THE FINAL week of mid-week footy is upon us, with all clubs set to reach Sunday evening with eight games under the belt.
Two match-ups will take place for the first time in Port Adelaide hosting Collingwood, and the Western Bulldogs taking on Essendon, while at the other end of the scale, Adelaide and Melbourne will meet for the 11th time across their AFLW histories.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 8
St Kilda v Greater Western Sydney at Kinetic Stadium, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: St Kilda 7.6 (48) defeated Greater Western Sydney 5.5 (35), round seven, 2023
The Saints have had their damaging run at attack taken away from them expertly in recent weeks, and it has forced them back into a hyper-defensive, dour style of football. Against Adelaide last Friday, they succumbed to sending extras behind the ball, crowding the Crows' attacking line and making for a tough, physical game. Flooding players back might help to stop the opposition's scoring, but it also means that when St Kilda wins the footy, it can't engage that aggressive run that it made its brand earlier this year because it simply doesn't have the representation ahead of the ball to make it work. It is this week against the Giants that it needs to re-establish that running game style in order to land in its first finals series.
Greater Western Sydney's first priority needs to be shutting down Jesse Wardlaw, because slowing her limits St Kilda's scoring power significantly due to her ability to set teammates up close to goal. This is likely a job for Pepa Randall, who can make the battle a real scrap. The opening half will also be crucial for the Giants, who have allowed their opposition far too much leeway on the scoreboard early in games, that even with strong second-half form, is too much for them to overcome. Limiting St Kilda's scoring power early must be a priority, while for the Saints, gathering early momentum could be make-or-break.
Tip: The Saints will get back on the winners' list. St Kilda by 18 points.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9
Adelaide v Melbourne at Norwood Oval, 7.15pm ACDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 8.8 (56) defeated Melbourne 7.4 (46), round six, 2023
Across their 10 matches to date, Adelaide and Melbourne have broken even with five wins each. They come into this one in quite a different fashion to most recent matchups, however, with the Demons breaking through for an important win last week amidst a tricky season, just their second of the season, while Adelaide has recorded five wins from six starts, but has been forced to grind it out over the last fortnight. In the face of a massive injury list, Melbourne adjusted its style of play to record a strong win over the Giants, opting to use contest and territory to its advantage, and playing this way again has the potential to impose another grind on the Crows.
A must for Adelaide is to shut down any early influence Kate Hore might have on the contest. Giving her the opportunity to gather early confidence and momentum is a real danger because she is the heartbeat of the Demons. Meanwhile, Adelaide has a real advantage up forward, with Caitlin Gould's form in the air impressive, averaging 2.6 marks inside 50 per game to date, and likely to keep Tahlia Gillard's hands full for the duration. With that battle underway, the likes of Danielle Ponter and Chelsea Randall are sure to find the space to get dangerous near goal.
Tip: The Crows will break the head-to-head deadlock. Adelaide by 13 points
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10
Port Adelaide v Collingwood at Alberton Oval, 7.15pm ACDT
Last time they met: Port Adelaide and Collingwood have never played one another
Port Adelaide recorded its first consecutive wins in its history over the last fortnight, and will be confident of making that three in a row against the struggling Pies. It is a hugely contested ball team, and at times gets sucked into the stopping, slow-moving style that contested footy can be, but last week the Power was able to flick a switch to turn that contest strength into genuine attack. Ensuring they engage their stacked forward line is important when it comes to maintaining the momentum they have begun to gather. Gemma Houghton is in career best form, while Ash Saint, Julia Teakle, Olivia Levicki, and even Caitlin Wendland are presenting as dangerous options in front of goal.
The Pies will be keen to celebrate captain Brianna Davey's 50th game with a win, and finally look on track to enjoy some consistency in player availability. They, too, are a contested team, but enjoy more of a balance between that inside and outside ball, so if they can efficiently execute that transition regularly throughout the game, they will win control. The likes of Brit Bonnici, Davey, and Mikala Cann will compete hard at stoppage, but that ability to win the hard ball needs to exist right across the ground in order to shut the Power down.
Tip: The Power will continue its historic run. Port Adelaide by 22 points.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11
Western Bulldogs v Essendon at Mission Whitten Oval, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: The Western Bulldogs and Essendon have never played one another
In recent matches Essendon has established a real resilience in backs-against-the-wall circumstances. It has lived dangerously deep in defence for long periods, and stood up to the challenge, led particularly well by Georgia Clarke, Amy Gaylor, and Maddison Gay, and while the Bombers don't want to live in defence, they will be confident knowing they can remain strong. This presents as a tricky prospect for the Bulldogs, who failed to take a mark inside 50 last week against North Melbourne, and struggle to generate scoring opportunities when their forward 50 is congested. Employing strategies to create space in attack will be important for the Western Bulldogs, who look best with empty grass out the back and the footspeed of players like Heidi Woodley, Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner, and now Zimmorlei Farquharson heading toward goal.
Essendon's attack does have the potential to stretch the Dogs' defence, especially with key back Lauren Ahrens under an injury cloud. Issy Grant has been strong all season, as has Elisabeth Georgostathis, but with Bonnie Toogood now back in the Bombers' attack alongside Daria Bannister, Paige Scott, Sophie Alexander, and Ellyse Gamble, it will prove a tough line to stop. The Bulldogs are especially vulnerable when the opposition puts speed on the ball, which often isolates their defenders in one-on-ones. Slowing that ball movement up the ground will be important.
Tip: The Bombers' surge is on. Essendon by 27 points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12
Hawthorn v West Coast at Kinetic Stadium, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Hawthorn 6.8 (44) defeated West Coast 6.5 (41), round six, 2022 S7
Hawthorn is very, very good at adapting to the windy conditions at Kinetic Stadium, defending hard when against the win, and scoring heavily when it has the advantage. This is a problem for the Eagles, who have been susceptible to conceding heavy runs of goals this year, including eight consecutive goals against Brisbane, five against Port Adelaide, and four against Richmond, meanwhile the Hawks have been on the other side of that kind of momentum swing regularly this season. Preventing Hawthorn from doing so much damage on the scoreboard when it does win control will need to be a high priority for West Coast on Saturday.
Similarly to the Bulldogs above, the Eagles can at times be caught out down back when forced to play one-on-one, rather than supporting each other as a unit. This is particularly dangerous given Hawthorn's ability to move the ball quickly and efficiently with run, and angle-changing kicks. Former captain Tilly Lucas-Rodd is a key architect of this style of play, setting up off half back, they set up those slicing kicks and organise the ground, so there is potential for an Eagle like Sanne Bakker to play somewhat of a defensive forward role.
Tip: The Hawks will solidify their top four credentials. Hawthorn by 20 points.
Richmond v Geelong at the Swinburne Centre, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Geelong 6.13 (49) defeated Richmond 1.5 (11), round nine, 2023
Put simply, this is a must-win game for Geelong. Lose, and finals become a significantly tougher prospect for last year's preliminary finalist. To be in with a shot, the Cats need to get better at finishing in front of goal, with last week's return of 5.14 following on from 3.9 the week before. The method of moving the ball around the forward 50 to create high percentage opportunities needs some tweaking, and with Jackie Parry and Aishling Moloney hitting their straps at this point of the season, giving them the space to do their best work is important. Richmond's ability to defend high up the ground, and layer that defence, however, will make that difficult for the Cats.
At the other end of the ground, Richmond's marking inside 50 has been its best asset this year as it leads the competition for the metric with 8.1 per game. Katie Brennan is leading the way with 2.2 each week, but the likes of Caitlin Greiser, Sarah Hosking, and Tamara Luke have also proven to be dangerous targets in the front half. Geelong is conceding the most inside 50s it ever has, and is allowing its opposition 6.7 marks inside 50 per match, so this area presents as the defining part of the game. If Geelong can tighten up in the back half, pressure the Tigers' forward entries, and offer its backline more support, then it is in with a shot. If not, the Cats are in real trouble.
Tip: Scoring power will win out. Richmond by 10 points.
Brisbane v Gold Coast at Brighton Homes Arena, 4.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Brisbane 8.9 (57) defeated Gold Coast 3.3 (21), round seven, 2023
Gold Coast has tightened up defensively in recent weeks, but it hasn't had the class to break through opposition pressure to kick a winning score. This only gets more difficult against Brisbane this weekend. The Suns have been able to force a contest against some good sides through improving the confidence of their forwards – particularly Jac Dupuy and Tara Bohanna – but there have been too many sloppy moments amidst it all. They are giving away the third-most free kicks of any side this year, and this is something that really needs tightening because it too often hands control to the opposition, and the Lions will take that control and run with it.
Brisbane is kicking higher scores than it ever has, averaging 54.9 points per game, and this has increased to over 10 goals per game in the last month. The club's scoring power is immense, with its spread of 5.6 goalkickers per game making it especially hard to defend, and able to capitalise on any lapse in concentration. It is well-known that Brisbane uses its run to great advantage, both attacking and defensively, and it is here that the Suns can attempt to disrupt the reigning premier. Taya Oliver has come in and had an impact on the wing for Gold Coast in the last fortnight, and Niamh McLaughlin's dash up the corridor is eye catching, but connecting that run with targets inside 50 remains a problem.
Tip: The Lions' run of QClash victories will continue. Brisbane by 30 points.
Fremantle v Carlton at Fremantle Oval, 4.15pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 5.2 (32) drew with Carlton 5.2 (32), round four, 2022 S7
Docker Mim Strom has the potential to shape this battle. Her strength in the ruck likely forces the Blues to run Breann Moody in opposition to her, which will rob Carlton's already struggling forward line. The Blues are not only sending the ball forward less than they did last year, they are also simply failing to capitalise when they do generate chances deep in attack. Scoring a goal from just 9.4 per cent of those limited forward entries, Carlton has kicked just five goals across its last four matches. This is something that All-Australian defender Emma O'Driscoll and Dockers recruit Ash Brazill will be enthusiastic about, knowing they have the opportunity to not only disrupt Carlton's attack, but launch their own off the back of that.
Through the middle, although without Kiara Bowers and Ange Stannett, Fremantle is actually averaging a club-best 29.4 clearances by way of an even spread of contributors. Gabby Newton (4.3 per game), Hayley Miller (4.2), and Aisling McCarthy (4.0) are leading the way, but such a broad range of contributors has made the Dockers particularly dangerous at the contest. While Carlton has some strong onballers, with Keeley Sherar and Maddy Guerin both on the rise, protecting the next layer around stoppage is crucial to preventing that clearance dominance turning into inside 50s.
Tip: The Dockers will strengthen their top four hopes. Fremantle by 18 points.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
North Melbourne v Sydney at North Hobart Oval, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: North Melbourne 9.13 (67) defeated Sydney 0.1 (1), round six, 2022 S7
North Melbourne has been up against it this season, regularly forced to play in wet and wild conditions, and while the weather has dulled some of the club's weapons, it has still proven just how damaging it can be. Somewhat unluckily for Sydney, there is currently no rain forecast for Sunday's match in North Hobart, giving the Roos a chance to re-establish their sharp, short kicking game that so efficiently split open Brisbane's defence in week one. Ominously, what recent wet-weather games have offered North Melbourne is a chance to hone its balance between its own ball use, and pressure applied to the opposition.
Poor first quarters in recent weeks have really come back to hurt the Swans, with their last three matches resulting in three losses, for a combined losing margin of just 13 points. They have been really missing Montana Ham through the middle of the ground as she manages an ongoing foot concern. While the hope is that she returns for Sunday's clash, finding a way to compete with North Melbourne's powerful midfield group is important. The Western Bulldogs showed a blueprint in the opening quarter last week, and Sydney will no doubt take some lessons from how that term played out, but the difficulty is doing it for the duration. Another huge challenge for Sydney is through the ruck, with Giselle Davies and Lexi Hamilton preparing to do battle with North Melbourne's expert ruck division of Kim Rennie and Emma King, who regularly give the Roos' midfield best use.
Tip: It's a bridge too far for Sydney. North Melbourne by 22 points.
St Kilda v Melbourne at RSEA Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Melbourne 6.10 (46) defeated St Kilda 3.2 (20), round three, 2022 S7
Melbourne has reinvigorated its season with back-to-back wins, which have been built on a slight shift in game style. It has found control in games by bringing everything back to contest, pressure, and surge footy, making best use of the players it does have at its disposal. It has led to some tough footy at times, but it's working a treat for the Dees who are now, remarkably, just one game (and significant percentage) outside of the top eight with four games to play. Unfortunately for St Kilda, this hyper-contested, tight style of footy is exactly what has tripped it up this year. When limited on the outside, the Saints lose their flare, and tend to go into their defensive shells, making for a slog.
The Demons' backline, led by Tahlia Gillard, Maeve Chaplin, Sinead Goldrick, and Gab Colvin, was immense against Adelaide on Wednesday, perfectly positioned and reliably intercepting in the air. This is something the Saints will need to work through methodically, particularly with Jesse Wardlaw likely to cop the Gillard matchup. What both teams have done well this week is force their opposition to overuse the footy, so the Saints need to be wary of this in the front half, limiting the number of turnover opportunities they hand the high-pressure Demons.
Tip: The Demons are gathering momentum. Melbourne by four points.
Greater Western Sydney v Adelaide at Henson Park, 5.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 16.10 (106) defeated Greater Western Sydney 5.7 (37), round four, 2023
In the ninth meeting between these two inaugural sides, they couldn't be in more different positions. The Crows, although coming off a tense, physical loss to Melbourne, are sitting pretty in the top eight and on the way to a seventh finals series, while the Giants haven't quite managed to live up to the potential that their week one demolition of the Western Bulldogs showed. Adelaide will be smarting after Wednesday's loss, in which it largely kicked itself out of it, but needs to learn to adapt and play its best footy in the face of manic pressure from the opposition. Danielle Ponter was well held by Maeve Chaplin, whose aggressive positioning and desire to intercept and rebound wore down Ponter's confidence as the game went on. The Giants will have identified this as a potential weak point, and will likely come into the game with a plan for Ponter – especially in the forward half.
Slow starts have been killing Greater Western Sydney this year, with the side essentially petering out to the main break, before hitting the field with a burst of energy to start the third term. This typically coincides with Zarlie Goldsworthy's injection into the midfield, so her split between midfield and forward may be adjusted to get the most out of her. In attack, Brodee Mowbray and Alicia Eva have been lurking as dangerous small forwards, but need more of an aerial presence to work from – someone who can compete with the Crows' tall defenders and bring the ball to ground to allow them into the game.
Tip: The Crows will get back to their winning ways. Adelaide by 25 points.
