THE PENULTIMATE home and away round is imminent, with teams still jostling for spots in the top six and, crucially, the top two.
Each of the current top six are set to line up against one another in three fascinating match ups, while the remaining eight sides will be focused on finishing their home and away season positively. Both Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs will also be fighting to keep slim hopes of a finals berth alive.
2022 FIXTURE Every match, every round
Saturday, March 5
St Kilda v Geelong at RSEA Park, 3.10pm AEDT
- Both teams got wins last week, Geelong relatively convincingly and St Kilda in a dramatic ending once again. The latter has also lost Rhi Watt for the remainder of the season due to an ACL injury which is significant in the context of the Saints' ruck presence. While Geelong and St Kilda are averaging the equal-fewest hitouts across the competition this year with just 17.9 per game, the Cats have still managed to average 20.3 clearances each game. The Saints, meanwhile, are winning the fewest clearances in the competition with just 17.8 per game. The Cats need to make the most of this advantage, be more controlled when transitioning from those contests to their runners as they were able to do against Richmond last week, and if they can do this it will be tough for the Saints to get on top.
- Each side's method of attack has a differing weakness. Geelong is getting the ball inside 50 the least of any side, just 21.3 times per game but is then fairly reliable at getting a shot on goal once the ball is in there. St Kilda is able to get the ball into attack a little more often, but are then only converting that to a shot on goal just 36.6 per cent of the time — the lowest conversion in the league.
- Geelong has shown more consistent improvement this year, while the Saints will find it hard to cover the loss of Watt both in the ruck and backline. Geelong by five points.
WATCH IT LIVE Saints v Cats
Greater Western Sydney v Richmond at GIANTS Stadium, 5.10pm AEDT
- Injuries and player unavailability has plagued both the Giants and Tigers this year, causing them to be inconsistent. Impressive at their best, but totally dominated at their worst. As part of this, both sides are allowing the most marks inside 50 to be taken on them, with 7.6 each week. At times, an inability to slow opposition ball movement higher up the field has left their backlines out to dry as key forwards have found aerial control. Another key to this metric is defences always remaining switched on, not assuming that they can take a rest as an opposition player lines up for goal. We saw the Giants caught out in this respect more than once last week.
- Richmond's efficiency inside 50 is also a concern for the Giants. The Tigers average a goal 21.7 per cent of the time they go inside 50, while GWS concedes the most shots on goal (16.8) and shot efficiency (52.3 per cent) of any team this year. If they are to combat Richmond's efficiency, the Giants need to apply pressure high up the field and not allow the Tigers any easy ball movement in the forward half.
- This will really come down to whoever can control territory better. GWS by one point.
WATCH IT LIVE Giants v Tigers
Fremantle v Melbourne at Optus Stadium, 4.00pm AWST
- This is a game that will be decided by how each team navigates the contest and pressure. Fremantle averages the most tackles in the competition with 71.8 per game, which is a key part of the side's game. This won't worry the Demons too much, however, as they've been conceding an average of 73.5 tackles per game this year. This is largely because Melbourne is very good at limiting opponent possession, conceding just 196.1 disposals each game, and when they do cough up the ball they are very rarely conceding uncontested possessions. This means Melbourne's opponents use the ball inefficiently and aren't able to find any sense of calm and control around the field.
- Last year these two teams played in two crucial games, with the Demons enjoying victory both times—one in WA and one in Victoria. This time around the Dockers will be without important key defender Janelle Cuthbertson, while Melbourne has the addition of Tayla Harris in attack. Fremantle's choice of matchup for Harris will be key to limiting Melbourne's scoreboard pressure, as we've seen Harris get ascendancy over smaller or less experienced opponents in recent weeks.
- While Fremantle have the advantage of a home game, the protection of the Optus Stadium grandstands will play into Melbourne's hands. Melbourne by four points.
WATCH IT LIVE Dockers v Demons
West Coast v Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, 6.40pm AWST
- West Cost is coming off the biggest loss in competition history, while the Bulldogs allowed Collingwood to kick its highest-ever score last week. Both will be focused on redemption after disappointing losses last week. The Dogs will be without important key defender Ellyse Gamble due to suspension, but given the flexibility of their list — specifically Sarah Hartwig playing up forward since Gamble's return — this shouldn't worry them too much this weekend.
- The Western Bulldogs got on top of Adelaide in round six thanks to quick, clean clearances out of the middle that kept what is a typically organised backline under the pump. This is the ideal way to get control of the Eagles, as they are conceding 6.9 centre clearances each game. Powerful breakaway clearances from players like Ellie Blackburn, Kirsty Lamb and Jess Fitzgerald would be a worst case scenario for West Coast.
- The Dogs aren't going to be caught out for a second game in a row. Bulldogs by 20 points.
WATCH IT LIVE Eagles v Bulldogs
Sunday, March 6
Brisbane v North Melbourne at VU Whitten Oval, 1.10pm AEDT
- Brisbane is coming off the biggest win in AFLW history, while the Kangaroos are looking to rectify a frustrating loss in this one. Originally scheduled to be played at Maroochydore, the game was moved to Whitten Oval due to extreme weather in Queensland. Inaugural Lions Ally Anderson and Emily Bates are set to play their 50th AFLW match, akin to 100 games in the men's competition.
- When these sides met in round eight last year, North Melbourne's stars rose to the top, with four players winning 20 or more disposals, but it was the even contribution from the Lions that eventually won out. This year Brisbane is squeezing games into its attacking half, conceding just 21.5 inside 50s per game. North Melbourne has been competent in terms of getting the ball into its front half, but the way in which it has been done leaves a lot to be desired. Often the Kangaroos pile on the inside 50s — enough to make them third in the competition for the metric this year — but rarely do they put the ball to their forwards' advantage. If they continue with this style in attack, and the Lions effectively limit those opportunities, it could be a long day for the Roos.
- Brisbane's team-first attitude and ability to hit the scoreboard will prove too much for the Kangaroos. Brisbane by 25 points.
WATCH IT LIVE Lions v Kangaroos
Adelaide v Collingwood at Norwood Oval, 2.40pm ACDT
- Ebony Marinoff will round out a trio of players to reach 50 games on Sunday as she lines up against the Pies, and will be a key cog of Adelaide's side as it aims to retain their position atop the ladder. Reflected in Marinoff's statistical trend, the Crows aren't relying on winning clearances to get the upper hand this year. Their focus is far more on the outside and an uncontested kick-mark game maintained in their forward half.
- Collingwood registered its highest-ever AFLW score last week off the back of spread and a willingness to run defensively. This will be crucial if they are to challenge Adelaide, particularly without Britt Bonnici out there. Limiting Adelaide's ability to find space and become an option for the ball carrier will be really important, and the Pies showed they have the assets to do this, now they just need to execute.
- Adelaide is on a tear and plays the narrow Norwood Oval expertly. Adelaide by 15 points.
WATCH IT LIVE Crows v Magpies
Carlton v Gold Coast at Ikon Park, 5.10pm AEDT
- Carlton has hit a sweet patch of form in recent games, winning its last two off the back of an improved defensive effort through the midfield and forward line. It's important for the Blues to keep this defensive running going against Gold Coast, as the Suns' forward combination of Sarah Perkins, Tara Bohanna and Kate Surman can be tough for a backline to contain if the ball in coming in quickly, and are known to score very quickly when they gain momentum.
- The ruck battle will be interesting in this one. Reining All-Australian ruck Breann Moody has continued her good form, averaging 19.4 hitouts, 11.7 disposals and 3.1 inside 50s this year. Moody plays effectively as an extra midfielder for the Blues, also moving forward and able to hit the scoreboard at times. Lauren Bella is a much more pure ruck, focused on work in the air at stoppages. Bella averages a competition-high 21.3 hitouts and 1.4 clearances this year, but isn't quite able to impact the play outside of those stoppages like Moody is.
- Carlton has found some momentum and grit, and that will continue into round nine, but the Suns won't let them off easy. Carlton by four points.
WATCH IT LIVE Blues v Suns
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