WHICH players are going to rocket upwards to start the 2024 AFLW Fantasy season? 

All fans of the AFLW, from the most strident supporters of a single team to the most casual player of AFLW Fantasy, are intuitively looking for or hoping to find that one player who can achieve the mythical 'breakout'.

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We take a look at some of the options who are most likely to break out for your AFLW Fantasy side in 2024, the ones most likely to move from 'competition young gun' to 'superstar', and break downs all the factors (e.g. roles, gameplans, injury recovery) that will need to fall into place to allow for lift off!

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Ella Roberts (MID, $1,081,000)
Is it possible to say that someone can 'break out' when that player has come second in the Telstra AFLW Rising Star *twice*, and they averaged 83.5 Fantasy points in 2023? Roberts is already considered a star by many in the west, but this mid/forward utility is only just coming into her own. If Daisy Pearce stays true to her word, then Roberts ought to spend less time playing forward and more time playing in the midfield in 2024, where her unique blend of size, skill and agility will shine. If that midfield role appears, Roberts looks to be capable of averaging just north of 100 Fantasy points.

Montana Ham (MID, $620,000)
This pre-season I have been going back to look at the reports on Ham as she was taken with pick No.1 by the Swans. They talk of a dominant presence at stoppages, a genre-defining blend of size (179cm) and agility. Sadly, we have only seen glimpses of that player so far, with a cruel mix of injury and study (Ham was finishing year 12 in her first season) hampering the breakout of Sydney's first ever draft pick. Those glimpses do suggest that Ham can be both a CBA midfielder and an extremely talented forward, both in the air and when the ball hits the ground, but for our Fantasy purposes, it is the midfield role which presents the most tantalising option. She will need to battle a host of other rotational mids in Sydney (Chloe Molloy, Cynthia Hamilton, and Sofia Hurley), but I will not be crossing Ham off the list as she looks to push herself into the AFLW (and AFLW Fantasy) limelight.

Isabelle Pritchard (MID, $963,000)
Pritchard was taken at pick 16 in the 2020 Telstra AFLW Draft, which was the Western Bulldogs' third pick to that point but has arguably been the best player selected by the Dogs since then. Starting her career as a defender, 2023 afforded Pritchard the opportunity to spend more time in the midfield. That midfield role showed that she has some serious Fantasy scoring potential, averaging 82 points in games where she was given more than a third of the game's CBAs, with an impressive ceiling performance against St Kilda (112 points, 19 disposals, 11 tackles and four marks). With Kirsty Lamb out the door, Ellie Blackburn needs a player to step up to be her second-in-command, and Pritchard firms as the best option.

Paige Scott (FWD, $660,000)
Scott, the tackle-busting, high-flying mid/forward for Essendon is an enigma. Taken as a top-10 pick in 2022, Scott has flashed midfield scoring capability, but has never managed to consistently score well, or hold onto that midfield time. The increase in midfield time for Bonnie Toogood, and the injection of Georgia Nanscawen and Brooke Walker relegated Scott to a near perma-forward role in 2023. However, with another pre-season under her belt, it should not shock the community if Scott was given greater responsibility in the mids or higher up the ground (with reports that she is training in the midfield more this pre-season). Scott needs to lift her disposals per game and limit her free kicks against to break out for our AFLW Fantasy teams, but the talent is undeniably there.

Tyanna Smith (MID, $963,000)
After an epic debut season in 2021, averaging 72 and finishing second in the comp for tackles per game, Smith didn't see the field again until 2023 while she recovered from an ACL tear. Last season, she rejoined the Saints midfield group, and got right back to where she started, averaging 74.4 points and 7.8 tackles per game. In what will be only Smith's third season, coaches should be questioning if Smith can build on her incredibly consistent career beginning and join the ranks of the premium midfielders. The high tackle numbers and excellent kick-to-handball ratio are positive signs, but higher time on ground and more marks are what I see as the key to this young Saint breaking out – fingers crossed the gameplan can allow for it!

Ellie McKenzie (MID, $649,000)
When round one of 2024 rolls around, it will mark the start of McKenzie's fifth season, and the fourth season where fans and Fantasy coaches have asked if this is the year that she "breaks out". After her first few seasons were spent questioning whether she was a forward or a midfielder, 2024 shapes as a year where McKenzie is a full-time midfielder, off an extended pre-season after missing all bar one game of 2023 due to injury. Given her size, ability overhead, and the absolute weapon of a left foot that she possesses, the ingredients of a breakout are all there. Hopefully for AFLW Fantasy players, this is the year that the recipe for success is finally right.

Mikayla Pauga (FWD, $363,000)
Of all the other players written about on this list, Pauga is quite comfortably the least heralded. She was taken 30 picks later in her draft year (2021) than all the others and averaged a paltry 24.8 Fantasy points per game in 2023. I have included her on the list on the back of one key number: 97.8. That is what Pauga averaged in her four games playing as a midfielder for Greater Western Sydney's VFLW team this off-season, her first for the Giants after a move from premier Brisbane. With her experience in the top-tier Lions program combined with those stellar stats this pre-season, Pauga is looking set to jump up into the extremely relevant tiers of AFLW Fantasy players in 2024.

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