SUMMARY

Such has been the topsy-turvy nature of Brisbane and Carlton's seasons, it's easy to forget this is a repeat of last year's preliminary final.

The Lions recovered from a 2-5 start to fall just short of a top-four finish in 2024, while the Blues have lost six of their past eight, needing a Port Adelaide win over Fremantle in the final game of the home and away season just to sneak into the finals after being 11-4 and firmly entrenched in the top two.

Brisbane v Carlton at the Gabba, 7.30pm AEST 

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Brisbane: Conor McKenna
Carlton: Tom De Koning

LIONS v BLUES Follow it LIVE

There is an unpredictability about this clash, particularly given the Blues will be boosted by the returns of several key players.

Sam Docherty is back less than six months after rupturing his ACL against the Lions in Opening Round. Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay, Zac Williams and Adam Cerra also return, with Tom De Koning named Carlton's sub in his first game back from a foot fracture.

Where and when: Gabba, Saturday September 7, 7.30pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Opening Round: Carlton 13.8 (86) defeated Brisbane 12.13 (85) at the Gabba

In an incredible game at the Gabba in Opening Round, the Blues overturned a 46-point deficit to beat the Lions by one point. Harry McKay took a powerful mark and converted what proved to be the winning goal with 90 seconds remaining. McKay and Charlie Curnow combined for seven of Carlton's 13 goals, and the game was also the beginning of injury heartache for both clubs. Lion Keidean Coleman and Blue Sam Docherty suffered serious knee injuries. Docherty is set to make a remarkable return this weekend, which will mean his three most recent AFL games will have been against the Lions at the Gabba.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Brisbane
With just two losses since their round 12 bye, the Lions go into the finals as one of the competition's form teams. They are No.1 on the form ladder in that period. A key reason for their run has been their work in the contest. In this period, the Lions have won the contested possession count by 14.2 per game, which is also ranked No.1. Brisbane is also one of only two teams to average more than 100 points in this time.

Carlton
With concerns over Brisbane's conversion, could the Blues make the Lions pay by being clinical? Carlton has scored from 48.2 per cent of its inside 50s, ranked second, and scored a goal 26.7 per cent of the time, which is the best in the League. The Blues also have a shot at goal accuracy of 53.5 per cent, which ranks third. If Carlton can repeat this, it will go a long way towards it earning an upset victory. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Brisbane
The Lions' goalkicking has again become a concern and Joe Daniher could be the man to shape the elimination final. Brisbane is ranked 15th for shot at goal accuracy in 2024 and Daniher has been among their worst culprits. Of Lions to have had more than 30 shots at goal this season, only three – Daniher (44.6 per cent), Kai Lohmann (45.8) and Charlie Cameron (46.8) – have a shot at goal accuracy percentage worse than 50 per cent. Daniher has enjoyed a fine season, kicking 50 goals, but Brisbane has kicked 30.49 in its past three games, and the 8.16 it managed against Greater Western Sydney in round 22 probably cost it a top-four spot. The Lions can't afford to let wayward goalkicking be the reason they let a shot at a flag slip away and Daniher could be the man to lead the way.

Carlton
If the Blues are to upset the Lions and make a deep run this September, they will need a return to form from gun midfielder Sam Walsh. Last year's Gary Ayres Award winner as the best finals player, Walsh has dropped off after making a fine return from injury. Comparison his first 11 games of the year to his past eight, Walsh has dropped off for disposals (30.4 per game to 25.8), clearances (5.6 to 4.3), tackles (7.2 to 6.4), contested possessions (11.8 to 10.4) and uncontested possessions (17.6 to 16). Carlton needs the midfielder back to his best to support his captain, Patrick Cripps.

PREDICTION

While there is plenty of unpredictability about the Blues given they are set to regain several players, the Lions deserve favouritism given the way the second half of 2024 has panned out for both teams. Carlton has won just two of its past eight games and those victories came against bottom-three sides North Melbourne and West Coast. Brisbane's major issue has been its goalkicking, but the Lions have been one of the form sides of the competition to finish the season and should be good enough to progress. Brisbane by 15 points.

FOR A brief moment it looked like lightning could strike twice at the Gabba, but Brisbane halted a Carlton comeback to storm to a 28-point elimination final win on Saturday night.

The Lions swarmed their opponents in the first half, booting the game's first nine goals to set up the 14.15 (99) to 11.5 (71) victory.

LIONS v BLUES Full match coverage and stats

They will now head south to play Greater Western Sydney in a semi-final for the right to face Geelong the following week in a preliminary final.

The win could come at a cost though, with key defender Jack Payne subbed off at half-time with a knee injury that will be scanned in coming days.

Like its Opening Round loss to Carlton – where it surrendered a 46-point lead – Brisbane had some nervy second-half moments.

The start of the match was an emphatic statement by the Lions as they kept the Blues scoreless through the first term, the first side since North Melbourne in 1974 to have 0.0 next to its name at quarter-time in a final.

Brisbane led by a remarkable 60-0 late in the second quarter, before Carlton banged home five successive goals either side of the main break to reduce the deficit to 31.

The bumper home crowd was audibly nervous.

Brisbane steadied however, and despite some wayward kicking around goal, was never genuinely threatened.

The patched-up Blues were no match early on as the Lions won at stoppages, were clean at ground level and moved the ball with speed and precision, led by the fearless kicking of evergreen Dayne Zorko.

The recently named All-Australian finished with 29 disposals and was the catalyst for victory, taking brave kicks into the corridor and making swift decisions to spark the early onslaught.

Lachie Neale (27), Hugh McCluggage (24) and Will Ashcroft (20) were all influential.

Victory was bankrolled with an exhilarating first-half performance.

Cam Rayner set the tone with a strong overhead mark before wheeling around and drilling a goal from 55m.

Ashcroft, playing in his first final, looked right at home and was instrumental in setting up the next goal for Joe Daniher.

They led by 35 points at the first change, 48 at the half and unlike the corresponding match six months ago, there was no turning it around for the Blues despite their best efforts.

Neale won everything in tight, Zorko, McCluggage, Ashcroft and Darcy Wilmot used it well on the outside and the dynamic forward line all cashed in, with six multiple goalkickers, led by Rayner's three.

Nothing went right for the Blues in the first half, but they didn't help their own cause.

Harry McKay missed everything from 50m and, when Eric Hipwood took a mark 40m from goal, Carlton was more interested in remonstrating and didn't notice Daniher leading into an open goal.

They fought back in the second half, with sub Tom De Koning making a huge impact when he was inserted during the second quarter.

Cripps and Blake Acres tried hard, but there was too much left to too few.

Jack's pain
After being sidelined for seven weeks with a foot injury, the return of Jack Payne into Brisbane's backline was a welcome sight for the home team – but it was short-lived. Payne was playing a strong game opposed to Harry McKay but went to ground in the second quarter and hobbled off with a knee problem. Brisbane will hold its breath as the key defender is scanned early in the week.

Docherty's successful return
Six months after rupturing his ACL on the very same ground, Sam Docherty completed his remarkable return. He took a chest mark on the wing early in the first quarter to settle the nerves and was far, far from Carlton's worst. Docherty finished with 16 disposals and capped his game with a lovely goal on the run from just inside 50m in the final quarter. 

Lions' goalkicking woes return
It was a storyline over the final three weeks of the home and away season – costing them wins against GWS and Collingwood - and will be for the next week, but Brisbane's conversion around goal was again well below par. They kicked well in the first half, but as the Blues closed the gap in the third quarter the goalkicking wobbles returned. Youngster Logan Morris missed a set shot from 15m, Zac Bailey almost missed his boot from the goalsquare and suddenly the behinds flowed. The Blues never got close enough to punish them, but it's an issue that needs resolving.

BRISBANE   5.5    9.7   10.12   14.15 (99)
CARLTON    0.0    2.1     5.2     11.5 (71)

GOALS
Brisbane: Rayner 3, Daniher 2, Ah Chee 2, Morris 2, Lohmann 2, Cameron 2, Bailey
Carlton: McKay 3, Pittonet 2, E.Hollands, Hewett, Fantasia, Docherty, Cripps, Acres

BEST
Brisbane: McCluggage, Zorko, Ashcroft, Neale, Starcevich, Wilmot
Carlton: Cripps, Hewett, Acres, Newman, De Koning, Weitering

INJURIES
Brisbane: Payne (knee)
Carlton: Nil

SUBSTITUTES
Brisbane: Conor McKenna (replaced Jack Payne at half-time)
Carlton: Tom De Koning (replaced Matt Kennedy in the second quarter)

Crowd: 35,660 at the Gabba