NORTH MELBOURNE has all the momentum, while Melbourne will have watched last week's semi-finals with bated breath. All season the Demons have been touted as one of the best teams in the competition and the Roos have had to battle every other finalist on its way to this weekend's preliminary final.
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SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19
Melbourne v North Melbourne at Ikon Park at 3:10pm AEDT
Head-to-head history
Melbourne and North Melbourne have played off five times over the course of AFLW history, and although the latter took the first points between the sides, the Demons have since won four straight. While Melbourne wins out on the ledger, no game has been decided by more than 10 points, with the average margin just 5.4 points.
Last time they met
They last played in round two this season, on none other than the MCG, and a dramatic goal in the dying minutes from Alyssa Bannan handed a two-point win to Melbourne. As two sides particularly adept at defending, and defending high up the ground, it was an armwrestle for the duration.
Ash Riddell led the field for disposals with 26, while star midfielder Jasmine Garner won 10 clearances - the resulting difference between the two sides in the metric. Despite North Melbourne's dominance around the ball, the Demons engaged their now-signature handball game, winning 50 more than the Roos, to spend extended periods in the forward half.
Melbourne's biggest issue for the game was an inability to capitalise on that time in attack, kicking 3.8 (26) to North Melbourne's four straight goals. Both teams kicked opportunistic goals in the struggle, with Daisy Pearce landing two for the Demons, and Emma King two for the Kangaroos.
Key match-up
When they met in round two, emerging Roo Amy Smith spent plenty of time running alongside Karen Paxman, and there is fair reason to expect North Melbourne coach Darren Crocker will look for more of the same. In that game Paxman won 18 disposals, took five marks and had four score involvements, while Smith had 13 disposals, four intercepts and a debut goal of her own.
Paxman's intelligence and physical capabilities are so important to Melbourne's game. She is able to do damage herself while also bringing teammates into the game. Smith's tank to go with her, and willingness to apply defensive pressure, gives North Melbourne the best chance of slowing Paxman's impact.
What the Demon is very good at, however, is finding ways to adapt and positively influence her side even when an opponent has been tasked with stopping her, including blocking at stoppages for other ball-winning teammates.
The state of play
Neither of these sides has ever lost at Ikon Park from a combined seven starts. That will change on Saturday afternoon.
North Melbourne will come into this one full of confidence, knowing that it has the ability to shift and adjust to the opponent's game style. The Kangaroos will try to execute the style of play they achieved last week - essentially a game of keepings-off - but this is a much tougher prospect against a hardened Melbourne side.
It is the side's focus on winning and controlling the uncontested ball that will be most important. Some 52.4 per cent of the Roos' possessions this season have been uncontested, while Melbourne is more focused on winning the contested possession and forcing contested possession on its opponent as well.
Melbourne coach Mick Stinear may choose to send small defender Shelley Heath to play a defensive forward role on Emma Kearney, given the potential of the Roos captain to change the momentum of games. The other potential match-up to watch out for is dashing defender Brooke Brown on big-game player Alyssa Bannan. Both are quick, highly athletic and like to get up the ground so will undoubtedly trade blows all afternoon.
What it will really come down to, however, is the ability to take away the opposition's best asset. Melbourne will need to prevent the Roos playing their uncontested, kick-mark game. North Melbourne will need to apply immense pressure around the ball to shut down the Dees' handball game.
Tip
The Demons will continue their winning streak against the Kangaroos ... just. Melbourne by two points.