THIS weekend will see a full complement of 18 sides run out in specially designed Pride guernseys to celebrate the now annual Pride Round. The round will also feature a Pride double header on Saturday at Ikon Park with Essendon, Sydney, Geelong and West Coast all featuring across the afternoon.
The round is headlined by a huge top of the table clash between Brisbane and Adelaide, back at Metricon Stadium for the first time since the inaugural Grand Final back in 2017, meanwhile Carlton, Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs will be playing to keep their top eight hopes alive.
FRIDAY
Carlton v Richmond at Ikon Park, 6.30pm AEDT
Coming off the back of Carlton's best performance of the season to date, the Blues must back it up against a tough, relentless Richmond side that is on track to make its first ever finals series. The Tigers have not beaten the Blues in their two matches so far, although their last battle was a thriller as the former pushed hard for their first ever win, ultimately falling by just five points.
The Blues are winning the ball consistently at the contest, averaging 25.9 clearances, but haven't yet been able to reliably connect that with attacking chains. It is that transition to the outside and linking play that has really let them down this season, which looms as an issue given Richmond's impressive intercepting game from which it has been launching attacks. Carlton has the advantage of dominant ruck duo Breann Moody and Jess Good - off the back of whom the Blues are averaging the most hitouts in competition history with 37.4 - while Richmond will again be relying on Gab Seymour to get the job done. It is likely we'll see Seymour focus more on supporting the midfield ground at ground level thanks to her athleticism, almost conceding that aerial battle.
Tip: Carlton will put up a good fight in captain Kerryn Peterson's 50th game, but the Tigers will find a way to win again. Richmond by five points.
PRIDE ROUND Every club's specially designed guernsey
Brisbane v Adelaide at Metricon Stadium, 7.30pm AEST
For the first time since the inaugural Grand Final in 2017, Brisbane and Adelaide will face off at Metricon Stadium as the best two teams in the competition. Each side is likely to have five players from that game out on the park on Friday: Ally Anderson, Emily Bates, Shannon Campbell, Bre Koenen and Kate Lutkins for Brisbane, Sarah Allan, Anne Hatchard, Ebony Marinoff, Chelsea Randall, and Stevie-Lee Thompson for Adelaide. Across their seven head-to-head matchups, Brisbane is narrowly ahead with four wins compared to Adelaide's three and they average almost identical average scores against one another.
Clearances will be an interesting watch. While the sides break even at centre stoppages, it is around the ground that Adelaide is really dominating clearance numbers, becoming really dominant and controlling from there. The key question for Brisbane coach Craig Starcevich is whether to hand Cathy Svarc an accountable run-with role. If so, Anne Hatchard seems the most likely option, given how dangerous Hatchard's ability to spread hard away from congestion is, becoming a conduit for the Crows going forward.
Elsewhere they are rather evenly matched sides around the park, both winning plenty of clearances and applying immense pressure around the ground - especially up forward - but Brisbane is making a bit more of its forward 50 entries, goaling from 21.1 per cent of its 35.9 average inside 50s. If any forward line is going to really cut through Adelaide's experienced defence, it's the Lions.
Tip: This will go right down to the wire, but the Lions' forward line will pull through. Brisbane by two points.
SATURDAY
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne at Alberton Oval, 12.40pm ACDT
This is simply a must-win game for North Melbourne if it is any chance to move into the top four by season's end. Losses to the three dominant teams in Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane has made life tough for the Kangaroos, but they now have an opportunity to get back on the winner's list against a Port Adelaide side that fell to Hawthorn last week. The issue for North Melbourne this season has been an inability to be really damaging in attack, getting it forward but not making the most of those chances. Against Port Adelaide's relatively inexperienced defence, however, they have a real opportunity to find that killer instinct.
The Power are still without first choice ruck Liz McGrath, who is now dealing with an ankle concern, which may leave them exposed for height against the Roos. Olivia Levicki has the big job of taking on both Emma King and Kim Rennie in the ruck, while Indy Tahau and Amelie Borg will have their hands full with Tahlia Randall and whichever ruck is resting forward. If Port Adelaide can equalise that aerial game, they will be in a good place to minimise impact on the scoreboard, but as soon as the Roos start to dominate the air, that spells danger for the home side.
Tip: The Roos will know how important this one is, and make it count. North Melbourne by 35 points.
Essendon v Sydney at Ikon Park, 3.10pm, AEDT
In a game between two expansion sides who have had very different inaugural seasons, it will come down to whichever team can hold territory more effectively and for longer periods of time. Essendon is best placed to take control at the contest thanks to Maddy Prespakis' dominance, and from that the Bombers will be able to control the ball in the forward half. It is a real chance for the Bombers' overwhelming attack of the first few rounds to return and put immense pressure on Sydney's defensive unit.
For Sydney, the likes of Lauren Szigeti, Montana Ham, Sofia Hurley and Cynthia Hamilton need to limit or at least slow Essendon's movement out of congestion and prevent quick clearances and delivery forward. If the Swans can slow that down they may be able to enjoy some time in their forward half and give players like Bec Privitelli, Aleisha Newman and Brooke Lochland repeat looks at goal.
Tip: The Bombers will take this chance to bag another win. Essendon by 20 points.
AFLW FIXTURE Who does your team play in season seven?
Geelong v West Coast at Ikon Park, 5.40pm AEDT
Geelong and West Coast have played off against one another twice, for one win each, with the Eagles' 2021 victory over the Cats the biggest winning margin and highest score in the side's history. This time around, things look quite different. Geelong is a team on the way up, staring down the barrel of its second finals series and some important wins under its belt, whereas West Coast has shown many signs of improvement but hasn't quite reflected that on its win/loss ledger. This season Geelong has been more consistent than the Eagles, but first quarters have been its worst, so if the visitors can get off to a strong start, they will be well placed to challenge come the final term.
West Coast will be up against a similar style of play as it was last week against Richmond - a strong intercepting team that will punish sloppy entries into attack. The thing that Geelong has that Richmond has been less adept at is regular, damaging clearances. The Cats get back Georgie Prespakis and Amy McDonald had her own suspension overturned at the tribunal on Tuesday, so their one-two punch through the middle is back in action. Eagles Emma Swanson and Bella Lewis will have to work hard not only to limit Prespakis and McDonald, but to create damaging attack themselves.
Tip: West Coast will fight hard but ultimately the Cats will prove victorious. Geelong by 10 points.
Gold Coast v Melbourne at Metricon Stadium, 6.40pm AEST
Women's footy pioneer Daisy Pearce will bring up career game number 50 on Saturday evening at Melbourne's happy hunting ground of Metricon Stadium, where they have won two games from two starts. Key for the Suns, if unable to get their first ever win over the Demons, will be minimising the damage on the scoreboard to maintain enough percentage to still challenge for eighth place on the ladder. In the home side's pocket is Lauren Bella's improvement, and the absence of Demon Lauren Pearce due to concussion. Bella will likely take on rotating pair Tayla Harris and Eden Zanker, but Melbourne coach Mick Stinear may also choose to bring tap ruck Maggie Caris into the side to match Bella's deft touch.
Gold Coast and Melbourne are numbers one and two in the competition for contested possessions and have shown great strength at stoppages. Charlie Rowbottom and Claudia Whitfort taking charge for the Suns, Olivia Purcell and Eliza West for the Demons. What Melbourne is doing better, however, is retaining possession both inside and outside the contest. The Demons are winning the most disposals in competition history, averaging 241.6 per game, and then when they don't have the ball, they are elite at pressuring the opponent to turn it back over. In doing so they are forcing opponents to use the ball at just 55.8 per cent efficiency. Through this style of play, they will control play, and encourage the Suns to panic when they do have ball in hand.
Tip: Gold Coast is a side on the improve, but not quite enough to fell the Demons. Melbourne by 23 points.
SUNDAY
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda at Mars Stadium, 1.10pm AEDT
Another must-win game, this one for the Western Bulldogs if they are to keep their finals hopes alive and snap a three-game losing streak in the process. Both sides have had a tough run of late, and last week resorted to throwing the magnets around late in their respective games to see what could be salvaged. Despite being a home ground for the Bulldogs, they have never won at Mars Stadium, while this will be St Kilda's first trip to Ballarat for an AFLW match.
The Dogs like to control the footy, using more of a kick-mark game and in the process averaging 46 marks per game and using the ball at 63.5 per cent efficiency. St Kilda on the other hand prefers to play faster, more aggressive footy, looking to gain as much territory as possible with every disposal and use plenty of forward pressure to create repeat opportunities to score. If the Bulldogs can get that control back in their game, they are well positioned to register their fifth win of the season.
Tip: The Bulldogs copped a reality check against Melbourne last week and will come out like a team on a mission. Western Bulldogs by 18 points.
THE FULL RUN HOME All the contenders, all the clashes
Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn at Henson Park, 3.10pm AEDT
Since round one last season, Greater Western Sydney has been on a win-loss-loss trend for its last 17 games, and will be looking to break that this weekend against Hawthorn with a win, and in the process snapping the newcomers' three game winning streak. This will also be Hawthorn's first trip outside of Victoria in its AFLW history.
GWS' much-discussed new game style which is focused on outside speed, run and carry has been exciting, but resulted in them being exposed out the back. Similarly, the Hawks have looked their best when getting the ball in the hands of runners like Aileen Gilroy, Tahlia Fellows, Kaitlyn Ashmore and even Jasmine Fleming, but have been much more solid down back, repelling countless entries and able to lock down strong forward options in the process. The Giants need to be clever with how they use the ball, use that run but make good choices going into attack, rather than playing into the hands of the Hawthorn defence.
Tip: The Giants will see this as an opportunity to register a third win for the season. Giants by three points.
Fremantle v Collingwood at Fremantle Oval, 2.10pm AWST
Fremantle is coming off two consecutive games where it looked a chance to steal unexpected wins, only to fall away in the final quarter. The Dockers now must face a fourth-placed Collingwood side without key playmakers Gabby O'Sullivan and Janelle Cuthbertson but may get the dynamic Ebony Antonio back for her first game of the season. They have gone head-to-head with Collingwood five times throughout AFLW history, and won the last four, keeping the Pies to just 10 inside 50s when they met last season.
Jaimee Lambert looms as a key player in this one, likely to match up on Fremantle dynamo Kiara Bowers. Back in 2020 when these two sides played in a thriller at Fremantle Oval, Lambert had arguably a career-best game, winning 32 disposals and laying eight tackles, almost singlehandedly getting the Pies over the line. Kiara Bowers, meanwhile, is coming off one of the all-time great individual games, where she had 29 disposals, 19 tackles and 11 clearances. It will be a midfield face-off that will be intriguing to watch.
Tip: The Dockers will be looking to bag their first win at Fremantle Oval this season. Fremantle by five points.
