SUDDENLY it is week three of season seven and the beginning of a two-week Indigenous round. Clubs have been unveiling their Indigenous guernseys, and each will play a home Indigenous round game either this week or next.
This weekend will also feature two state-based derbies, an established rivalry between Brisbane and Gold Coast, and a burgeoning one in NSW between Sydney and Greater Western Sydney. Adelaide and North Melbourne also looms as game of the round, as two contenders go head to head.
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle at Ikon Park, 5:10pm AEST
Ellie Blackburn will bring up her 50th AFLW game against the same side she faced in game number one: Fremantle. The Dogs and Dockers have played off against one another five times throughout AFLW history, with the latter winning each of the last three, but Friday's game shapes quite differently from recent encounters. The Bulldogs have been focused on controlling the ball more this season, averaging 52 marks across their first two games, eight more than they did last season, while Fremantle has gone in the opposite direction, averaging 20 fewer marks so far this season.
In addition to this, the Dogs are protecting their backs more efficiently, conceding 10 fewer inside 50s each week across their opening two wins. Again, in opposite fashion, Fremantle is averaging just 18.5 inside 50s and 2.5 marks inside 50 this season, down 12 and three on those respective metrics compared to earlier this year. The power that the Western Bulldogs can generate out of the middle is missing for the Dockers this season, which will set the home side up for a game where they control territory and inundate the Dockers' defensive line.
Tip: It only gets tougher for the Dockers. Western Bulldogs by 20 points.
Adelaide v North Melbourne at Unley Oval, 12:10am ACST
Two strong sides who currently sit with one win and one loss to start the season, both have made tweaks to their season six game style to adapt and improve. Adelaide hasn't been the clean, suffocating side that saw it win the flag last season, but it has shown the ability to flick the switch and pull a game back into its grasp. The Crows on average are winning more clearances than they did last season, looking to gain control from the source, but seem to be lacking a big marking target up forward and are succumbing to poorer use of the ball around the ground.
North Melbourne, however, has become a more contested side than we have seen in the past. A side that has become not only strong in its own skill, but in what it takes away from the opposition, the pressure game they brought last week to almost fell Melbourne will further force poor ball use from the Crows. Added to this, the improvement of Kim Rennie in the ruck allows Emma King to spend more time in attack, stretching opposition defences that now must cover King, Tahlia Randall, and the emerging Sophia McCarthy. This makes life harder for those Adelaide defenders who like to come off and intercept the ball at will.
Tip: In a close one, North Melbourne will even the ledger. Kangaroos by three points.
Sydney v Greater Western Sydney at the SCG, 2:40 AEST
Greater Western Sydney is limping into the very first NSW derby in round three. Chloe Dalton has been sidelined for eight weeks with a hamstring injury, Tait Mackrill and Pepa Randall will miss the remainder of the season with respective foot and knee injuries. These personnel concerns will force structural changes which will ultimately hurt their new, running game style. Without Mackrill at the contest, more falls on the already heavy shoulders of Alyce Parker, and will likely see Alicia Eva move back on the ball, limiting the outside time she has previously enjoyed.
The Swans have started their AFLW journey brightly but are still without a win. What will allow them to take a step ahead is becoming able to adapt to game situations. Realising that they have a reliable midfield group that will be able to take it to the Giants, Sydney needs to maintain its discipline and structure around the contest to make the most of their ability to win clearances. The other key for Sydney if it is to snatch its first win is making smarter decisions when moving into attack. Without Randall organising the backline for the Giants, Sydney's forwards need to be switched on to take opportunities that creates.
Tip: The Giants' injuries will open the door for little sister in the first derby. Sydney by one point.
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Geelong v Collingwood at GMHBA Stadium, 4:10pm AEST
The Cats' improvement is evident, as they sit atop the ladder two rounds into the season, and in a way, they are treading the path worn by this week's opponent in Collingwood. What Geelong has done very well so far this season is its defensive chemistry and the rebound created from that. Last season they were conceding an average of 26.6 inside 50s, but over the past fortnight have conceded an average of just 22.5, with their pressure and structure higher up the ground looking more reliable than it ever has before. Where they have looked a little shaky, however, is creating scoreboard pressure once in attack. The Cats are goaling from just 8.1 per cent of their inside 50s, despite taking more shots on goal.
Geelong is in a similar position to what Collingwood was a year ago, tough behind the ball but struggling to score. The positive for the Pies is that they have found more reliable avenues to attack and look more dangerous than ever. So far this season they are averaging 36 inside 50s - up from 25.2 last season - and have goaled through eight different players. This attacking spread is something the Pies have been working toward for several seasons and is the last piece to their puzzle.
Tip: The Cats have improved, but the Pies are one step ahead. Collingwood by 15 points.
Brisbane v Gold Coast at the Gabba, 4:40pm AEST
After a tense first QClash that ended in a draw, the Lions have taken control of the northern state, stacking on 150 points to Gold Coast's 18 in their two recent meetings. The Suns' pressure game has only improved, averaging 76.5 tackles across the first two rounds, and it will be vital in slowing the ball movement of the Lions.
Brisbane's attack has been prolific to start the season, kicking more points in the first two rounds than any side has before and scoring through eleven individual goalkickers so far. All of that starts in the middle of the ground, where the hard work of players like Emily Bates, Ally Anderson and Cathy Svarc gets the ball moving forward. Gold Coast really needs to hold up through the middle of the ground if it is going to limit the pressure on its defensive unit. Vivien Saad, Serene Watson and Lauren Ahrens will have their hands full with Jesse Wardlaw, Taylor Smith and Zimmie Farquharson, so it is vital the Suns restrict Brisbane's ball movement into attack.
Tip: It will be another big QClash win for the Lions. Brisbane by 40 points.
Carlton v Port Adelaide at Ikon Park, 12:10pm AEST
Despite not yet registering a win yet, Port Adelaide has brought immense pressure around the ball which has already become its trademark. Seven Power players have laid ten or more tackles so far this season, led by Maria Moloney with 18. This intensity through the middle of the ground will go a long way toward unsettling Carlton, who has unearthed a number of young outside runners who love to tuck the ball under their arm. Their biggest concern, however, will be Breann Moody's dominance at the stoppages. She will no doubt be Carlton's biggest asset in winning the ball at its source.
Neither Carlton or Port Adelaide have finished games strongly this season, scoring one point combined in final quarters, while conceding 60 points combined in that time. Without Gemma Houghton spearheading its forward line, Port Adelaide will need some of its less experienced forwards to really have a presence, because at the other end of the ground, the AFLW's leading goalkicker in Darcy Vescio will be taking every possible chance.
Tip: Port Adelaide will put up a good fight, but the Blues will build on last week's win. Carlton by 15 points.
St Kilda v Narrm at RSEA Park, 2:10pm AEST
Sitting second on the ladder and feeling dangerous, St Kilda faces its first real established side this weekend. To date the Saints have capitalised on their opponents' poor decision making going inside 50, working well as a unit, intercepting, and then driving the ball forward. This has been assisted by a strong midfield unit and new ruck Erin McKinnon. They won't be afforded that comfort against Narrm, who has built its recent success on clever ball movement and genuine skill.
With quick duo Alyssa Bannan and Casey Sherriff in attack, Narrm will be best placed if it can get the ball over the back of tall defenders Clara Fitzpatrick, Bec Ott and Bianca Jakobsson, and exploit the Saints' comparative lack of speed in defence. In defence, Tahlia Gillard looks to be a good matchup for season leading goalkicker Kate Shierlaw, while Libby Birch is a chance to get the job on Caitlin Greiser, who slotted three of her own last week.
Tip: The Saints will take strong momentum into this game, but ultimately the Demons will win out. Narrm by 10 points.
For the duration of AFLW Indigenous Round, the Demons will be rebranded as the Narrm Football Club. Narrm is the Aboriginal name for Melbourne which comes from the Woi Wurrung language, spoken by the traditional owners of the city and its surrounds.
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Richmond v Hawthorn at the Swinburne Centre, 4:10pm AEST
Richmond was tipped to be the big improver this season, but so far has failed to capitalise on the development it has shown. Goaling from just eight per cent of its forward 50 entries, the Tigers' biggest asset of last season - forward efficiency - has disappeared. Keeping the ball in attack is one thing, but the biggest challenge for them against Hawthorn is to exploit a less experienced defensive unit and pile on a big score for the first time this season.
Similarly, the Hawks last week did well to move the ball into attack, but simply cannot transition that into scores. Now, without ruck support Tamara Luke and experienced utility Louise Stephenson, the challenge becomes even tougher. Stephenson has been important to the Hawks when it comes to winning the ball at centre bounces, so without her Tilly Lucas-Rodd must take on even more responsibility through the middle, and their brigade of talented young players also need to be a real presence at the contest. Without that, the class of Monique Conti and Grace Egan will see the Tigers waltz from stoppages and take command of the game.
Tip: The Tigers will post their first win of the season. Richmond by 16 points.
West Coast v Essendon at Mineral Resources Park, 4:10pm AWST
Both West Coast and Essendon have played their best footy in final quarters so far this season. The Eagles snatched a win in round one thanks to a four-goal fourth quarter, and the Bombers very nearly did the same thing to Carlton last week. What will separate these teams, however, will be the midfield battle. The Bombers have the likes of Maddy Prespakis, Jacqui Vogt and Alana Barba on the ball, with co-captain Bonnie Toogood injected when they need a point of difference. The Eagles have Emma Swanson, Bella Lewis, and Aisling McCarthy, with several young talents who can lend a hand. It will be a tough, skilful battle all night.
McCarthy has proven to be a valuable asset, not only in winning her own ball but stopping an opponent. The question is whether coach Michael Prior will send her to play a role on a specific Don this week. Prespakis is the obvious choice, winning plenty of the ball and getting forward to impact the scoreboard, but another option could be Steph Cain who has been playing in various roles to start the season and proved damaging right across the ground.
Tip: The Bombers will surge home to grab a second win. Essendon by 12 points.
