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COACHING has always been about maximising strength and hiding vulnerabilities. Obviously it is also about minimising the strengths of the opposition and exploiting their weaknesses.

Every match, coaches tread the delicate balance between stability and change.

The search to find a better way is never-ending, but if change is too common its byproduct is instability, inconsistency and often confusion.

It is extremely rare to play the same opposition in consecutive weeks, so the close-up look of last Saturday's grand final draw allows for a fresh tactical approach in the replay.

As Collingwood dominated the first half and St Kilda was four goals better in the second half, it is probably Mick Malthouse who will be tempted to embrace some change and Ross Lyon who will be more inclined to stay with the set-up that was working.

The Magpies play a high-tempo, high-energy style, which has seen them make explosive starts to their matches.

Four goals last Saturday by midway through the opening term, then only five goals thereafter is a major concern.

With the likelihood of residual fatigue being a significant factor for both teams after such a brutal and bruising first grand final, the high-speed swarm that has been the Collingwood hallmark will be severely tested.

Tiredness might lead to a drop-off in the tackling pressure, which is a great strength of the Magpie game.

Even though the Magpies were dominant in forward-50 entries with a high of 62, they were kicking the ball in long and high, which suited the aerial superiority of the Saints' tall defenders.

Statistically they bombed the ball in 36 times of their 62 entries, which emphasised this long and high forward approach.

Whether it was nerves or St Kilda's pressure, the Collingwood midfield did not run and carry the footy.

In their big preliminary final win, the Magpies had 31 running bounces. Last week they had only 13.

Ball-carriers Dane Swan, Alan Didak and Scott Pendlebury had very low handball receives, and must be given the footy at every opportunity and told to run forward before balancing and kicking.

They have the speed to do this and must risk being run down from behind and lower their eyes to hit up short, sharp leads from their forwards.

The balance of height and marking power compared to speed and crumbing might also need some adjusting.

The Saints' defence and midfield block the leading lanes of the opposition forwards extremely well. So more marking power deep may be required.

Paul Medhurst is strong overhead without the height and maybe Leigh Brown needs to be relieved of ruck duties to work as a permanent forward.

Maybe Josh Fraser in to back-up Darren Jolly would allow the extra tall Collingwood forward to match the aerial power of the Saints' defence.

Finding an answer or an opponent for Brendon Goddard, who is providing the Saints with the ultimate attacking utility, is a problem without an obvious solution.

The possible outs might have to be one or two of the smalls - Leon Davis or Jarryd Blair - or even the medium-sized Brent Macaffer.

The Magpies shouldn't change their game plan or structure too much, but might need a little more forward height and bulk to supplement their run and spread.

St Kilda embarked on significant change at pre-game selection by altering their two-specialist-ruckmen formula by omitting Ben McEvoy.

Trailing at half time, change was instituted with defender Sam Gilbert going forward as an extra tall and Farren Ray taking the Swan tagging role.

Not sure whether the Saints will persist with Gilbert forward, but they look better with an extra tall forward and Stephen Milne playing as a small forward.

The Saints know they cannot allow Collingwood a repeat of 62 forward entries and realistically expect to keep the Magpies below 30 scoring shots, or about a 15-goal score.

The big change to combat the Magpies' fantastic tackling pressure was to kick forward out of congestion, rather than handball to teammates under pressure, and never handball backwards.

The most costly turnovers in footy are the short handballs that allow the opposition to run onto the ball and then into space.

Forward footy became more critical as the game wore on and fatigue set in.

The Saints' second half of 96 kicks and 61 handballs was a good indicator of the determination to kick the footy to avoid handball turnovers.

In the first grand final, I leant towards Collingwood's speed and movement holding out St Kilda's seasoned bodies and strong second halves.

This week, with the residual fatigue created by the first grand final, I would suspect a slower tempo game, which points to a Saints victory.

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.

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