Gold Coast players walk off the ground after the AFLW R2 match against Carlton at Great Barrier Reef Arena on September 8, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

GOLD Coast has been hit with a hard reality check in 2024.

After reaching finals last year, the Suns have recorded a draw and two losses from their first three matches this season, with the toughest stretch of their fixture yet to come.

In week three they recorded a come-from-behind draw against Greater Western Sydney with an impressive Jamie Stanton kick after the siren, and celebrated passionately, but where are they really at?

"Team morale, I think, is important. But also, I think it's celebrating little wins. They're not where they want to be at this point in the season compared to where they were last year," Lucy Watkin said on the Credit to the Girls podcast.

"There's an aspect of a goal after the siren as well. A goal after the siren, natural adrenaline."

03:02

During the game the Giants were decimated by injury, down to just two available players on the bench for the duration of the second half, and succumbed to the Suns' fresh legs late in the game.

"Gold Coast should have been in control of that game," Gemma Bastiani said.

"GWS were remarkable, their work, their resilience was really impressive, (that's a) different conversation. Gold Coast is a team that made finals last year. Gold Coast is a team that should have been improving this year, they have gone backwards."

There is a concerning trend behind Gold Coast's poor start to the season. At each end of the ground, the numbers have tilted away from its control.

With some change and injury hitting the Suns' defence, it has become easier to score against. Opposition teams are generating more goals from their forward entries, and Gold Coast is rebounding opposition attack less effectively.

In 2023 the Suns repelled more than 80 per cent of the inside 50s they conceded, this year that's dropped below 75 per cent.

Gold Coast's defensive slip

 

Rebound Rate (%)

Opposition Goal Efficiency (%)

Opposition Scoring Efficiency (%)

Avg. Points Against

2024 WK1-3

74.5

21.4

45.9

49.7

2023

80.1

17.6

40.5

37.2

 

In the meantime, there has been a similar negative shift up forward.

The Suns are having a hard time maintaining possession inside their attacking 50 and, therefore, kicking winning scores. A sense of composure has been lost, with method going forward a little more chaotic, and goal accuracy falling away significantly.

Off the back of this, opposition defences have been able to rebound out more effectively than they did against the Suns last year.

A struggling attack

 

Opposition Rebound Rate (%)

Goal Efficiency (%)

Goal Accuracy (%)

Avg. Points For

2024 WK1-3

86.7

12.2

32.4

31.3

2023

80.1

17.5

46.9

41.6

 

Important key forward duo Tara Bohanna and Jac Dupuy are struggling to have the scoreboard impact they did last year, combining for just two goals across the opening three weeks.

Looking forward, a match against a Geelong side in a comparably difficult position, struggling to back up a finals run in 2023, is a make-or-break opportunity for each team.

The likelihood of a team qualifying for finals without a win four games into an 11-game season is slim at best, so a win is a must should Gold Coast still have a chance to qualify for consecutive finals series'.