IT IS officially the halfway point of the season, where the ladder looks wonky due to mid-week fixtures, and a real understanding of where teams fit starts to wash over everyone.
The highly anticipated 2024 edition of Brisbane v Adelaide will take place this weekend, with the AFLW's two most successful teams facing off for the 12th time in their history, while Richmond and Port Adelaide will open the week of footy, playing one another for the first time.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
Richmond v Port Adelaide at Ikon Park, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: Richmond and Port Adelaide have never played one another
Life doesn't get any easier for Port Adelaide, having to back up a tough match against North Melbourne with a mid-week fixture against a greatly improved Richmond side. The Tigers have found control this year with neat ball use, and reliable marking targets inside 50, but importantly, all of that is supported by a far more disciplined and organised defensive structure. This will be another challenge for the Power's key attacking trio of Gemma Houghton, Ash Saint, and Julia Teakle, who will need to be well supported by smalls like Caitlin Wendland and Justine Mules-Robinson.
The Power's game style typically sees them lose the disposal count, but against the Roos last week, they went minus 105 for disposals, and minus 38 for tackles, which simply gave them no chance at establishing any sort of control. This is something Richmond will no doubt aim to achieve, winning the ball at the source thanks to a strong midfield contingent, and then maintain chains of possession moving forward from there. Effort in the contest is something Port Adelaide prides itself on, but improving the connection from that contested strength to genuine attacking opportunities will be crucial, otherwise the Tigers will enjoy the Monique Conti to Katie Brennan transition forward all night.
Tip: It will be highly contested, but the Tigers will win out. Richmond by 18 points.
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
Carlton v North Melbourne at Ikon Park, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: North Melbourne 10.6 (66) defeated Carlton 1.0 (6), round two, 2023
The gap between Carlton's good and bad footy is significant, as has been proven over its last two games, but its absolute best will be needed to compete with North Melbourne on Wednesday. Last week the Blues really struggled to move through Richmond's defensive setup, and this week must come up against the most well-drilled defensive team in the league. More care and method must be taken by the Blues in their attempts to move the ball forward, while those sitting ahead of the ball must be better in competing and breaking even, to buy time until support arrives.
North Melbourne is highly efficient going forward, generating 36 inside 50s per game, and goaling from nearly a quarter of those entries. Combating the Roos' broad range of attacking options, both sitting inside 50 and pushing forward from the midfield, will be the biggest challenge for Carlton on Wednesday. Captain Kerryn Peterson copped a shoulder injury early in last week's match against the Tigers, and from there a lack of organisation was evident in the Blues' defensive structure, and they were ultimately unable to contain the duo of Katie Brennan and Caitlin Greiser, so that is something that must be tightened up if they are any chance against the Roos.
Tip: The Roos will remain undefeated. North Melbourne by 35 points.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
Geelong v Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: Geelong 9.6 (60) defeated Hawthorn 3.2 (20), round 10, 2023
Geelong re-established what its best footy looks like last week in a devastating 69-point win over Gold Coast, but this match against Hawthorn becomes the big test. Can the Cats back it up against a tough opposition on its own upward swing? Last week the Cats goaled through eight different avenues, while the Hawks are conceding just 2.8 goalkickers per game. Finding that spread in attack, rather than relying on one or two to kick the bulk of their score is a signifier that the Cats are playing their way, and will be critical should they register a second win for the season. Aishling Moloney, however, remains the key part to Geelong's forward puzzle. Without Chloe Scheer available, Moloney becomes the piece around which the rest of the attacking line orbits.
The Hawks are winning – and controlling – more of the footy than they ever have before, not only averaging 40 more disposals per game than they did last year, but averaging 65.4 per cent disposal efficiency, a significant improvement on last year's 57.3 per cent. Their most damaging attack comes when they pull all their forwards high, create space inside 50, and use speed to get out the back, or generate a one-on-one contest where they back in their teammate in the brown and gold. The concern for Geelong here is a lack of speed in defence to contend with the likes of Greta Bodey, Aine McDonagh, and Aileen Gilroy. In order to compete, and shut down this slingshot attack, the Cats must defend high up the ground, and force any Hawthorn attack to be slow and methodical, rather than quick and manic.
Tip: The Hawks have proven themselves. Hawthorn by 10 points.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Collingwood v Gold Coast at Swinburne Centre, 12:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Gold Coast 5.3 (33) defeated Collingwood 2.9 (21), round three, 2023
Collingwood is in a world of hurt: limited player availability, a lack of potency up forward, and now becoming the first side to lose to the Western Bulldogs. There has been a trend this season from the Pies where they start well, but get broken down as the game wears on, with the margin blowing out in the process. This week they simply must make the most of their early control against a Gold Coast side that has given up four first-quarter goals twice already this season. Some reward on the scoreboard for effort early in the game will be a half-step toward improvement for the Pies, and this week is the time to do it. Positively, they will also have Mikala Cann return to the midfield group, back from suspension.
Gold Coast has been arguably the biggest underperformer of the season this year, and will be eyeing this game as an opportunity to break through for its first win. With the Pies working to get a spare sitting behind the play, short and methodical kicking down the field is the best way to work through that defensive structure. But such a style of play requires neat field kicking and a high work rate – two things the Suns are yet to prove they can offer consistently this year.
Tip: The Suns will break through. Gold Coast by 12 points.
Essendon v Melbourne at Windy Hill, 2:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Melbourne 7.8 (50) defeated Essendon 1.3 (9), round nine, 2022 S7
These two teams have dropped off on last year's form and both will see this as an opportunity to snag a much-needed win before heading into their mid-week fixtures. Essendon will be focused on bringing the pressure, knowing that it is key to disrupting Melbourne's ball movement, and it certainly has the players to generate that pressure. Georgia Nanscawen, Brooke Walker and Steph Cain will need to be at their tackling best if they're to take control away from Melbourne. Under such pressure, the likes of Tyla Hanks, Lily Mithen, and Kate Hore must remain calm and composed. Above all, it's a big day for Maddy Gay, playing against her old team for the first time since crossing to the Bombers in the off season.
The Demons were fantastic moving the ball around inside 50 to generate higher-percentage opportunities at goal last year and they haven't been as effective this year – partly due to personnel, partly due to how much pressure is being applied to them. It will be important for Essendon to focus on minimising the Demons' movement around the attacking 50, because that class does still exist in Melbourne's side despite the player availability concerns. The Bombers have had similar concerns in their attack, in the absence of Bonnie Toogood, so the presence of Daria Bannister and Sophie Alexander must be felt, alongside the swing of defender Ellyse Gamble into the forward line.
Tip: It's a chance for the Demons to jump back on the winners' list. Melbourne by five points.
St Kilda v Fremantle at RSEA Park, 4:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Fremantle 6.9 (45) defeated St Kilda 3.3 (21), round eight, 2023
Ahead of the ball both St Kilda and Fremantle have some concerns coming into this week. Without Ella Friend in the goal square, the Saints became too heavily reliant on Jesse Wardlaw's marking in attack last week, forcing her to become the only genuine target, rather than a linking option to connect the forward line. Meanwhile for the Dockers, Aine Tighe's early knee injury against Melbourne forced the Dockers to rely on midfielders pressing forward to goal. Without Tighe for the remainder of the season, it is vital that the likes of Aisling McCarthy, Hayley Miller, Megan Kauffman, and Ebony Antonio continue their really attacking style of play, and force the Saints' midfield unit to defend them tightly.
The Saints are wanting to gain territory however they can, so when their run and carry game that worked so effectively across the opening two games is taken away from them, they tend to revert back to long panicked kicks out of contests, generally to an outnumber. It is something for Emma O'Driscoll to be prepared for, as she likely gets the Wardlaw matchup, while defending the Saints' outside ball users higher up the ground is crucial to limiting their weapons. Mim Strom also looms as a critical player in this one – she's averaging career-best numbers across the board and her ability to outwork an inexperienced Saints ruck contingent will give Fremantle's midfield first look.
Tip: The Dockers' outs are a concern, but they'll snatch a narrow win. Fremantle by two points.
Western Bulldogs v Sydney at Mission Whitten Oval, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: Sydney 14.12 (96) defeated Western Bulldogs 6.3 (39), round eight, 2023
In the one matchup between these two sides, Sydney recorded its highest-ever score and biggest-ever win, spurring momentum toward finals last year, but if last week's performance is anything to go by, the Bulldogs won't take the rematch lying down. The Dogs finally got some reward for effort against Collingwood last week, and although it was against an understrength side, they still put their foot down to make the most of the opportunity. Youngsters Heidi Woodley and Sarah Hartwig proved their importance to the operation of the Bulldogs' forward line, while draftees Elaine Grigg and Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner showed exactly why they were taken so high, but now it's about backing that up.
That Dogs midfield has, however, been guilty of lacking consistent defensive run, and it is here where young Sydney trio Montana Ham, Sofia Hurley and Cynthia Hamilton can really do some damage. Explosive clearances and quick movement into attack will be on the menu for the Swans as they aim for back-to-back wins. It is likely that Bulldog Lauren Ahrens will get the job on Sydney key forward Bec Privitelli, so it is up to the broader Swans attack to offer support. Ruck Ally Morphett's return will be welcome, and also allows Giselle Davies to spend more minutes playing as a second key forward alongside Privitelli to really spread the Bulldogs' defensive unit.
Tip: The Swans will gather some momentum. Sydney by 20 points.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
North Melbourne v Richmond at University of Tasmania Stadium, 1:05pm AEST
Last time they met: North Melbourne 11.8 (74) defeated Richmond 6.2 (38), semi-final, 2022 S7
If it's possible, North Melbourne looks far more ominous this year than it did in 2023, and it is building momentum. The club's midfield guns have been well-documented, with Ruby Tripodi adding depth to the line this year, and the tall forward trio of Tahlia Randall, Kate Shierlaw, and Emma King is a tough prospect. But it is the small forwards who have really emerged for the Roos this year, creating a significant challenge for the Tigers' defence. Bella Eddey had a career-best outing on Wednesday, and Alice O'Loughlin has been in fine form, so defensive organisation and concentration will be vital for Richmond. Importantly, the Tigers' defensive structure has improved in 2024, with more pressure being applied higher up the ground, and a more controlled set up behind the ball.
Making the most of its own forward entries is important for Richmond, which certainly has the firepower available. So far this season, teams have managed to maintain territory control against the Roos for extended periods of time, but simply couldn't breakthrough to score. Richmond can't get sucked into a similar situation. The likes of Emelia Yassir and Mackenzie Ford bring ground level pressure in attack, and Caitlin Greiser's defensive efforts inside 50 have greatly improved this year, but they must turn that pressure into scoring opportunities if they're any chance of challenging last year's grand finalist.
Tip: The Roos will keep on rolling. North Melbourne by 25 points.
Greater Western Sydney v West Coast at Henson Park, 3:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Greater Western Sydney 6.8 (44) defeated West Coast 3.6 (24), round six, 2023
The Giants have been consistently strong in third quarters this year, but often it is the result of poor early showings, and a need to surge back into contention. This is something Daisy Pearce and her Eagles will no doubt be conscious of coming into the second half, but just as important will be getting some scoreboard momentum across the opening two quarters of the game. Last week GWS looked reinvigorated after the main break thanks to increased defensive efforts, off the back of which they were then able to score consistently. But this was also only possible due to extra options ahead of the ball, with Tarni Evans thrown forward late in the game.
For the Eagles, maintaining a disciplined wing structure to complement their contested strength is important, so without Jaide Britton last week they were found wanting. Re-establishing that structure around the contest is the first major step toward finding their attacking transition once more. That area of the ground will be all important, too, with Bec Beeson leading the way for the Giants and Alyce Parker coming off a quiet performance – by her standards – there will be a desperation in the way GWS attacks the midfield this week. Against this, West Coast needs to be firing on all cylinders to compete with such impressive contested ball players.
Tip: The Giants' persistence will win out. Greater Western Sydney by 14 points.
Brisbane v Adelaide at Brighton Homes Arena, 3:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Brisbane 6.3 (39) defeated Adelaide 5.7 (37), qualifying final, 2023
Brisbane and Adelaide have a storied history, as the first true AFLW rivalry built up over 11 matches, spanning two Grand Finals, and four games decided by a goal or less. The Lions are the only team across the League that have a winning record against the Crows, with eight wins from those 11 starts. This year, they go into their home and away match sitting first and second on the ladder, separated by just percentage, and premiership contenders once more.
Taylor Smith's improvement in attack has made the Lions far more threatening in front of goal this year, with her working beautifully alongside Dakota Davidson, as well as the addition of 185cm ruck/forward Eleanor Hartill to the mix. The trio will present the first real challenge for Adelaide's tall defenders in Chelsea Biddell, Zoe Prowse, and Sarah Allan. They will be forced to defend individuals, limiting their ability to move off and intercept the footy. But the Crows also have immense firepower, even without Eloise Jones at their disposal. In week one the Lions were opened up by North Melbourne's clean ball use around the ground, and ability to get forwards goalside of contests. The Crows will no doubt have taken note of the style, and attempt to replicate it in their own specific way.
Tip: It will go down to the wire. Brisbane by one point.
Port Adelaide v Carlton at Alberton Oval, 4:35pm ACST
Last time they met: Port Adelaide 4.3 (27) drew with Carlton 4.3 (27), round three, 2022 S7
Port Adelaide's first priority is, and has always been, contested ball, but the balance has swung a little too far toward the hard ball this year, with 61.9 per cent of the Power's possession contested this year, and the transition to the outside hasn't been efficient enough to maintain control in games for long periods of time. Off the back of such a contested game, the club's disposal efficiency has fallen to 52.9 per cent, and on the large Alberton Oval deck there is opportunity for Carlton to exploit the Power's ball swarming with an open running game.
Unfortunately for the Blues, they are not moving the ball in a way that is predictable to one another, ultimately using the ball poorly and averaging the fewest marks in their history at just 26.6. This is reflected in the way they go inside 50, where they are taking just 3.4 marks inside 50 each match. The chemistry between Carlton's talls, specifically Mia Austin and Celine Moody, is not quite there, with the latter at times running into Austin's leading space, and struggling to maintain territory. Power defenders Amelie Borg and Ange Foley will feast on this disorganisation, and offer a solid base from which the side can repel.
Tip: Back at home, the Power will get their second win. Port Adelaide by 12 points.
