1. Adelaide

54 points (13 wins, four losses, one draw) 137.1 per cent
Fair bit of character from the Crows to dig themselves out of a 50-point hole to snatch the draw on Sunday against Collingwood and in the context of their season it was hugely important. They remain a game and a hefty percentage clear of the Cats and in the box seat for a top-two finish, but they'll be tested in each of their remaining four games and cannot afford to start as slowly again. The Giants and Richmond are a bit further back but are eyeing the top two if the Crows stumble. Fantastic Showdown looming on Sunday.

The run home
Rd 20: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 21: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Sydney (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: West Coast (Domain Stadium)

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2. Geelong

50 points (12 wins, five losses, one draw) 119.2 per cent
Huge fortnight for the Cats at home with the Swans and then Richmond paying a visit. They might be getting the Swans at the right time, while the Tiger clash has the makings of an eight-point game. Adelaide is now in Geelong’s sights after the draw on Sunday. A game and plenty of percentage separates the pair, but the Crows have a slightly harder run home than the Cats, so top spot is still in play.

The run home
Rd 20: Sydney (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 21: Richmond (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Collingwood (MCG)
Rd 23: GWS (Simonds Stadium)

3. Greater Western Sydney

48 points (11 wins, five losses, two draws) 113.7 per cent
Still don't appear to be playing anywhere near close enough to run the table, which they might need to in order to steal second place. But the grinding win over Fremantle allayed fears the Giants might miss the finals altogether after a recent form slump. They'll be happy to be back in Canberra this week where they've won their past seven games.

The run home
Rd 20: Melbourne (Manuka Oval)
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Geelong (Simonds Stadium) 

4. Richmond

48 points (12 wins, six losses) 110.5 per cent
Richmond would no doubt enjoy the prospect of ending Hawthorn's season once and for all (and would please some other teams as well) if they can get the win in what shapes as a great Sunday afternoon matinee at the MCG. But more to the point, they could go two games clear of Port Adelaide in the race for the double chance if the Power gets beaten in the Showdown. The Geelong game to follow is mega as well, but first things first for the Tigers.

The run home
Rd 20: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 21: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: St Kilda (MCG)

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5. Port Adelaide

44 points (11 wins, seven losses) 130.8 per cent
One of the best set-piece plays you will ever see gave Port a last-gasp win over the Saints and keeps them in the hunt for the double chance. But the Power will still go into that clash as the strong underdog given their poor record against top-eight clubs this year. If they lose and the Tigers win, they'll be two games outside the top four with three games to play. Still, exposed form often counts for nought in Showdown games, so strap yourself in for a beauty.

The run home
Rd 20: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 21: Collingwood (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs (Eureka Stadium)
Rd 23: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval) 

6. Sydney

40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 114.7 per cent
Pencil in the Swans for at least two more wins, which should get them into the finals. But regular readers will know that this column has been cautioning that the Swans still had four difficult away games to come. They successfully negotiated the first (GWS), lost to the Hawks and still need to travel to Geelong and Adelaide. They might need to settle for seventh or eighth, a mighty effort after their 0-6 start, but which would mean every final on the road.

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The run home
Rd 20: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 21: Fremantle (SCG)
Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: Carlton (SCG) 

7. Melbourne

40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 107.3 per cent
You would think the Demons have been good enough all year to eke out the two more wins needed to play finals, and certainly, they deserve to play in the finals, but only the Lions game seems a certainty from here. Good thing for them that they don't have to play North Melbourne again.

The run home
Rd 20: GWS (Manuka Oval)
Rd 21: St Kilda (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)

8. West Coast

40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 105.9 per cent
The Eagles are back in the eight, but really, did little more than was expected at home to the Lions. They need to win two more from here to remain in the finals hunt, but you’d only give them the Carlton game at home in a fortnight with any confidence whatsoever. They’re scratchy on the road and the Crows might need to win in round 23 to give finish top two, so they’re likely to go flat chat.

The run home
Rd 20: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Carlton (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Domain Stadium) 


9. Western Bulldogs

40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 100.3 per cent
The Dogs are back in business and likely now to be in the finals race until the final weekend of the season. They'll be happy to play the Giants on their home deck and while they lose a home ground advantage by virtue of selling the Port game to Ballarat, they gain a bonus in round 23 with their 'away' game against Hawthorn to be played at Etihad. Lock that one in for the Friday night because it might well be a case of 'win and you're in' for one and possibly both clubs. 

The run home
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Rd 21: GWS (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Eureka Stadium)
Rd 23: Hawthorn (Etihad Stadium)

10. Essendon

36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 107.1 per cent
The Bombers weren't all that poor against the Bulldogs on Sunday; they just ran into the reigning premiers back to being, well, the reigning premiers. They're still good things to win three of their last four games and if they can muster up some further percentage in the process, all the better. But it is the Adelaide game in a fortnight that is the big one. Win that and they're in.

The run home
Rd 20: Carlton (MCG)
Rd 21: Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)

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11. St Kilda

36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 96.7 per cent
No real margin for error now the for the Saints, who would need to win every game from here to be certain of making the finals. The psychologists will have a field day this week with a side that so bravely led Port Adelaide on the road by eight points with just two minutes to play, only to somehow lose. To win four straight from here, after that, would be a mighty performance.

The run home
Rd 20: West Coast (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Richmond (MCG) 

12. Hawthorn

34 points (eight wins, nine losses, one draw) 88.8 per cent
Need to keep winning from here and rely on some luck as well in order for a finals appearance that would be even more remarkable than that by the Swans. Their fans are chirpy, and why not after a stirring win on Friday night, but the Hawks are likely to fall a game or so short.

The run home
Rd 20: Richmond (MCG)
Rd 21: North Melbourne (University of Tasmania Stadium)
Rd 22: Carlton (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)