WITH final home and away round of season seven here, this weekend will be 10 supporter bases' last chance to see their team this year, while others will jostle for positions within the top eight.
Brisbane plays off against Collingwood and North Melbourne faces Richmond in the two games that will arguably dictate the top four, while it is must-win for the Western Bulldogs against the Blues.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28
Carlton v Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park, 6.10pm AEDT
For the Western Bulldogs it's simple - win and they're into finals, lose and there is still a chance they can miss. For Carlton, it's about finishing a tough season with a bit of pride and hope for next year. This has been the Blues' least successful season since 2018, when the Bulldogs piled on 86 points against Carlton to win by - at the time - a record 73 points. This season the Blues are averaging their lowest disposal efficiency since that 2018 season, while also averaging their lowest score ever with just 24.7 points per game. Injuries to its attacking line has severely limited Carlton's avenues to goal, and the Bulldogs' defensive line, led by Katie Lynch, will be primed to dominate that half of the ground.
The tall battle will be an interesting watch, with twins Celine (Western Bulldogs) and Breann Moody (Carlton) going head-to-head for the third time. These two sides are leading the competition's hitouts this season, with Carlton's Moody and Jess Good averaging 36.6 and the Bulldogs' Moody and Alice Edmonds averaging 36.7. Meanwhile, the Western Bulldogs' contested marking game has returned in recent weeks. The side is averaging 8.7 contested marks in wins this season, including 15 in the last two games alone, and just five in losses. If the Blues allow them to dominate the air, it could be a very tough night for Carlton supporters.
Tip: The Bulldogs will know their fate lies in their hands. Western Bulldogs by 25 points.
Brisbane v Collingwood at Metricon Stadium, 7.10pm AEST
Brisbane and Collingwood have played off eight times across competition history, with the former currently on a four-game winning streak against the latter. This run has included two finals whereby the Lions have ended the Pies' season, and last season handed them their biggest ever loss. This time around, the speed of Brisbane's wingers and impressive forward line has the home side well placed to extend the winning streak to five games.
Lions coach Craig Starcevich has been strong on his team's goal to gain percentage and secure the minor premiership, which has seen them play ruthless footy and looms as a big concern for a Collingwood side that has struggled when really challenged. This season Brisbane is conceding the lowest scoring efficiency in competition history. That is, it's allowing its opposition to take a shot on goal from just 30.5 per cent of their inside 50 entries. Combining this with Collingwood's goal accuracy of 31.1 per cent this season, and scoring looks like it will be hard to come by for the visitors.
Tip: It's going to be a minor premiership in the books for the Lions. Brisbane by 30 points.
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SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29
Melbourne v West Coast at Casey Fields, 1.10pm AEDT
These two sides have played off just once before, at Casey Fields in 2020 where the Demons won by 59 points and held the Eagles to one goal. Things have changed ever so slightly since that day. Melbourne is still a dominant side pushing for a premiership, but the Eagles have made changes and look to be on the improve, however likely not enough to claim victory. West Coast is conceding an average of 41.1 points per game - the fewest in club history, but still the fourth-most in the AFLW this season, while Melbourne is kicking an average of 48.9 points per game.
Melbourne's neat handball game allows it to control possession, but can be disrupted with enough opposition pressure, which will no doubt be West Coast's first step in quelling the home side. What the Eagles cannot do is succumb to the Demons' pressure game when they do win the ball. This season the visitors have been conceding 73.9 tackles per game, inviting pressure, and ultimately using the ball at just 60 per cent efficiency, and this is exactly what Melbourne has been doing all season. Limiting opposition possession, then forcing poor ball use when they do have it.
Tip: The Demons have kept their last three opponents to nine points and will do similar on Saturday. Melbourne by 40 points.
St Kilda v Adelaide at RSEA Park, 3.10pm AEDT
This season the Saints have bagged three wins by an average of 28 points, all against expansion sides. Against established sides, however, they are losing by an average of 22.3 points, and kicking an average of 23.3 points. Now they must host third-placed Adelaide to close out the season. The big concern for St Kilda is Adelaide's clearance dominance. With the Crows averaging 27.8 clearances per game, if they are able to transition quickly from stoppages into attack that will put immense pressure on a depleted St Kilda defensive line.
In their 2021 matchup, Adelaide held the Saints to just eight inside 50s for the game, the equal-fewest in AFLW history. It is unlikely we will see a repeat of this given the Saints' purposeful rebounding game style, hinging on Bianca Jakobsson's attack out of the backline, but this may just be a vulnerability the Crows can exploit. With the Saints focused on a rebounding mindset, they have the potential to be caught out the back and players like Danielle Ponter and Eloise Jones can reap the rewards.
Tip: In three starts St Kilda has never beaten the Crows, and that is unlikely to change in game number four. Adelaide by 35 points.
Geelong v Sydney at GMHBA Stadium, 5.10pm AEDT
If Geelong is to keep its hopes for a top four spot alive, it needs to win big over Sydney on Saturday and hope Sunday's result between North Melbourne and Richmond goes its way. In the last month Sydney has conceded an average of 10.3 marks inside 50, so this game is a real chance for forward duo Shelley Scott and Chloe Scheer to dominate in the air, who combined have taken 17 marks inside 50 in the last month. Added to this, the Cats' dominant midfield group of Amy McDonald, Georgie Prespakis and Becky Webster will be eager to take on the Swans' contingent which will be without Montana Ham due to year 12 exams.
For the Swans, they have found more effective attack in recent weeks by running the ball forward and focusing on the ground ball rather than the long, high kicks forward. If they can continue this style of attack, and not get sucked into those panicked kicks forward, they can somewhat nullify Geelong's intercepting game, led by Annabel Johnson, Meg McDonald, and Claudia Gunjaca.
Tip: The Swans will work hard, but the Cats are priming themselves for finals. Geelong by 28 points.
Fremantle v Hawthorn at Fremantle Oval, 4.10pm AWST
With both sides out of finals contention, this game will be more focused on a retiring great playing for each team. Kara Antonio, the inaugural Dockers captain, will make her return for one final game in the purple, while cross-sport champion Jess Duffin will finish her AFLW career in the brown and gold. Two champions of the game, who will likely sit at each end of the ground playing forward and no doubt continue to impact their respective side's result until the very last siren.
This is going to be a contested game, with both Fremantle and Hawthorn averaging more than 70 tackles per game this season, so whichever can make best use of the space it is afforded will come out on top. For the Dockers, Ebony Antonio has the most potential to be the gamebreaker, with her ability to evade pressure and maintain composed. Meanwhile Aileen Gilroy looks to be that player for the Hawks. Gilroy's speed and attack through the corridor has broken games open more than once this season.
Tip: Hawthorn will be without some key players thanks to year 12 exams, and the Dockers will take advantage. Fremantle by 12 points.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 30
Port Adelaide v Essendon at Alberton Oval, 12.40pm ACDT
Two sides who are coached by former Darebin Falcons premiership teammates in Lauren Arnell and Natalie Wood will finish their inaugural AFLW seasons in a head-to-head battle. Arnell's group has typically started games well but faded in second halves, while Wood's side starts and ends games well, but has a lull in the middle two quarters. Statistically both teams are very similar, differing in two specific ways. Essendon has been conceding an average of 90.4 uncontested possessions, 11 fewer than Port Adelaide, which has allowed it to better limit opposition control in game.
Essendon has also been more efficient once inside 50, generating a shot on goal from 45.3 per cent of its forward entries, while Port Adelaide is going at just 37 per cent. Now, with defender Alex Ballard ruled out with concussion and Essendon set to take its overwhelming contingent of Paige Scott, Daria Bannister, Bonnie Toogood, and Jess Wuetschner to Alberton, it is likely to be a tough day for the Power defence and an opportunity for the Bombers to pile on another big score.
Tip: Port Adelaide will start strong, but the Bombers will run away with it. Essendon by 15 points.
North Melbourne v Richmond at Arden Street Oval, 3.10pm AEDT
This is arguably the most important game of the round, with the winner likely to finish in fourth spot with the double chance and the loser to progress to an elimination final. Richmond has never beaten North Melbourne in three matches, and the closest they have come is 19 points, but this time around the Tigers are on a seven-game winning streak and are heaving with confidence, albeit they may be without their leading goalkicker Courtney Wakefield due to a shoulder injury.
Richmond has worked to make games messy and chaotic this season and was the key to beating ladder leaders Brisbane in round five. In the past this would have been a disaster matchup for the Kangaroos, but this season they are better equipped than ever to win ugly, and are less reliant on clean, neat footy to get the job done. They have also been able to send quiet achiever Meg MacDonald to damaging midfield opponents to limit their impact, and she may get another job this weekend. Against whom, however, is the question with any of Jenna Bruton, Ashleigh Riddell, or Jasmine Garner viable options. The Roos are also likely to regain Ellie Gavalas who can impact both through the middle and up forward.
The game within the game will also be star midfielders Garner and Monique Conti going up against one another for the three votes in what may just decide the competition best and fairest winner come November.
Tip: The 'hot girl hot streak' will unfortunately come to an end. North Melbourne by eight points.
Greater Western Sydney v Gold Coast at Henson Park, 5.10pm AEDT
Friday night's result between the Blues and the Dogs will dictate just how important this game will ultimately be, with a Carlton win keeping the finals door ajar for Gold Coast in Giants star Cora Staunton's 50th game. The Suns have never beaten GWS in three starts, but this time around Gold Coast is best placed to take the win. Dominating contested possession this season, averaging a competition record 113.8 per game, Gold Coast spreads the load reliably across Charlie Rowbottom, Ellie Hampson, Claudia Whitfort and Alison Drennan, while the Giants are still heavily reliant on Alyce Parker to get the job done.
In the ruck the experience of Lauren Bella will also come to the fore. Bella started the season very strongly, adding more to her game around the ground while also averaging a career-high 21.1 hitouts per game. For the Giants, Cambridge McCormick has battled admirably in the ruck this season, left one-out after injury decimated the side's ruck stocks, but against Bella she will be up against it.
Tip: The Giants will work hard to win for Staunton's milestone game, but it won't quite be enough. Gold Coast by 12 points.
