WITH round one in the books, some teams will be focused on maintaining the success they enjoyed last weekend, while others will be determined to atone for a missed opportunity.
Melbourne's round opener against the Kangaroos has been moved to the MCG on Friday afternoon, allowing for both sides to showcase their skilful ball movement, and on Saturday we will see the first matchup in AFLW history between Richmond and Adelaide. Maddy Prespakis and Georgia Gee will take on former side Carlton, as will new Hawks Tilly Lucas-Rodd and Kate McCarthy when they go up against the Saints.
Melbourne v North Melbourne at the MCG, 5:00pm AEST
These two sides have played off four times in AFLW history, with the Demons claiming victory in the last three. Something Melbourne has been consistently good at since the competition began is generating scores from a significant number of its inside 50s, but only recently has it made the most of those scoring opportunities. Last season the Demons kicked a goal from 20.4 per cent of their forward 50 entries, and against Adelaide in round one they improved on that again, registering a goal efficiency of 20.7 per cent. The Kangaroos simply cannot allow Melbourne any time or space in its attacking 50 lest they hand over repeat scoring opportunities, because the Demons have finally started to capitalise.
Since joining the competition, North Melbourne has been focused on winning more uncontested ball than it does contested, allowing the side to pick its way down the field. The only game in season six where the Roos were forced into more contested possession was round eight against Melbourne. Going at 57.8 per cent disposal efficiency – a season low – they ultimately lost that game by 10 points. What round one has suggested, however, is that the Roos are now less reliant on that outside game and perfect ball use, albeit against the battling Gold Coast. If they can stand up in a similar way to Melbourne's pressure around the ball, they're a chance to win their first match against the Demons since round four, 2019.
Tip: Against a tougher opponent, the Kangaroos won't enjoy quite as much control. Melbourne by 10 points.
Richmond v Adelaide at the Swinburne Centre, 11:40am AEST
For the first time in its four seasons, Richmond will take on reigning premier Adelaide. The Tigers will no doubt be ruing not taking their chances in the first half against Geelong on Sunday, kicking four consecutive behinds in the second quarter. Accuracy in front of goal was Richmond's key asset last season, kicking at 50.5 per cent, so with this falling away the side looks exposed, and far less dangerous. The Tigers simply cannot afford to waste opportunities to score this week, given Adelaide's ability to significantly limit its opponents' shots on goal.
Adelaide won its third flag off the back of incredible discipline and structure. Last Friday that was taken from them by a well-drilled Demons side but coming up against a less experienced Tigers outfit they will look to get their season back on track. The Crows won 23 clearances – six of which were in the centre – which is where they will win control and dominance on Saturday. Added to this, without the ball they laid 71 tackles. Last week Richmond didn't stand up to the pressure Geelong brought, and Adelaide is a whole new level in that respect.
Tip: The Crows won't lose two in a row. Adelaide by 25 points.
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs at Alberton Oval, 1:10 ACST
Port Adelaide's AFLW team will play at the club's historic home of Alberton for the first time this weekend, where it will be looking to register its first ever win. Last week the side laid 92 tackles - the most of any team in its first game - but when they got ball in hand, they only used it at 55.1 per cent efficiency. Added to that, they only took a shot on goal from 33.3 per cent of its inside 50s. Coming up against a Western Bulldogs side with plenty of confidence and skill, Port Adelaide needs to ensure it makes more of the disposal they do win, especially once in attack.
For the Bulldogs, it's all about maintaining concentration from siren to siren. Against Greater Western Sydney last week they conceded the final score of every quarter, narrowing the margin after controlling much of the game. Outside of this, their new two-pronged attack of Gabby Newton and Celine Moody offers a great combination of aerial strength and ground level pressure. Each kicking two goals, Moody took three marks inside 50, while Newton laid nine tackles for the game, five of which were inside 50. The pair have great potential to stretch a Port Adelaide defensive line that is still finding its feet.
Tip: Port Adelaide will work hard, but the chemistry of the established Bulldogs will ultimately win out. Western Bulldogs by 15 points.
Fremantle v Geelong at Fremantle Oval, 11:40am AWST
The Dockers' start to the season was tough, already thin for available players they came up against a raging Brisbane and lost two further players due to a head clash - both defenders. Despite consistently winning clearances, they used the ball at just 49.7 per cent efficiency and took only 25 marks for the game which starved them of any control on the game. Against Geelong it is important they maintain that strength at stoppages but find more efficiency once the ball has been won.
Geelong, which snatched a last-gasp win in round one, was wasteful going forward particularly early in the game. With Richmond playing an extra in defence, the Cats regularly kicked straight to the outnumber and saw the ball fly back over their heads. The question here is whether Fremantle has the personnel to exploit this poor decision making going inside 50 this weekend. Without Janelle Cuthbertson or Jess Low they may choose to throw Aine Tighe behind the play, given her incredible intercepting ability. That, however, does rob the forward line of height and structure, opening the door for Meg McDonald and Shelley Scott to play their own intercepting game at the other end of the ground.
Tip: The Cats have never come within 16 points of Fremantle; this one will be much closer. Fremantle by two points.
Essendon v Carlton at ETU Stadium, 11:10am AEST
Essendon started its AFLW journey with a bang last weekend, showing off its strong and dynamic forward set up. The Bombers' 53 points is the highest score of any team on debut, as was their 12 marks inside 50. But it wasn't only in the air where they found dominance in attack, they also laid 15 tackles from 36 inside 50s to create repeat opportunities. This forward-half game sets them up well to take on Carlton this weekend, who showed their vulnerabilities in this area in round one.
Over several years, the Blues have built a reliable defensive line that uses the ball better than any other line, but the inundation of Collingwood's forward 50 entries last week exposed them and forced poor ball use. They simply cannot allow Essendon to do the same this week, particularly given how adept the Bombers are at bringing that sort of heat once in their attacking half. This starts with strength around the contest, but more importantly, smart decision making once they do win the ball through the middle of the ground. Carlton has strong marking targets up front, but they need to send it into attack to get the likes of Phoebe McWilliams and Mia Austin into the game.
Tip: Carlton will have learned from round one and will find more ball in the front half. Carlton by five points.
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Collingwood v Sydney at Victoria Park, 1:10pm AEST
The Pies have taken a leaf out of Adelaide's book this season and it showed against Carlton last week. Push forward, have a disciplined defensive structure, intercept rebounds, and turn up the pressure. Even the well-drilled Blues backline couldn't stand up to their intensity last week, so there are concerns for the Swans' defence that is still finding its feet. The bonus of this style of play from Collingwood is that it relies less on immediate reward from clearances than they have in the past.
In their first match the Swans started strongly and competed well at the contest but seemed slightly overawed once the heat was applied. Coming out of defence they became predictable, looking to use the corridor more often than not and choosing shallow options when going forward. The intelligence of Collingwood especially in defence will take advantage of this and really suffocate the new side. To combat this, Sydney needs to be clever in how they make the most of the clearances they do win, and force the Pies to defend one on one, instead of letting them come off and support one another.
Tip: The effort will be there for Sydney, but the experience and chemistry of the Pies will win out. Collingwood by 30 points.
Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane at Manuka Oval, 3:10pm AEST
Armed with a new game style focused on quick, attacking run, the Giants now must face a big challenge in the Lions. In five starts against Brisbane, GWS is yet to come away with a win. A key part of this is the reliance on Alyce Parker in the midfield, and Brisbane's ability to limit her output. Across her career Parker averages 20.3 disposals and 4.6 clearances, but in her three games against the Lions those metrics drop away to 15 disposals and 1.3 clearances. Powerful midfielder Cathy Svarc often gets the job on Parker and is not only able to shut her down but play an impressive attacking game of her own. This is something Parker will no doubt have prepared for.
Brisbane, meanwhile, has started the season with little change in personnel or attitude. In a ruthless performance against Fremantle on Sunday, the Lions' spread in attack was to be feared. They enjoyed seven individual goalkickers for the game, four of which kicked multiple goals, and it is unlikely the Giants' defence will be able to close down all of those options sufficiently to minimise the pain on the scoreboard. They have the height of Jesse Wardlaw and Taylor Smith - plus Dakota Davidson when she is not supporting the backline - and the ground level agility of Greta Bodey and Courtney Hodder, which is enough to frighten any defensive unit.
Tip: Despite a bright start under new coach Cam Bernasconi, the Giants won't be able to get the job done. Brisbane by 28 points.
Hawthorn v St Kilda at Box Hill City Oval, 4:10pm AEST
The Hawks put up a good fight against Essendon on Saturday but faded late which saw the scoreboard blow out. They were able to achieve deep forward 50 entries and had really active small forwards at ground level. This will be crucial to breaking past St Kilda's proactive defensive line on Sunday. The Hawks' key forwards must force the likes of Clara Fitzpatrick, Bec Ott and Bianca Jakobsson to be accountable and not allow them to move in support of one another. If they can do that and achieve deep entries - ideally within 30m of goal - they will take away on of the Saints' main assets from last week.
At the other end of the ground, Kate Shierlaw played a smart game. Ensuring she had the front position against an inexperienced Sydney defence, she was able to protect the ball as it came into her and mark on the lead, resulting in a career-best four goals. Hawthorn's backline cannot allow Shierlaw to play in front, instead they need to force the wrestle and newfound defender Tegan Cunningham looks to be the ideal matchup on her.
Tip: The Saints look likely to win the opening two games of a season for the first time in their history. St Kilda by 15 points.
Gold Coast v West Coast at Metricon Stadium, 5:10pm AEST
After an off season spent rebuilding its forward line, the Eagles reaped the rewards on the weekend against Port Adelaide, albeit in a flurry in the final quarter. They had six individual goal kickers, which was the most in club history and scored from 50 per cent of their inside 50s. This kind of damaging performance in attack hasn't been seen from the Eagles before and if they can find that consistently, they have the potential to become a damaging side. Up against a thin Gold Coast defence, they can really make the most of that attacking spread. This presents as a particularly exciting opportunity for talented draftee Ella Roberts to dominate the air up forward.
Last season the Suns built their game around high pressure and winning clearances. Against North Melbourne, while they stood strong at the contest, only losing the clearances by two, they just couldn't keep up around the ground. They used the ball poorly when trying to move into the forward half, and this is something the Eagles will look to capitalise on, intercepting across half back and sending it straight back into attack.
Tip: The Eagles will have the best start to their season in history. West Coast by five points.
