A ROUND eight win to the Western Bulldogs, and losses to both Carlton and Gold Coast means the top eight is all but set, as Brisbane has stamped itself as the clear ladder leader with a win over Adelaide.
The top eight looks likely to shuffle over the coming two rounds, however, as Geelong and Richmond continue to threaten for the top four, and Collingwood's tough run home may create some disruption.
1. Brisbane
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 259.3 per cent
The Lions have now beaten both Melbourne and Adelaide, establishing themselves as the best team in it. Their average winning margin is 36.7 points this season, and their only loss - to Richmond in round five - was by just four points. In the final two rounds of the home and away season they face a 13th-placed Hawthorn and the remaining current top four side in Collingwood. It's hard to see them dropping any further games during the home and away season and look more likely than not to finish atop the ladder.
The run home
RD9: Hawthorn at Skybus Stadium
RD10: Collingwood at Metricon Stadium
2. Melbourne
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 224.1 per cent
Brisbane's victory over Adelaide, and Melbourne's 49-point win over Gold Coast has launched the Demons into the top two on both points and percentage. Because of a tougher start to the season, where they have played each of Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Brisbane already, means their last two matches are comparatively easier, with their first expansion side in round nine in Essendon, then 15th-placed West Coast, both at their Casey Fields fortress. A couple of big wins will potentially see Melbourne leapfrog the Lions on percentage.
The run home
RD9: Essendon at Casey Fields
RD10: West Coast at Casey Fields
3. Collingwood
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 192.4 per cent
The Pies are currently in the top four by virtue of a strong defence and a comparatively easier fixture than the other heavy hitters around them. They have beaten just one side currently sitting in the top eight - Geelong by four points in round three. The real test for Collingwood comes in its final two weeks, facing rivals North Melbourne and Brisbane, against whom they have a storied past. This final fortnight will provide a real understanding of where the Pies sit ahead of finals.
The run home
RD9: North Melbourne at Victoria Park
RD10: Brisbane at Metricon Stadium
4. Adelaide
24 points (six wins, two losses), 184.8 per cent
Adelaide's two losses have come against Brisbane and Melbourne, the sides sitting in first and second position. Round eight is also the latest in an AFLW season that the Crows have registered a loss and against fellow top eight sides their percentage is just 92.3. Coming home, however, they have a tough Geelong match-up before an unpredictable St Kilda side. There is every reason to expect they will finish the season in third place with the double chance for finals.
The run home
RD9: Geelong at Norwood Oval
RD10: St Kilda at RSEA Park
5. Geelong
24 points (six wins, two losses), 153.9 per cent
The Cats have really hit a groove, winning their last four and having their best season since joining the AFLW in 2019. Coming home they have one of the toughest trips in footy - to South Australia to take on a smarting Adelaide, and then close out the home and away season hosting the winless Swans down at GMHBA Stadium. While a place in finals is already locked in, two wins in the coming fortnight opens the door for a top-four finish, and the double chance.
The run home
RD9: Adelaide at Unley Oval
RD10: Sydney at GMHBA Stadium
6. Richmond
24 points (six wins, two losses), 134.9 per cent
Six wins on the trot and counting, the Tigers just keep finding ways to win. Coming home they must face a 12th-placed GWS side that continues to be hit by injury, and then a barnstorming North Melbourne side that will be determined to finish the season with strength. Richmond has confirmed its place in finals for the first time, but pushing for the double chance or a home final is still on the cards.
The run home
RD9: GWS at Mildura Sporting Precinct
RD10: North Melbourne at Arden Street
7. North Melbourne
20 points (five wins, three losses), 168.4 per cent
It's been a tough run for North Melbourne, playing five of the current top eight sides - the most alongside Adelaide. Their three losses for the season have come against the first, second and fourth-placed sides by an average of 7.7 points. The Roos are a better side than their seventh place suggests, and games against Collingwood and Richmond in the final two weeks allows them to prove that, and move higher up the ladder.
The run home
RD9: Collingwood at Victoria Park
RD10: Richmond at Arden Street
8. Western Bulldogs
20 points (five wins, three losses), 97.5 per cent
With a win on Sunday, and losses to both Gold Coast and Carlton, the Dogs have almost secured their second ever finals berth, but their record against fellow top eight sides is shaky at best. With West Coast and Carlton remaining, the Bulldogs have an opportunity to rediscover the damaging style of play they showed early in the season in order to prepare for finals.
The run home
RD9: West Coast at Mineral Resources Park
RD10: Carlton at Ikon Park
9. Gold Coast
16 points (four wins, four losses), 80.5 per cent
Last week it was vital the Suns minimise the pain on the scoreboard to maintain some percentage should they still push for eighth place, but that wasn't to be. Now a game and percentage out of finals, the Suns need a couple of big wins, and some other results to fall their way if they are to snatch eighth spot. With Carlton and GWS to come, that is not out of the realm of possibility, but finals now look unlikely for Gold Coast.
The run home
RD9: Carlton at Metricon Stadium
RD10: GWS at Henson Park
10. Essendon
12 points (three wins, five losses), 103.1 per cent
The highest placed expansion side, Essendon's win over Sydney and a healthy percentage keeps it in slim contention for finals straight off the bat. What makes this difficult, however, is a tough match-up against second-placed Melbourne at Casey Fields this coming weekend. In order to leap into finals the Bombers must in both of their remaining games, and Bulldogs must lose their remaining games, so while very unlikely it is not impossible.
The run home
RD9: Melbourne at Casey Fields
RD10: Port Adelaide at Alberton Oval
11. Carlton
12 points (two wins, four losses, two draws), 77.8 per cent
Carlton's loss to Richmond last weekend has all but eliminated it from the finals race. The Blues must win both of their remaining games against Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs, and several other results must go their way. Their percentage of 77.8 is also a factor going against the Blues. Another side that mathematically can still make the eight, but the likelihood of that is slim to none.
The run home
RD9: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
RD10: Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park
12. GWS Giants
12 points (three wins, five losses), 62.4 per cent
Similar to Carlton, GWS sits two games and significant percentage outside of the finals race. What the Giants must also consider is a round nine match against a sixth-placed Richmond side that is on a hot streak. It's hard to see the Giants making it from here, with their low percentage almost like being an extra game behind.
The run home
RD9: Richmond at Mildura Sporting Precinct
RD10: Gold Coast at Henson Park
13. Hawthorn
12 points (three wins, five losses), 60.8 per cent
The Hawks' winning streak came to a heartbreaking end with a one point loss to the Giants on Sunday, which has put them almost completely out of the finals conversation. Needing to win their final two games, and for the Bulldogs to lose both of theirs becomes even tougher when Hawthorn must face ladder leaders Brisbane this weekend.
The run home
RD9: Brisbane at Skybus Stadium
RD10: Fremantle at Fremantle Oval
