IT ALL comes down to this.
Ninety-nine home and away games, eight finals, and now North Melbourne and Brisbane will face off in the ultimate decider for the second year running.
They proved themselves to be the best teams across the competition in that time with their powerful midfields, devastating scoring power, and staunch defensive lines. Both boast stars on all lines, and were rewarded with a combined seven players in the All-Australian team.
But on the biggest of days, who comes out on top?
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 30
North Melbourne v Brisbane at Ikon Park, 7:45pm AEDT
Head-to-head: North Melbourne – one win, Brisbane – five wins
Last time they met: North Melbourne 12.6 (78) defeated Brisbane 5.4 (34), week one, 2024
In the 2023 Grand Final rematch, the Roos won their first match over the Lions, handing them their heaviest ever defeat in the process. North Melbourne's 37 points in the third quarter did the bulk of the damage, showing of the speed in which the Roos could score when they gathered momentum. Midfield duo Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner combined for 58 disposals and two goals, while the victors also enjoyed four multiple goalkickers on the day in Alice O'Loughlin, Vikki Wall, Niamh Martin, and Bella Eddey. For Brisbane, Ally Anderson was immense with 29 disposals, 15 clearances, and one goal.
Key matchup: Tahlia Randall v Jennifer Dunne
North Melbourne key forward Tahlia Randall was the side's leading goalkicker last season, and while she sits third at the club for the metric this year with 15, so is far and away its best goal assist player. With her 11 goal assists for the season, she also leads the AFLW, and sits third at the Roos for score involvements. It is for this reason that she is an important asset the Lions will be determined to limit, and it is likely through key back Jennifer Dunne that they will attempt such a task.
Dunne's long boot has been important to Brisbane's rebound game, and she is third at the club for intercepts. Her height and strength can offer a real challenge to Randall, not only in her access to the footy, but the way she can set up those in the blue and white around her. This could be one of the truest key forward v key defender matchups we've seen all year, and may just prove the difference between North Melbourne's ability to kick a winning score v Brisbane's capacity to defend that.
Players to watch
Bella Eddey (North Melbourne) – one of the cleanest players in the League at the fall of the ball, Eddey makes quick decisions and executes with elite skill. She has averaged 12.5 disposals and 3.9 score involvements this season running through both the forward line and midfield, and was particularly dangerous the last time the Roos met Brisbane back in week one, with two goals from nine disposals.
Mia King (North Melbourne) – somewhat forgotten in the context of North Melbourne's midfield dominance this year. With Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner clear stars of the competition, and Ruby Tripodi the exciting emerging role player, it has been through King's relentless work at the contest that they have been able to do such damage. Her high pressure, physical style of play has been crucial, and in last year's Grand Final, she led the field with 13 clearances.
Cathy Svarc (Brisbane) – Svarc has arguably been Brisbane's player of the finals. Her power and capacity to break lines has proven vital in changing momentum of games, and getting things back on the Lions' terms. She can go forward when needed to offer a different look there, and has kicked a career-high eight goals this year, three of which have been across the club's two finals.
Natalie Grider (Brisbane) – Brisbane's vice-captain, Grider was outstanding in last week's preliminary final win over Adelaide. Her dynamic movement across the half back line makes her tough to play on as a forward, and a willingness to get aggressive and press higher up the ground allows her to play a sweeping role at stoppage, and propel the ball forward. She is second at the Lions for intercepts this year, behind only captain Breanna Koenen.
Where it will be won
North Melbourne and Brisbane sit first and second in the competition for average score this year, and are the two best teams at transitioning the ball from the back half to a forward 50 entry. While much of this starts with contested ball, both teams boast dangerous outside runners who work just as hard defensively as they do into attack. The trio of Sophie Conway, Orla O'Dwyer, and Charlie Mullins is the more experienced group, but North Melbourne's wing rotation of Taylah Gatt, Tess Craven, and Amy Smith has proven its worth time and again this year. Whichever wing contingent can come out on top, will have a significant impact on its team's attacking game.
Despite both making outside run a key to their game style, there are some other areas where the teams differ. North Melbourne tends to find a balance between changing lanes when moving down the field, and opting to move more directly, while the Lions really want to switch the footy and avoid that long down the line kick.
They are also the best two sides in the competition this year at converting forward entries into scores, with the Lions marginally outpacing the Roos. This presents a huge challenge for both backlines. North Melbourne's defence has been a brick wall this year, defending high and with layers, they concede just 26.6 inside 50s per game, and only 20 points on the scoreboard. Getting the ball inside 50 against the Roos is the first massive battle, but then converting those entries into scores has been more difficult than ever before in the AFLW. Teams have turned inside 50s into a shot on goal just 29.2 per cent of the time, and goals from just 10.1 per cent of those entries – the lowest in League history. So, we will be treated to the best defence in limiting shot creation, coming up against the best team at converting inside 50s into scores.
The Lions have essentially won their finals this year off the back of their third quarters. They just need to be within striking distance at the main break to still feel confident, so it will be crucial for North Melbourne to do plenty of early damage on the scoreboard.
Notably, the Roos convert more points than any other side from stoppage, while the Lions sit fourth in the metric. Because of this, the midfield battle will be hugely consequential. North Melbourne has some real finesse in its positioning, and actively brings its wings to the contest when needed, while the Lions are able to massage their midfield group as games wear on based on need.
On top of all of this, there is rain, and potential storms forecast for Saturday, which will add another element for coaches and players alike to consider. The Roos have been forced to play in seriously wet conditions for much of the season, and have learned to adapt their game style depending on the weather. The likes of Alice O'Loughlin, Eddey, Wall, Garner, and Riddell have all shown off clean skill in wet weather this year, so are primed come rain, hail, or shine. For Brisbane, the likes of Mullins, Conway, Courtney Hodder, and Belle Dawes can also do some real damage in such conditions, so it still has some real assets at its disposal.
Tip: It's exceptionally difficult to tip against Brisbane in finals, but the Roos' form this year makes them the very slight favourites. North Melbourne by two points.
