THERE are no more second chances. Every error from here on in will be magnified, but both Adelaide and Fremantle are well-versed in the do-or-die nature of semi-finals.
Can the Crows progress to a fifth preliminary final? Or will the Dockers see the perennial contenders go out in straight sets?
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 16
Adelaide v Fremantle at Norwood Oval, 3.05pm ACDT
Head-to-head: Adelaide – seven wins, Fremantle – one win
Last time they met: Adelaide 5.9 (39) defeated Fremantle 0.6 (6), week two, 2024
Ebony Marinoff (31 disposals, 19 tackles) and Anne Hatchard (29 disposals, two goals) starred for Adelaide, holding the Dockers goalless on their home deck. It was a steadfast defensive performance from the Crows, who forced Fremantle's shots on goal wide and at a distance, before breaking free to attack on their own terms. A lot has changed in the time since, however, as Fremantle's Aine Tighe and Adelaide's Eloise Jones both played in this game, before being struck down with long-term injuries in the following weeks.
Key match-up: Jess Allan v Mim Strom
Last week, Mim Strom was the gamebreaker for the Dockers in a stunning performance that bore a record 55 hitouts, 26 disposals and a goal, albeit against an inexperienced ruck division. This week, Strom must take on another elite ruck in Jess Allan, and find a way to support her midfield in a similar fashion.
Allan's connection with her midfield unit is exceptional. She leads the League for average hitouts to advantage (11.1) and wins 55.8 per cent of ruck contests, while she boasts the likes of Marinoff, Danielle Ponter, Hatchard and Chelsea Randall at her feet. Strom's midfield might not have the star names that Adelaide does, although Aisling McCarthy has shot up through the ranks this year, but their ability to operate as a unit under Strom has been impressive.
It is around the ground that the pair also compete so well, Strom more in terms of a defensive tall, while Allan tends to get involved in aggressive attacking chains. As a result, they are ideally matched to go head-to-head all afternoon, and have significant impact on their respective side's fortunes.
Where it will be won
Unfortunately for Adelaide, everything still comes back to its ability to convert its chances. That means both in terms of accuracy and generating opportunities once in scoring range – both of which have reared their heads at different times in recent weeks. Fremantle is also very good at restricting its opposition in attack, conceding a goal from just 14.1 per cent of inside 50s against, and conceding a shot on goal from just 34.2 per cent of entries.
The Dockers' goal accuracy has been concerning at times this year as well, but they have had players step up in front of goal in clutch moments, with Gabby O'Sullivan's late goal last week just the most recent example.
They are the second and third-best teams in defence this year, with Adelaide conceding only 25.9 points per game, and Fremantle 27.0 – more only than minor premier North Melbourne.
In terms of style, these sides differ greatly. Adelaide leads the League for contested marks with an average of 6.6, and Fremantle brings up the rear with just 3.1 per game, while the Crows are more of an end-to-end transition team, and the Dockers are more reliant on generating scores from forward-half intercepts.
Fremantle's slow first quarters is something the club has started to lean into, almost conceding a quarter one loss with the goal of coming home strong, but it cannot allow Adelaide too much early leg rope, because it is one of the toughest teams to reign in once it has gathered momentum.
Tip: The Dockers won't make it easy, but the Crows will reach a fifth preliminary final. Adelaide by nine points.
