. | Safe as houses, even though the Giants have gradually built a solid midfield. After trading another No.2 pick to Hawthorn (Jonathan O’Rourke), the Giants will want to get their money’s worth out of this young gun. |
Where he'll play | After impressing as a half-forward, and given the Suns’ surplus of midfielders, Martin is likely to remain close to the big sticks. Expect Eade to also give him a chance to use his pace on the wing at times. | His first trick will be to avoid the green vest (he was the starting sub in four games last year) but there should be plenty of midfield minutes for Kelly and when he pushes forward he knows how to slot a goal. |
Injury concerns | None to speak of, as he is long recovered from 2014’s shoulder injury and has put on some bulk over the summer. | Nothing to worry about here. Kelly’s had a solid pre-season and came third in the Giants’ recent 3km time trial. |
The case for | Second time lucky. Last season Martin was a slightly over-priced risk, this year he’s an under-priced walk up for your forward line. His final game of 2014 (102 points against the Eagles in a losing side) pointed to serious breakout potential this year. | The Giants have already handed him an extended contract and 17 touches a game in a debut year says he can walk the walk. Kelly is ranked first amongst GWS players for crumbing possessions and fifth for loose-ball gets, both strong indicators of Fantasy scoring potential. |
The case against | Injury curtailed his debut year but Martin still needs the runs on the board before he can be considered a lock. There could also be some youthful inconsistency in just his second season. | He’s a touch pricey and if the Giants go backwards this year, Kelly’s scoring may be limited. However if you’ve watched him break free from a pack and hit a target, it’s hard not to be captivated by his talent. |
The verdict | Jack Martin: This mainly comes down to price and position. You can throw $285,000 at Martin in your forward line with little risk. $395,000 for Kelly, despite dual-position status, is a fair chunk of change. Still, of all the second-year players, these two look the likeliest to deliver a Jack Macrae-style breakout. Pick Martin now and trade Kelly in quickly if the early signs are good. |