MID-WEEK footy hits hardest in the coming days, with 12 AFLW matches between Tuesday and Sunday.
It's do-or-die footy for a handful of teams, while others are simply focused on maintaining their relentless brand to keep the momentum rolling through the middle part of the season.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 1
Geelong v Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium, 7.15pm AEST
Last time they met: Geelong 6.11 (47) defeated Fremantle 3.5 (23), round seven, 2023
The Cats are in a dire position, desperately wanting to return to finals, but sitting with just one win to their name after five matches. Last week they became the highest scoring losing team in AFLW history, following on from a 69-point win the match prior, proving that they have rediscovered their ability to score in recent weeks. That scoring power has come through neat outside ball use and several avenues to goal, something they will need to engage once more if they are to challenge an up-and-about Fremantle side. Although a hamstring injury to midfield gun Amy McDonald will certainly hurt. Aishling Moloney's movement in the front half has often been a make-or-break proposition for the Cats. If Moloney is getting clean looks with ball in hand, they are seriously difficult to stop, so limiting her will no doubt be the Dockers' main priority.
Fremantle got a win over the Saints last week thanks to an ability to shut down a want to run and carry, and that is something the Dockers will need to bring into Tuesday's clash with Geelong. This year they have found a better balance between contested, and uncontested possession, which has allowed them more method and control when moving the ball forward. The addition of Aisling McCarthy around the contest, and Ash Brazill in defence, has worked wonders for the club, with the duo adding not only calm heads around the ball, but that ability to move the ball effectively in space.
Tip: The Dockers will regain Gabby O'Sullivan, bolstering the forward line. Fremantle by three points.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 2
Hawthorn v Gold Coast at Kinetic Stadium, 5.15pm AEST
Last time they met: Hawthorn and Gold Coast have never played one another
This year Hawthorn has become a team that is especially difficult to defend, because of their speed and cleanliness with the footy. Typically the Hawks create space in attack, with most forwards pressing high up the ground – bringing their direct opponents with them – and then sprinting back toward goal, often able to outrun the opposition. This looms as a real danger for the Suns, who have been torn up on their defensive transition, leaving the backline under immense pressure. Gold Coast's defensive work higher up the field must lift significantly this week in order to slow that aggressive ball movement from the Hawks.
The Suns cannot allow Hawthorn to move the ball with short, chip kicks around the midfield/half back line, because handing over control like that is playing right into the Hawks' hands. Neither side has been a great first quarter team so far this year, but after that first break, they go in two different directions. Hawthorn really gets going, piling on some devastating scoreboard pressure, and building even more in the second half. The Suns, however, have to fight for every opportunity in the front half.
Tip: The Hawks' will continue to notch up the Ws. Hawthorn by 30 points.
Essendon v Sydney at Mission Whitten Oval, 7.15pm AEST
Last time they met: Essendon 7.6 (48) defeated Sydney 7.2 (44), round eight 2022 S7
Essendon had the best win of its AFLW history last week over Melbourne, making a real statement with both scoring power and defensive strength, and will come into this one chock-full of confidence as a result. In contrast, the Swans are coming off a disappointing loss, in which the Western Bulldogs ran over the top of them late. Sydney's ball use coming out of defence has been a real problem for the side. It doesn't have the players in defence that can reliably hit a target by foot, and too often attempt to pick off a risky switch deep in the back 50, which opposition forward lines can pressure into turnover opportunities. This will be something Essendon's forwards will be wise to, particularly Daria Bannister, and could cause some problems for the Swans.
Part in parcel with this is Essendon's ability to force poor ball use from its opposition, largely through the pressure it applies, and the way it forces contested situations. The Bombers have also been absolutely ruthless in first quarters this year, doing a mountain of damage early in games to really take charge, while Sydney has struggled early in games. The Swans must weather that early storm, they cannot let Essendon do too much damage on the scoreboard early in the game.
Tip: The Bombers will ride the confidence of last week's win. Essendon by 20 points.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3
Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney at IKON Park, 7.15pm AEST
Last time they met: Melbourne 15.9 (99) defeated Greater Western Sydney 3.4 (22), round two, 2023
At its best, Melbourne was a devastating fourth quarter team, but that has totally disappeared this year, with the side being blown away late in games. Greater Western Sydney, on the other hand, had come home with a wet sail in recent weeks, just unable to snatch the wins due to the lead offered to its opposition in opening halves. The Giants will no doubt have that late surge front of mind this week, but must remain in touch in the first half and not allow Melbourne too much leg rope in that time. For Melbourne, stretching its available list, and remaining within the contest late will be the biggest sign of growth.
Playing a front half game will be crucial for the Giants, who have this year found the ability to score, but just letting a little too much through the other way. Tarni Evans' move into attack has been strong in this respect, with her running power allowing her to get up the field and impact, before beating her direct opponent back toward goal. While her strength behind the ball is important, having someone of her dynamism and athleticism ahead of the ball is arguably more important to the Giants' development.
Tip: If the Giants go all out attack, they can get their first win over Melbourne since 2017. Greater Western Sydney by 15 points.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4
Adelaide v St Kilda at Norwood Oval, 7.15pm ACST
Last time they met: Adelaide 4.5 (29) defeated St Kilda 2.1 (13), round 10, 2022 S7
St Kilda has lost the ball movement that made it so dangerous earlier in the season, and in doing so, has lost its flair and ability to attack. Even at their best, the Saints were giving up a lot of inside 50s, and this has only gotten worse in their last two games. Giving up territory to a side like Adelaide is the worst thing a team can do, because if you hand them that forward space, they will take it and control the game off the back of it. Options ahead of the ball like Caitlin Gould and Danielle Ponter are well supported by midfielders pushing forward, while their defensive set up when inside 50 is well-drilled and hard to break through.
Importantly for the Saints, they need to find a way to break through for opportunities in front of goal when opposition sides are limiting their outside run. Their scoring has dried up in the last two games, going from an average of 46.3 points for in their first three matches, to just 15.5 points in the last fortnight. This is why Adelaide's territory control is a real danger this weekend, because St Kilda has the potential to get so preoccupied on defending the Crows' weapons that it loses any chance at attacking once the ball has been won.
Tip: The Crows haven't lose consecutive games since 2020, and that's not going to change on Friday. Adelaide by 20 points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at Arden Street Oval, 1.05pm AEST
Last time they met: North Melbourne 7.13 (55) defeated Western Bulldogs 1.3 (9), round 10, 2023
North Melbourne is dangerous, but in the wet its weapons are dulled. With rain forecast for Saturday, the Dogs will be out to make the Roos really work for every attacking attempt. With the weather, and the pressure that the Western Bulldogs have stamped as their trademark in recent weeks, they have the potential to take away some of North Melbourne's neat kicking and controlled game style.
What the Dogs have become very good at recently is capitalising on forward half turnovers, with speed both to generate the turnover, and in that attacking run after the fact. This will be more difficult against such a seasoned North Melbourne defence, that is averaging the fewest points against of any side this year, conceding just 20.3 points each game. At the other end of the ground, it is the Roos' small forwards who have really lifted their output this year, with both Bella Eddey and Alice O'Loughlin having career-best seasons. Tahlia Randall, Kate Shierlaw, and Emma King will get you in the air, and Eddey and O'Loughlin will get you on the deck.
Tip: The Roos will remain undefeated. North Melbourne by 23 points.
Richmond v Collingwood at the Swinburne Centre, 3.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Richmond 11.11 (77) defeated Collingwood 4.1 (25), round 10, 2023
Although they're coming off a loss, the Tigers are playing smart footy this year, defending more effectively up the ground, and finding more balance through the midfield. This is going to prove tricky for Collingwood to break through as it doesn't have the personnel ahead of the ball to really challenge a well-organised defensive unit such as Richmond's. The Pies broke through their first win of the season last week off the back of some real resilience, but they relied heavily on midfielders pressing forward, and don't have any dangerous forwards on the road to return.
Richmond, meanwhile, is likely to get Katie Brennan and Sarah Hosking back to bolster the forward line. It's a tough unit to stop now that it is playing proactive, pressure footy in the front half. Collingwood's defensive line is solid, generally setting up in a zone, and Stacey Livingstone and Muireann Atkinson likely get the Caitlin Greiser and Brennan matchups respectively. But key to the Pies' backline structure is allowing teenager Lucy Cronin sit as the spare interceptor behind the ball. It is important that the Tigers equalise the numbers, or Cronin can have a big say in the result of the game.
Tip: The Tigers will take it, but not without a fight. Richmond by 18 points.
West Coast v Port Adelaide at Mineral Resources Park, 5.05pm AEST
Last time they met: West Coast 6.3 (39) defeated Port Adelaide 4.9 (33), round five, 2023
This year West Coast is playing with a freedom and confidence that it hasn't shown in previous years, and it is getting results on the field. Two players in particular are embodying that freedom – Ella Roberts and Bella Lewis – and playing the best footy of their careers as a result. It is a confidence that builds on the back of momentum and has proven particularly damaging through the middle quarters of games. Port Adelaide is a little similar, riding the momentum wave through games, but prone to losing composure at times.
The Power's priority is winning the contested ball, and it's something the Eagles aren't quite as dominant at, but what the latter arguably does better is the nuanced transition from inside to outside ball. The likes of Alison Drennan, Lewis, and Roberts engage their wingers effectively and go forward from there, whereas Power trio Abbey Dowrick, Maria Moloney, and Sachi Syme tend to be more bash and crash, then focused on gaining territory from the contest win. It is two contrasting styles coming out of the midfield that will likely decide the game, Port Adelaide's ability to send the ball long and fast can catch some defences out, but the Eagles' more methodical approach can do the same.
Tip: The Eagles have a perfect record against the Power, and that's not going to change. West Coast by six points.
Carlton v Brisbane at IKON Park, 7.15pm ACST
Last time they met: Brisbane 9.9 (63) defeated Carlton 4.4 (28), round three, 2022 S6
Organisation has been a problem for the Blues right across the ground this year. In defence, without captain Kerryn Peterson available, their defensive 50 exits are messy and lacking cohesion, while a dearth of forward chemistry has also been evident. Too often are Carlton forwards cutting off one-another's leading lanes, and that necessary willingness to work for one another is limited. Brisbane's experienced backline will be privy to this. The Lions snatched an important win on Sunday because of their backline's resilience, and proved just how hard they are to break through. Forward units need to be at their very best to move through the Lions' defence, and rely on getting contested marks ahead of the ball if they are to generate scoring opportunities.
Brisbane is also averaging its highest ever score, kicking 52.7 points per game, helped by the improvement of Taylor Smith and the ability of any Lion to hit the scoreboard. This year Harriet Cordner has worked incredibly hard as the Blues' key defender, but last week their lack of complementary tall defenders was exposed against Port Adelaide, and with Smith, Dakota Davidson, and Eleanor Hartill roaming Brisbane's attack, it could very well be a repeat of the same problem for Carlton.
Tip: The Lions will get the job done. Brisbane by 35 points.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6
Gold Coast v Essendon at People First Stadium, 12.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Gold Coast 6.3 (39) defeated Essendon 3.7 (25), round 10, 2023
The only time these two teams have faced off was to confirm Gold Coast's finals qualification late last year, which they did without the services of Charlie Rowbottom. This time around, the Suns are winless but with clear signs of improvement, while the Bombers are finding some consistency in the hopes of returning to finals themselves. On Wednesday against Hawthorn, the Suns established some more controlled transition down the field, but broke down when it came to their forward entries and shots on goal, which is something Essendon will feast on. The Bombers have been particularly good at defending deep in recent matches, winning the footy back through representation, pressure, and forcing poor ball use from the opposition. Young gun Amy Gaylor has been crucial in this respect, as has key back Georgia Clarke, particularly with Ellyse Gamble deployed forward.
Gold Coast looks best in the contest, finding that movement from inside to outside layers against the Hawks, and it is here that the Suns must continue to be clean should they challenge the Bombers on Sunday. Essendon's weapons up forward can hurt teams, and do it quickly. The combination of Paige Scott and Daria Bannister is increasingly dangerous, with both able to switch between attacking and defensive play very quickly, and worrying defensive units into errors. Added to this, head coach Natalie Wood has signalled that co-captain Bonnie Toogood may make her return from a knee injury suffered in week one, which would only further bolster the line.
Tip: The Bombers' momentum will continue. Essendon by 12 points.
Sydney v Geelong at Henson Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Geelong 10.8 (68) defeated Sydney 5.11 (41), round two, 2023
Neither Sydney nor Geelong have had the season they were hoping for so far, and this game is an opportunity to gather some momentum over the back half of the season. The Swans did find some solid form against Essendon on Wednesday, but simply couldn't work their way through the Bombers' defence, while the Cats are having a hard time with all lines down on form in comparison to 2023. Without strength in the air this year, particularly in the ruck, Geelong has had to change its method of transition, relying more on run and carry, and less on contested marking down the ground and inside 50. This is something the Swans will have identified, with an intention to pressure that running transition, and force errors.
At their best, the Cats are dominating the contested possession count. Since round one, 2023, just once has Geelong lost the contested possession count and gone on to win the match, otherwise a lost contested ball metric has resulted in a loss. Sydney has largely broken even at the contest this year, and it is here that it can really take the game away from the Cats. Former No.1 draft pick Montana Ham is a test for the match, and will be a handy addition in this respect, while the likes of Laura Gardiner, Tanya Kennedy and Sofia Hurley will all contribute at the contest.
Tip: The Swans are building. Sydney by two points.
Fremantle v Hawthorn at Fremantle Oval, 2.05pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 5.5 (35) defeated Hawthorn 3.4 (22), round three, 2023
Fremantle's slow starts are really the only blemish on the club's record this year, with just nine points – one goal, three behinds – recorded across its six opening quarters. After that, however, the Dockers have generally maintained scoring power, increasing significantly in final terms, so teams need to be willing to go the distance against them if they're to remain in contention. The Hawks are similar, with their record building quarter on quarter as games wear on.
Hawthorn's aggressive run was dulled by Gold Coast on Wednesday as the latter brought everything back to a tough, physical contest, while the Hawks want to get the ball to the outside. Fremantle boasts some handy contested players, but crucially, they are players who themselves transition from inside to outside methodically. Aisling McCarthy presents as a crucial player in this respect, while Eliza West is the firestarter for the Hawks in-and-under. Once on the outside, Hawthorn is more efficient in the way it uses the ball, but if Fremantle can maintain that contested pressure, it will be in the box seat for victory.
Tip: The Dockers will make it five in a row. Fremantle by eight points.
