MID-WEEK footy is done and dusted, and now the focus shifts to the run to finals.
Crucial games between finals fancies Port Adelaide and St Kilda, and West Coast and Fremantle will have a big impact, while Melbourne's recent run of form has made its match against Richmond on Saturday a tantalising one.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17
Carlton v Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: Carlton 8.5 (53) defeated the Western Bulldogs 4.10 (34), round six, 2023
The Bulldogs were placed under a microscope after last week's highly defensive game style, so now questions will be asked if that changes this week after such intense scrutiny. Should they stick to their guns, another slog will be on the cards, with these two teams the lowest scoring sides of the season, but if the Dogs throw off the shackles and make use of their speed in attack, there is potential for a tense, attacking game from both sides. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they are simply struggling to get their hands on the footy, particularly at the contest. Averaging just 97 contested possessions per game – the only club to average fewer than 100 in the last two seasons – they hand the opposition control from the outset, from which they give up a competition-worst 54.9 marks per game.
Carlton will have identified this and, amidst their own worries, a focus on the contested ball all season will have them in good stead, particularly in Abbie McKay's 50th AFLW match. The Blues have struggled with their connection going inside 50, and have found their most dangerous footy when opting to run the ball forward rather than pick off a marking target in attack. When their midfielders are kicking goals, they look most likely to challenge on the scoreboard.
Tip: The Blues will get their first win at home since week three. Carlton by 15 points.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18
Port Adelaide v St Kilda at Alberton Oval, 7.15pm ACDT
Last time they met: Port Adelaide 8.8 (56) defeated St Kilda 7.6 (48), round three, 2023
Port Adelaide and St Kilda have had opposing fortunes throughout games. The Power tend to be slow starters, before surging home late, while the Saints have tired as games wear on. For this reason, it's fair to expect this match will have a significant swing in momentum around the main break. With Julia Teakle out of the side with a knee injury, it's likely that Olivia Levicki will get a reprieve in attack for Port Adelaide, while last week's Telstra Rising Star nominee Matilda Scholz has an opportunity to change the game up against St Kilda's cobbled-together ruck division.
A crucial aspect for the Power will be who gets the role on Saints star Jesse Wardlaw. It can really be a make-or-break choice, as Wardlaw has kicked six goals in the past fortnight, and has largely become the club's only conduit to goal in recent weeks. In St Kilda's winning opening run, it averaged six goalkickers per game, and in the time since it has averaged just 2.8, with Wardlaw kicking nearly half of the Saints' goals in that time. It is a role that probably falls to experienced campaigner Ange Foley, or underrated teenager Amelie Borg. The Saints' stagnating ball movement has minimised opportunities for other forwards to get involved in the play as consistently, as they struggle to break through defensive setups, so they need to establish that hard-running, speedy style of play once more.
Tip: The Power will fancy its chances. Port Adelaide by three points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19
Hawthorn v Greater Western Sydney at Kinetic Stadium, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Greater Western Sydney 4.10 (34) defeated Hawthorn 5.3 (33), round eight, 2022 S7
One of Greater Western Sydney's biggest weaknesses – trapping the ball in attack for extended periods of time – is set to be exploited by one of Hawthorn's biggest strengths – end-to-end transition play. This will also be compounded by the Hawks' speed, something the Giants lack, particularly in the back half. Even without Greta Bodey available, the likes of Aine McDonagh, Aileen Gilroy, Mikayla Williamson, and even Jasmine Fleming from the middle have the potential to really slice the Giants' defence open.
It's vital that the Giants defend the contest effectively, and consistently. This doesn't simply mean winning clearances of their own to maintain possession, but cutting off the Hawks' desired handball game around stoppage to find an exit. Disrupting Hawthorn's release from stoppage to its outside runners is the first port of call when it comes to slowing down its devastating attack. Where this game has real potential to swing Hawthorn's way is in the second quarter, whereby the Hawks have done the most damage this year, having lost just one second term all year – to Adelaide. Meanwhile, second quarters have been the Giants' worst this year, with no second quarter win to their name.
Tip: The Hawks will cement their place in the top four. Hawthorn by 30 points.
Sydney v Gold Coast at Henson Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Sydney 9.4 (58) defeated Gold Coast 6.5 (41), elimination final, 2023
It's safe to say these are two teams whose seasons haven't quite gone to plan, but there will be a hope that they can find some winning form over the final three weeks. Both sides also had honourable losses to tough opposition last week, so will feel like they're bringing momentum into this one, and two former No.1 draft picks in Montana Ham and Charlie Rowbottom will likely spend some time going head-to-head as big-bodied midfield options.
The Swans want to move quickly, playing on from marks often to put speed on the ball, but this can also result in some rushed decision-making and poor disposal. Because of this, their method going forward can be a bit of a lottery at times, particularly with defensive units covering Bec Privitelli so well this year. It's fair to expect that Charlotte Wilson will be handed the role on Privitelli, so the likes of Bella Smith and Giselle Davies – when resting forward – need to really stretch the Suns' backline. At the other end of the ground, Taya Oliver has added an element of speed to Gold Coast's attack – something it has been sorely lacking this year – and alongside the contested marking prowess of Jac Dupuy and Tara Bohanna, could really threaten the Swans' defence. One thing's for sure, this will go down to the wire.
Tip: The Swans love a game at Henson Park. Sydney by one point.
Melbourne v Richmond at Casey Fields, 5.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Melbourne 8.6 (54) defeated Richmond 6.2 (38), round two, 2022 S6
Melbourne is playing reinvigorated footy, and has won three on the trot. This has come off the back of increased ability around the contest and forwards like Alyssa Bannan hitting some strong form. They are starting to show the Demons of old, and while finals might be a step too far, they look like they're going to go down swinging. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been far better at linking their lines this year. Layered defensive set up, dynamic midfield, and smarter, more skilful kicking inside 50 to marking targets. As a result, Richmond is the second-best team when it comes to marking inside 50 and from there, the club compresses the game into its front half.
The Tigers are focused on long kicking and leaning on contested marks, because they have established such strength in the air, but the Demons are bringing their finesse around contest back, with quick handballs out of stoppage to running options. Above all, Ellie McKenzie and Eilish Sheerin have the potential to change this game with their powerful midfield work, and delivery into forwards like Katie Brennan and Caitlin Greiser.
Tip: The Tigers have never been more well-placed to beat the Demons. Richmond by five points.
West Coast v Fremantle at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, 4.05pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 4.3 (27) defeated West Coast 2.7 (19), round one, 2023
Fremantle wants to play front half footy, but when it gets sucked into the back half it tends to struggle to generate scoring opportunities. The problem for the Eagles, however, is their inability to consistently apply that forward half compression, sitting 17th in the competition for inside 50s, and last for intercepts in the front half. West Coast simply allows the opposition to rebound the footy out of its front half too easily, so it is in this area of the ground that the game will be won, or lost. If the Eagles can force the game into its front half, they are in with a genuine shot, but it would require a significant shift for the growing side.
Still yet to win a first quarter this year, the Dockers need to establish some sort of control early in games should they become a genuine threat in finals, and this week is a great opportunity to find that fast start. Meanwhile Aisling McCarthy – now at Fremantle – and Roxy Roux – now at West Coast – will each play their former side for the first time, adding some extra bite to an already emotion-fuelled match.
Tip: The Eagles will get close again, but the Dockers will maintain their perfect record. Fremantle by four points.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20
Geelong v Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Brisbane 6.2 (38) defeated Geelong 5.4 (34), preliminary final, 2023
One of the most dramatic games of last year was Brisbane's narrow, tense preliminary final win over Geelong, and now a rematch between the two sides has them in vastly different positions. Although the Cats can still mathematically reach finals, the likelihood of that is slim at best, while the Lions are working to build momentum toward finals. They are the two teams that are best at transitioning the footy from defensive to forward 50, so it's fair to anticipate a hard-running, outside game.
It's at the contest that the Lions will establish control, and then maintain it from there. They are very good at turning that midfield strength into scores, the Cathy Svarc breakaway, the Belle Dawes energy, all leads to a damaging spread in attack. They average 5.5 goalkickers per game, and Geelong hasn't been the best at defending an attacking spread this year. For Geelong, Aishling Moloney has been particularly threatening, and has the potential to create some headaches for Brisbane's defence. Last time they met, her fellow countrywoman Jennifer Dunne was handed the role on her, and we may well be in for battle No.2 between them.
Tip: The Lions are sharpening their claws for finals. Brisbane by 17 points.
Essendon v North Melbourne at Windy Hill, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Essendon and North Melbourne have never played one another
North Melbourne is one of the absolute best teams in the competition at converting inside 50 entries to scores, and this is for a couple of reasons. The Roos' forwards maintain their length – that is, maintain representation in layers ahead of the ball to capitalise on quick transition play – and they also have a dangerous combination of players who can dominate both in the air, and on the ground. It is likely for this reason that Essendon coach Natalie Wood opted to send Ellyse Gamble back into defence last week, in preparation for North Melbourne's stacked forward line. Gamble, the recently returned Brooke Brown, Maddison Gay, and Georgia Clarke will all need to be at their best if the Bombers are to have any chance at winning this one.
At the other end of the ground, Essendon needs to ensure it takes its chances when it has them near goal. The Roos have at times been forced to live in their back half, but they defend that territory exceptionally well, and often break the spirit of their opposition because it simply cannot break through to score. This is where the combination of Daria Bannister and Paige Scott can cause some trouble for North Melbourne's defence, with the duo's movement through traffic particularly difficult to stop.
Tip: The Roos are well on their way to the minor premiership. North Melbourne by 24 points.
Collingwood v Adelaide at Victoria Park, 5.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 3.5 (23) defeated Collingwood 1.5 (11), semi-final, 2022 S7
Adelaide will be well aware that it hasn't quite played its best footy in recent weeks, even though a 10-goal win over the Giants on Sunday might make it look like its cruising. But this is arguably an even more ominous sign for the teams the Crows will face in coming matches, as they have identified potential areas of weakness and have gone to work on upgrading their armour. Where the Crows are most dangerous is around stoppage, with Ebony Marinoff's work obviously elite, but the dynamism of players like Danielle Ponter and Stevie-Lee Thompson has really made Adelaide increasingly dangerous, and reliably able to score from those stoppages. Collingwood's midfield unit of Brianna Davey, Brit Bonnici, and Mikala Cann will be up against it, especially given that it was around the middle that the Pies were exposed in their loss to Port Adelaide last week.
In attack, Caitlin Gould's presence is only growing as the season wears on. She is the best contested mark in the game this year, and one of the best options for marks inside 50 – both because of her own impressive form, and the way in which her teammates are delivering the footy. While Stacey Livingstone will likely be handed the role on Gould, she will be relying on her teammates higher up the field to pressure the Crows' kicks inside 50.
Tip: It has been a tough season for the Pies, and that's only going to continue. Adelaide by 35 points.
