A BATTLE between rivals Collingwood and North Melbourne headlines the penultimate home and away round of season seven. Meanwhile the top two sides in Brisbane and Melbourne will be on the hunt to solidify their double chance with the home ground advantage.
Sydney will no doubt be looking at its match against a depleted Fremantle as winnable, and Gold Coast and Carlton will play off to keep their slim finals chances alive.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21
Adelaide v Geelong at Unley Oval, 5.10pm ACDT
Geelong has never beaten Adelaide in three starts, but it has never been better placed to snatch its first win. In those three meetings, Geelong has won just two quarters, each by less than a goal, illustrating just how dominant the Crows have been in this pairing. If the Cats are to take the win, they will need to force Adelaide to defend deep and not let the Crows settle into their own forward half. Putting that defence under pressure will be key in claiming victory.
The midfield battle will be an intriguing one, with the home side without captain Chelsea Randall and therefore needing to rely on rotating the likes of Teah Charlton, Danielle Ponter, Eloise Jones, and Abbie Ballard through the midfield to support star pair Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard. Any weaknesses through that midfield will be exploited by the impressive Geelong contingent of Georgie Prespakis, Amy McDonald, and Becky Webster.
Tip: Adelaide still has stars across the park, even without Randall, but there has never been a better time for the Cats to take the win. Geelong by two points.
Gold Coast v Carlton at Metricon Stadium, 6.40pm AEST
Both Gold Coast and Carlton need a win to remain in finals contention - which will also be reliant on the Western Bulldogs' results - so this game will be crucial. The Suns have never beaten Carlton, averaging just 21.5 points in their two matches to date, while conceding an average of 66.5, but this season they have started to really find the balance between winning the ball and applying defensive pressure. In doing so, they have been conceding fewer disposals than ever before and preventing opposition teams from taking easy shots on goal once inside 50.
Carlton, meanwhile, is averaging its second-lowest score since joining the AFLW, and its lowest disposal efficiency since 2018. When pressure is applied around the ball, the Blues really struggle to move the ball with any meaningful intent. Gold Coast's pressure players like Alison Drennan, Daisy D’Arcy, and Charlie Rowbottom loom as key to shutting down the Blues and driving the last dagger in Carlton's finals hopes.
Tip: The Suns will get their first win over Carlton. Gold Coast by 10 points.
AFLW INJURY LIST How healthy is your team?
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22
Collingwood v North Melbourne at Victoria Park, 1.10pm AEDT
Arch rivals Collingwood and North Melbourne are set to play off in a crucial game in the context of the top eight and its final form. Collingwood, currently sitting in third, has played just one top eight side to date, so this is the perfect opportunity for it to test itself against the best sides. A win against the Kangaroos, who despite sitting in seventh place with three losses are one of the best teams in the competition this season, would be a huge boost.
Both sides are being thwarted by a similar concern - an inability to make the most of their forward entries. Collingwood is kicking a goal from just 14 per cent of its inside 50s, and North Melbourne is only marginally better, goaling from 15.6 per cent. The Pies are taking regular shots, but an accuracy of 29.5 per cent is letting them down, the Kangaroos are firing off fewer shots but have been marginally more accurate.
Collingwood's defence looks like it may be the great equaliser, but the projected wet weather may just play into North Melbourne's hands. In the wet, the aerial game becomes less of a factor so once the ball hits the ground, players can really set themselves apart. Stacey Livingstone's intercept marking has been crucial to the Pies this season, but at ground level players like Lauren Butler and Alana Porter have the opportunity to come to the fore, and conversely, the Roos need to be clever about how they enter 50 and take advantage of the pressure Vikki Wall and Sophie Abbatangelo offer.
Tip: It will go down to the wire, again. North Melbourne by five points.
Sydney v Fremantle at Henson Park, 3.10pm, AEDT
For two sides occupying 17th and 18th on the ladder, this game looks like an exciting one. Fremantle's never-ending injury interruptions continue to be a factor, with seven players ruled out for the remainder of the season, and another three still with question marks over their availability. Kiara Bowers and Hayley Miller loom as the most important players on the ground for the Dockers, however, with their strength at the contest likely to dictate how much territory they control.
The Swans will be out for their first ever win, after going down by four points in what was a controversial result last week. Maintaining structure ahead of the ball and using short kicks to retain possession and work down the field worked well last week and will likely be the plan of action on Saturday. Where they do look vulnerable, however, is the aerial game in defence, after conceding 17 marks inside 50 against the Bombers. Tall Freo pair Aine Tighe and Amy Franklin may just take control in the air, and if they do, Fremantle's chances look good.
Tip: For the Swans it's now or never. Sydney by three points.
West Coast v Western Bulldogs at Mineral Resources Park, 2.10pm AWST
In two matches between the Eagles and Bulldogs, each side has taken a win. West Coast's was the club's first ever AFLW win, the Western Bulldogs' is the second-largest win in club history. Last week the Dogs started to get back to their damaging early season form and will need to continue that if they are to lock in their finals berth, just their second since the AFLW began.
At times this season Eagle Aisling McCarthy has run with damaging opposition midfielders and may get the job on Bulldogs captain Ellie Blackburn to curb the latter's burst away from stoppages and attacking play. Meanwhile, the ruck battle will be a fun one to watch, with two of the competition's biggest improvers, Sarah Lakay and Alice Edmonds, going head-to-head. Lakay, in just her second season, has proved her strength around the ground, laying tackles, getting physical and challenging in the air. Meanwhile Edmonds' neat tap work has been providing silver service to their midfield group. Whoever wins the ruck battle will play a big part in the eventual winner.
Tip: The Bulldogs will know how much rides on this game and make it count on the scoreboard. Western Bulldogs by 15 points.
Hawthorn v Brisbane at Skybus Stadium, 7.10pm AEDT
This one is Hawthorn's biggest challenge since it joined the AFLW, facing the ladder-leading Lions who are in a rich vein of form. To date the Hawks' run has been their weapon, intercepting, rebounding quickly and getting runners out the back to hit the scoreboard. The problem being that Brisbane is one of the best running sides in the competition, with speed and work ethic to boot. It is unlikely the Hawks will be able to find that slingshot against such a well-drilled Lions outfit.
Jenna Richardson will certainly be a factor, however, after the 21-year-old held Erin Phillips and Cora Staunton - who combined have kicked 104 goals - goalless in consecutive weeks. Whoever coach Bec Goddard chooses to send Richardson to will no doubt have a tough evening, but the bonus for Brisbane is the sheer array of players who can reliably kick goals and Hawthorn simply won't be able to contain all those options.
Tip: Hawthorn will fight hard, but ultimately the Lions will win big. Brisbane by 45 points.
AFLW FIXTURE Who does your team play in season seven?
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23
St Kilda v Port Adelaide at RSEA Park, 1.10pm AEDT
In what is likely to be another wet, slippery game, both St Kilda and Port Adelaide will be determined to notch up another win as the season heads toward a close. In attack, St Kilda hasn't quite been making best use of its assets. Despite having both Caitlin Greiser and Kate Shierlaw in attack, the Saints are averaging just 3.9 marks inside 50 this season, indicating the lack of controlled attack they have been able to achieve. Against the Port Adelaide trio of Indy Tahau, Alex Ballard, and Amelie Borg, who have become adept at intercepting forward entries, the Saints need to be more considered with how they choose to go forward.
Port Adelaide, in a similar vein, has done well to execute neat ball movement around the ground, hitting up options and utilising strong marking players like Kate Surman and Brittany Perry, but when they go to enter 50 things become a little messier. Having Gemma Houghton back certainly helps in this respect, providing an option and spreading defences away from Erin Phillips, as last week's match against North Melbourne showed. The Saints, who will still be without crucial defensive post Clara Fitzpatrick, may just open the door for Port Adelaide to snag its second ever win.
Tip: The Power will be looking toward this match as a real opportunity to experience that winning feeling once more. Port Adelaide by eight points.
Richmond v Greater Western Sydney at Mildura Sporting Precinct, 3.10pm AEDT
In the first AFLW game in Mildura, Richmond will be on a mission to continue its six-game winning streak, while Greater Western Sydney will be focused on ending it. Courtney Wakefield looks likely to be the most dangerous player on the ground after a four-goal performance last week and a Giants' defence that is without its go-to lock down defender in Pepa Randall. If GWS allows Richmond quick entries with its defenders isolated in one-on-ones, it may just be a long afternoon for Giants fans.
Both sides are averaging their second-lowest score since joining the AFLW, Richmond with 29.5 points per game, and GWS with 25.8. Where they vary, however, is that Richmond's stingy defence has effectively won it games this season, as it is conceding just 21.9 points each week - half of what the side was conceding last season. GWS is still allowing its opposition to kick nearly seven goals per game, leading to its poor percentage of just 62.4.
Tip: The Tigers will make it seven in seven weeks. Richmond by 20 points.
Melbourne v Essendon at Casey Fields, 5.10pm AEDT
To close the round, Melbourne will be looking to flex its muscles and gain percentage, but Essendon's midfield group will have something to say about that. Melbourne's forward line will likely dominate in the air, averaging a record 9.6 marks inside 50 so far this season from 34.8 inside 50s per game, which will inundate a depleted Essendon defence that is still without Ellyse Gamble. The Bombers midfielders need to be really proactive in applying pressure higher up the field so as to somewhat protect its backline, otherwise it could get ugly very quickly.
The Demons' game style has not only been based on their own ability to win the ball and effectively play keepings off, but when they do give up possession, they force unusually poor disposal from opponents. Just once this season has a side registered a higher disposal efficiency against Melbourne than against its other seven opponents, and that was Fremantle in round six by just 0.9 per cent. Every other opponent of the Demons has recorded a lower disposal efficiency in the matchup because of Melbourne's positioning, willingness to pressure, and ability to close down space.
Tip: Essendon will do what they can to shut down the Demons' neat possession game, but it won't be enough. Melbourne by 25 points.
