THE LADDER is beginning to take shape, as Adelaide and Fremantle remain undefeated at the top, while Geelong and the Western Bulldogs edge ever closer to a first win of the season.
Unfortunately for Greater Western Sydney, it will sit out of round four as the side deals with health and safety protocols, which means St Kilda has to wait until Tuesday to play its first game since round three.
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Friday, February 4
Geelong v West Coast at GMHBA Stadium, 7.10pm AEDT
- Geelong came within two points of its first win last week, pushing the reigning premiers right until the final siren, without Nina Morrison no less. Despite the disappointment, that performance will give the Cats a heap of confidence as they return home to face the Eagles. The Cats have not won at home since February 2019, but that ten-game streak looks likely to come to an end on Friday.
- West Coast hasn’t had it easy, hubbing away from home since round two, winless and missing two scheduled games due to health and safety protocols. On Friday the Eagles need to be on the move, consistently creating options down the field to keep an impressive defensive duo of Meg McDonald and Maddy McMahon on their toes. Against Adelaide, they were caught flat footed inside 50 so didn't give themselves best chance at setting up set shots. They cannot be still in attack because Geelong will intercept and rebound at will.
- Tip: It's a tough ask for the Eagles, coming up against a confident and hungry Geelong. Cats by 20 points.
Saturday, February 5
Brisbane v Collingwood at Maroochydore Multi-Sports Complex, 4.10pm AEST
- Since its return in round three, Brisbane has created plenty of opportunities at goal, registering 30 scoring shots across two matches. Unfortunately, the accuracy of those shots has left a little to be desired, converting just 25 per cent of the time against Geelong last week. Against a tough Collingwood defence, it is important the Lions make more of the opportunities they create.
- Collingwood will be raring to rectify its round four performance, which produced the club's lowest score and fewest inside 50s in its history. Finding marks inside 50 will assist the Pies to be more considered in its attempts to score, and help them find more control of the ball in the forward half.
- Tip: These sides played off twice last year, including a prelim, for a total margin of just seven points, and this one is likely to be just as close. Brisbane by three points.
Melbourne v Gold Coast at Casey Fields, 7.10pm AEDT
- Melbourne will be frustrated it couldn't get its controlled, short kicking game going against Adelaide in round four, while Gold Coast will no doubt have identified that the best route to beat the Demons is to apply pressure right across the field. The Suns are a handy pressure side, averaging 66 tackles each game, but they need to apply that across the whole match as any reprieve will see Melbourne steal momentum and pile on the goals.
- An ACL injury to Jade Pregelj exposes Gold Coast's backline, which is less than ideal coming up against a stacked Melbourne forward line. It's important that the Suns' defence doesn't push too high and allow scores over the back, where Pregelj would typically be sitting as a goalkeeper.
- Tip: Melbourne will be hell bent on getting back to the winners list. Melbourne by 15 points.
Sunday, February 6
Western Bulldogs v Richmond at VU Whitten Oval, 1.10pm AEDT
- The Western Bulldogs came tantalisingly close to its first win of the season on Tuesday night, and will look to take that momentum into this home fixture against Richmond, which will also serve as the side's replacement Pride match. Around the ball, the trio of Ellie Blackburn, Kirsty Lamb and Jess Fitzgerald is growing stronger each game, and all look dangerous around forward stoppages.
- Richmond has become vulnerable at each end of the ground, missing both Harriet Cordner in defence and Courtney Wakefield up forward. In their round one win, the Tigers took seven marks inside 50, making use of Wakefield's presentation at the ball, but have taken just three in each of their games since. Finding alternative methods of attack has been a slow process, and Katie Brennan is being asked to fill a lot of the gaps created by missing players. More experienced forwards like Tayla Stahl and Christina Bernardi need to help carry more of the weight that is currently landing on Brennan's shoulders.
- Tip: The Dogs have been able to re-establish their backline, and that will hold them in good stead against the Tigers. Western Bulldogs by two points.
Carlton v Adelaide at Ikon Park, 3.10pm AEDT
- Carlton has really struggled to find any efficiency in its game style this year, inviting pressure with high, looping disposals that make teammates wait to receive the ball and stunting any speed or fluidity in the transition down the ground. The concern coming up against Adelaide is that the Crows have put on masterclasses in applying pressure each week. The Blues need to be more considered with their ball use if they're to stand any chance against Adelaide.
- Meanwhile, the Crows are one of two steamrollers in the competition over the first half of the season. In three of their four games, they have identified a forward with momentum and used them as the main avenue to goal, while other forwards provide support and create space. It is a damaging attack that, if one forward is being shut down, there are a number of other options capable of kicking multiple goals.
- Tip: Adelaide will continue to plow through its opponents as it looks to make a fourth finals series in six years. Adelaide by 30 points.
North Melbourne v Fremantle at North Hobart Oval, 5.10pm AEDT
- It took North Melbourne two rounds to find the high scoring side we know it to be, but it has managed to pile on 105 points in the past fortnight, establishing that scoreboard pressure once again. The drive Emma Kearney has offered splitting off the half backline, and the fresh combination of Mia King, Ash Riddell and Jenna Bruton on the ball has generated plenty of opportunities in attack.
- Fremantle might be without the irreplaceable Kiara Bowers, but the growth of Hayley Miller, and addition of draftee Dana East makes this a less concerning proposition than it may have been in the past. Importantly, finding a bit more efficiency in the forward line than they were able to against the Western Bulldogs will serve the Dockers' ability to control territory better.
- Tip: North Melbourne has started to hit its straps this season, and will challenge the Dockers, but not quite enough. Fremantle by five points.
Tuesday, February 8
St Kilda v West Coast at Trevor Barker Beach Oval, 5.10pm
- St Kilda has had to sit on the sidelines as two matches were postponed due to opposition unavailability. This has given the Saints extra time to reflect on a really strong three quarters against Melbourne, and also one quarter where they were cut open and exposed. Against the Eagles, they need to go back to that early round three performance where they were calmly picking out options forward of the ball and finding more outside ball rather than relying so heavily on their work from contest to contest.
- West Coast needs to find a little more dare in its game, and against the Saints they have a real opportunity to do so. The Eagles should consider hitting up shorter options on the angle rather than consistently kicking long down the line, while being more thoughtful about how they choose to move the ball forward will be important.
- Tip: The Saints will be keen to take the positives from their round three game and build on those after sitting out for two weeks. St Kilda by 12 points.
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