THE TOP-EIGHT race is down to 12, after Carlton's vague mathematical hopes were extinguished by a disappointing loss to the Western Bulldogs.
With two rounds remaining, North Melbourne and Hawthorn are the only sides to have officially qualified for finals, while Kuwarna and Brisbane are likely to round out the top four.
Geelong has kept its season alive, while a host of teams are log-jammed in the bottom half of the top eight.
How's the run home shaping up for your side?
Carlton, Sydney, the Western Bulldogs, Greater Western Sydney, Collingwood and Gold Coast have not been considered.
1. North Melbourne
34 points (eight wins, one draw), 335.6 per cent
Still holding firm on that two-point buffer in first, but the Roos' minor premiership hopes boil down to Friday night's blockbuster against Kuwarna, given they should comfortably beat Gold Coast in the final round. With 10 points separating first from fifth, North Melbourne is now guaranteed a top-four spot.
The run home
R9: Kuwarna @ Norwood Oval
R10: Gold Coast @ Arden Street Oval
2. Hawthorn
32 points (eight wins, one loss), 196.3 per cent
Hawthorn is now guaranteed to play finals for the first time in its short AFLW history, and are in the box seat for a top-four spot. Cairns can throw up some variable results, and a rising Narrm will arguably be the Hawks' toughest test this year. The final-week clash with fifth-place Richmond still looks likely to decide the top four.
The run home
R9: Narrm @ Cazalys Stadium
R10: Richmond @ Swinburne Centre
3. Kuwarna
28 points (seven wins, two losses), 198.6 per cent
Kuwarna is inching closer to completely locking away a top-four spot, but can still slip out with a double loss to North Melbourne and the suddenly in-form Geelong. The Crows' very healthy percentage should create a bit of a buffer if that occurs, with a slide to seventh or eighth (and subsequent away elimination final) highly unlikely.
The run home
R9: North Melbourne @ Norwood Oval
R10: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
4. Brisbane
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 180.6 per cent
Not only did Brisbane blow the chance to all but lock up a top-four spot in its loss to Geelong in week eight, the Lions also lost 16.9 per cent in the process, and slid one spot on the ladder. Brisbane remains vulnerable to dropping out of the top four, should Richmond or Walyalup get on a roll and the Lions lose to either Sydney or Euro-Yroke. Highly unlikely, but the Lions lost to the Saints this time last year in a boilover.
The run home
R9: Sydney @ Brighton Homes Arena
R10: Euro-Yroke @ RSEA Park
5. Richmond
24 points (six wins, three losses), 171.2 per cent
The Tigers dropped their best look at a top-four spot and nearly 20 per cent in their loss to Narrm, despite Caitlin Greiser's best efforts, kicking three goals in the final minutes to somewhat haul her side back. It's not the easiest run home for Richmond either, needing to win at least one of its final two games – against Essendon in Darwin, and Hawthorn – to completely lock itself into finals. Unlikely to completely slide out, given their percentage, but it's still possible.
The run home
R9: Essendon @ TIO Stadium
R10: Hawthorn @ Swinburne Centre
6. Walyalup
24 points (six wins, three losses), 125.1 per cent
It was a vital win over Waalitj Marawar, securing a key four points after two consecutive losses, and putting a dent the in Eagles' own finals hopes. Like Richmond, the Dockers remain vulnerable to a slide out of the top eight should the wheels fall off. They'll start favourites against both Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs, but both teams have been quite inconsistent, and are capable of turning the tables.
The run home
R9: Greater Western Sydney @ Henson Park
R10: Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Oval
7. Yartapuulti
20 points (five wins, four losses), 110.7 per cent
Yartapuulti's fourth straight win – coming against Euro-Yroke – has had a huge impact on this area of the ladder, pushing the Power from ninth to seventh and in the mix for their first AFLW finals appearance. They'll still have to win at least one of their two final games to properly secure a top-eight spot, but on their form, should start favourites against both Gold Coast and the Giants.
The run home
R9: Gold Coast @ People First Stadium
R10: Greater Western Sydney @ Alberton Oval
8. Essendon
20 points (five wins, four losses), 93.5 per cent
On the face of it, Essendon did well to limit the damage against North Melbourne to a 20 per cent loss, given how dire things appeared in the opening half. The Bombers are likely to be racing with Narrm for the final spot in the top eight, and given their superior percentage, might just squeak home. Beating Carlton is vital, and defeating Richmond this weekend in Darwin will help immensely.
The run home
R9: Richmond @ TIO Stadium
R10: Carlton @ Ikon Park
9. Narrm
20 points (five wins, four losses), 75.1 per cent
The comeback remains alive, but Narrm will be kicking itself after conceding three late goals to Richmond, limiting its percentage increase to just 6.7. Given their percentage issues, the Demons probably need to beat both Hawthorn (in Cairns) and Collingwood in the next two weeks to scrape into the top eight. The Dees are coming good at the right time, and can cause some finals chaos should they make it.
The run home
R9: Hawthorn @ Cazalys Stadium
R10: Collingwood @ Ikon Park
10. Euro-Yroke
16 points (four wins, five losses), 103.8 per cent
Unfortunately, it looks as though the Saints will once again just miss out on finals after their costly loss to Yartapuulti. Two wins will be needed – then a possible race for percentage – in order for Euro-Yroke to haul itself back into the top eight. They beat Brisbane in an upset last year, but twice seems unlikely, while the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat could upset the apple cart.
The run home
R9: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium
R10: Brisbane @ RSEA Park
11. Waalitj Marawa
16 points (four wins, five losses), 71.0 per cent
Unfortunately, it looks as though the Eagles' amazing run under new coach Daisy Pearce has come to an end after a disappointing Derby loss to Walyalup. Big wins against both Geelong and Sydney are needed in order to boost that percentage, as well as some chaos among the teams ahead of them on the ladder.
The run home
R9: Geelong @ Mineral Resources Park
R10: Sydney @ Henson Park
12. Geelong
14 points (three wins, one draw, five losses), 103.4 per cent
Geelong has hauled itself off the canvas with a shock win over Brisbane, remaining in the "mathematically possible" finals mix. The Cats will have to knock over both the Eagles in Perth and Kuwarna in Geelong, as well as needing one (or two) of Yartapuulti, Essendon and Narrm to completely throw in the towel. But it appears the only team to have taken points off both North Melbourne and Brisbane will miss finals.
The run home
R9: Waalitj Marawa @ Mineral Resources Park
R10: Kuwarna @ GMHBA Stadium
