SUMMARY

Collingwood wasn't supposed to be here, with pretty much everyone expecting Nathan Buckley's men to fall to West Coast last week. Instead, the Pies produced one of their best finals victories in recent times to keep their unlikely premiership hopes alive. They will be confident of extending their run, too, after accounting for their semi-final opponent Geelong on neutral territory in round seven. The Cats, on the other hand, face the prospect of exiting the finals in straight sets after another strong home and away campaign. They are just 4-12 in finals since winning the 2011 flag.

WHERE AND WHEN: The Gabba, Saturday October 10, 7.40pm AEDT
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide 

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round seven: Collingwood 8.9 (57) d Geelong 5.5 (35)
Jordan De Goey kicked a season-high five goals in his return to the senior side, with his tally matching the Cats' despite them entering the game as the AFL's highest-scoring team. Geelong trailed by only 14 points at three-quarter time and closed within eight, but De Goey kicked all three of the Pies' final-term majors to hold the Cats off at Optus Stadium. Joel Selwood (hamstring) exited the game in the first quarter.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Geelong
The Cats have enjoyed great success making room for Tom Hawkins to work in this year, but the Coleman medallist had just two one-on-one marking contests against Collingwood last time. Hawkins averages more than double that. Jordan Roughead did a good job on him, with support from Darcy Moore and co. How Geelong adapts to Collingwood's highly rated defence will be interesting. At the other end, the Cats will be keen to place an extra defender in front of Mason Cox, who found too much space against the Eagles' much-vaunted backline.

Collingwood
The Pies partnered Brodie Grundy with Darcy Cameron last week against Nic Naitanui (and Oscar Allen), with Cameron starting in the ruck at the start of the third and fourth terms. Cameron was also the man at the crucial final centre bounce. However, Grundy had one of his better games for the 2020 season against the Cats, who played Darcy Fort and Esava Ratugolea that day. Rhys Stanley will be Grundy's main opponent on Saturday night. Expect Grundy to resume taking the lion's share of the ruck contests.

WHAT THE STATS SAY

Geelong is unbeaten in three matches at the Gabba this year – against North Melbourne (round 10), St Kilda (round 11) and Essendon (round 16) – with a 53-point differential in those games. Collingwood's 2020 record at the venue is 4-3.

The top-performing Cats in finals between 2010 and 2020 are Joel Selwood (16.1 AFL Player Rating points) and Patrick Dangerfield (15.5), while Darcy Moore (15.7) and Scott Pendlebury (15.5) are the highest-rating Pies.

Geelong forward Tom Hawkins averages 13 AFL Player Rating points in eight finals wins since 2010, but just 7.9 in 12 finals losses in the same period.

Collingwood won the disposal count by 41 over the Cats in round seven, one of just two occasions Geelong lost that category this season. The Magpies still out-tackled their rivals by 18 – their best differential and the Cats' worst.

Geelong ranks No.1 in the competition this year in disposal differential, contested possession differential and scores from stoppage, but 18th for kick forward percentage.

Nathan Buckley's men recorded the highest mark, play on percentage in the first week of the finals. However, most noticeable was their jump from averaging 19.8 points from stoppage in the home and away season to scoring 39 points from that source last week.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …

Geelong
This team is built to win now. The experienced Cats have done a fantastic job to remain a contender for so many years, but they've won only four finals in nine years. They had their chances against Port Adelaide last week – and straighter kicking may have seen them emerge victorious. However, the pressure will build on 2011 premiership coach Chris Scott if he can't translate home and away success into the same at finals time.

Collingwood
Finals specialist Mason Cox. Cox was managed when these sides played in round seven, but he was back to his best in a three-goal first-quarter binge that helped stun West Coast. So much was made of the Magpies' offensive struggles throughout the season, but an up-and-about Cox transforms them. De Goey ran riot against the Cats last time, so Cox has the potential to provide a dangerous one-two punch.

PREDICTION: Geelong by 15 points. The Cats have had an excellent season and Tom Hawkins will be desperate to respond to last week's goose egg, as well as the one in round seven.

PATRICK Dangerfield has dominated many big games and many finals before. But usually they haven't been from full-forward. 

Dangerfield was the centrepiece of Geelong's semi-final slaughter of Collingwood on Saturday night, as the Cats booked a preliminary final berth against Brisbane with a 68-point trashing of the listless Pies. 

CATS v PIES Full match coverage and stats 

The superstar midfielder was stationed deep in attack for the majority of the contest and was supreme in the Cats' dominant 15.10 (100) to 5.2 (32) victory at the Gabba on Saturday night. Remarkably, Collingwood was kept to one goal in the opening three quarters, with four late majors clawing them out of record-breaking lows.  

Dangerfield finished with four goals in a brilliant performance spent largely inside the forward 50, with the Brownlow medallist gathering 19 disposals, six marks and having an immeasurable impact on the result.  

The Cats' depth of midfield options gives coach Chris Scott the chance to use one of the competition's best ball-getters deep in attack and Dangerfield was up for the task, flying for grabs, splitting packs and creating even more goals than he kicked. 

The Cats entered the clash with their finals record under the spotlight and having won four of their past 16 finals games. But that monkey on their back quickly disappeared as they embarrassed the Magpies on neutral turf.   

After its thrilling elimination final win over West Coast last week in Perth, Collingwood was off the boil and was made to look third-rate by the Cats, who were as tough as they were slick. It was a meek ending for Nathan Buckley's men, even if their travel across the country appeared to have taken its toll. 

Mitch Duncan was among the Cats' best with 30 disposals, including 19 in the first half, while Cam Guthrie and Sam Menegola were also terrific. Defensive pair Tom Stewart and Lachie Henderson were also important in shutting down any chances for the impotent Pies, who had few winners as Geelong's barrage began early. 

FIVE THINGS WE LEARNED Danger signs ahead for Lions' defence

The Cats booted the first three goals of the game and had broken out to a 22-point lead by the first change.

Geelong champion Gary Ablett was involved early, setting up the first two goals, while Coleman medallist Tom Hawkins also got involved. 

Dangerfield, playing from deep in attack, helped extend that lead to start the second quarter with two bits of brilliance. The first came when he ran out of the goalsquare, crashed a pack and Luke Dahlhaus was there to take the spoils. 

The next was a mark pinned up against the boundary line, from which the superstar calmly slotted the checkside shot. Within moments the Cats had lifted to a 34-point lead, leaving Collingwood floundering.  

More Dangerfield magic, this time a holding-the-ball tackle and then another outside-the-boot banana goal, helped the Cats to a nine-goal lead at the main break after keeping the Magpies scoreless for the term. Before the Magpies could settle, the game – and their season – had been extinguished.  

The second half played out like the two sides were already thinking about next week: the Cats about preserving energy ahead of the preliminary final clash against the Lions and the Magpies ruing a finals shocker in real time.  

WHAT NOW? Pies primed for 'aggressive' Trade Period, De Goey's 'monetary' delay

GEELONG              4.4    9.6    9.8    15.10 (100)
COLLINGWOOD    1.0    1.0    1.1    5.2 (32)

GOALS
Geelong: Dangerfield 4, Hawkins 4, Dahlhaus, Guthrie, Menegola, Miers, Selwood, Stanley, Tuohy
Collingwood: Mihocek 2, Elliott, Grundy, Stephenson

BEST
Geelong: Dangerfield, Duncan, Stewart, Guthrie, Henderson, Menegola
Collingwood: Adams, Crisp, Quaynor, Thomas 

INJURIES
Geelong: Stanley (knee) 
Collingwood: Adams (elbow), Cox (ribs)