ROUND 16 might just be the one that sees many tipsters come undone. If you’re searching for inspiration when making those line-ball calls, then you’ve come to the right place.

Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Why the Crows win:

• Geelong may have defeated the Crows the last three times the sides have met at AAMI Stadium, but Adelaide holds the overall historical advantage at the venue with 11 wins to five.
  
• In a possible omen for the Crows, they have not lost to a Victorian team at AAMI Stadium in Round 16 since 1998.

Why the Cats win:

• Geelong has dominated Adelaide recently, winning the last five matches between the sides and six of the last seven.
  
• The Cats have come away with the points in each of their most recent five visits to AAMI Stadium, including three wins over the Crows.

The market*: Adelaide $4.10, Geelong $1.32

The Mozz: The Crows have been quietly on the improve over recent weeks and could surprise here, but it’s a brave tipster who doesn’t pick the Cats - best to stick with a proven winner and select Geelong.

Collingwood v St Kilda
Why the Magpies win:

Collingwood has won eight of 10 clashes between these sides played in Round 16. The Magpies have won the last three Saturday afternoon matches between these sides, most recently in Round 14, 2007.

Why the Saints win:

The Saints have dominated the Magpies recently, winning the last four games between the sides and eight of the last 11, including three victories of more than 70 points. No matter their opposition, St Kilda has proved difficult to beat in Round 16 recently, having never lost in this round under Ross Lyon and winning their last eight.

The market*: Collingwood $2.24, St Kilda $1.80

The Mozz: With Nick Riewoldt back in the St Kilda line-up and Travis Cloke out suspended for the Pies, combined with Collingwood’s proven scoring struggles against the Saints, you’d have to think Joffa won’t be getting the gold jacket out this weekend. St Kilda to win.

Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Why the Hawks win:

The Hawks have had the edge over the Lions in recent seasons, winning three of the last four games between the sides. Historically these sides have met 38 times, with Hawthorn holding a 22-16 advantage.

Why the Brisbane Lions win:

Over the last decade, the Lions have defeated the Hawks 11 times from 15 outings. These sides last met at Aurora Stadium in Round 12, 2009, and the Lions posted a comfortable 42-point victory.

The market*: Hawthorn $1.34, $3.80

The Mozz: Hawthorn to continue their recent dominance of the down and out Lions with a win before their “home” crowd in Launceston.

Essendon v West Coast Eagles
Why the Bombers win:

Essendon has won the last two times these sides have clashed at Etihad Stadium, in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Historically these sides have played 41 times, and the Bombers hold the advantage, winning 23 games to 18.

Why the Eagles win:

The Eagles have had the better of the Bombers recently, winning the last three games between the sides and four of the last five. West Coast has already defeated Essendon once in 2010; winning by 23 points in Round 4 at Subiaco, a contest they led by 45 points at three-quarter time.

The market*: Essendon $1.43, West Coast $3.20

The Mozz: Essendon have got their backs to the wall and the Eagles aren’t doing much better. Pick the Bombers to make a statement with a convincing win at home.

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
Why the Bulldogs win:

The Western Bulldogs have dominated Port Adelaide recently, winning the last three matches between the sides and four of the last five. The Bulldogs won the most recent clash between these sides, in Round 12 last year and also at TIO Stadium, by a club-record 93 points.

Why the Power win:

Overall, the Bulldogs and Port Adelaide have met 18 times, and the Power hold the advantage with 11 wins to seven. In the Power’s favour, they may have lost their last three clashes with the Bulldogs, but have never lost four in a row against them.

The market*: Western Bulldogs $1.19, Port Adelaide $5.90

The Mozz: The Bulldogs were well and truly on song last weekend, and while the temperature is bound to rise this round (they are playing in Darwin, after all), expect them to make Matthew Primus’ first outing as Power coach a miserable affair.

Carlton v Sydney Swans
Why the Blues win:

Overall these sides have met 10 times in Round 16, with Carlton winning seven to the Swans’ three. Historically these sides have clashed 213 times, and the Blues hold a clear advantage, with 125 wins to 82 (with six draws).

Why the Sydney Swans win:

Prior to Carlton’s win in Round 16 last season; the Swans had won 12 consecutive matches against the Blues since 2000. The Swans hold the advantage in matches played at Etihad Stadium, winning three of four previous contests with the Blues at the venue.

The market *: Carlton $1.68, Sydney $2.44

The Mozz: If even Juddy doesn’t give his side much of a chance, then why would anyone back the Blues? The Swans were looking pretty good towards the end of last week’s win over North Melbourne, while Carlton looked second-rate at best against the Bulldogs. Pick the Swans.

Richmond v North Melbourne
Why the Tigers win:

Richmond holds the head-to-head advantage over North Melbourne, winning 81 games to 64 (plus two draws). Overall, the Tigers and Kangaroos have clashed four times in Round 16, with Richmond holding the advantage three wins to one.

Why the Kangaroos win:

The Kangaroos have had the better of the Tigers in recent seasons, winning six of the last nine matches between the sides. These teams have clashed 47 times at the MCG, and the Kangaroos hold a narrow advantage at the venue with 24 wins to 21 (with two draws).

The market *: Richmond $1.91, North Melbourne $2.04

The Mozz: Can the Tigers do what was unthinkable four weeks ago and make it five wins on the trot? Or will the Kangaroos send them crashing back to earth? Pick the Kangaroos to continue their recent domination of Richmond and get the win they need to stay in the finals race.

Fremantle v Melbourne
Why Freo win:

Fremantle has dominated contests between these sides at Subiaco Oval, winning seven to Melbourne’s three, including the last five in a row. These sides have met three times previously in Round 16, with Freo having won twice.

Why the Demons win:

The last times these sides met, in Round 20, 2009, Melbourne were comfortable winners to the tune of 63 points. Overall there have been 11 Sunday afternoon clashes played between Freo and the Demons, and Melbourne hold the slimmest advantage in the timeslot, six wins to five.

The market*: Frematle $1.27, Melbourne $4.70

The Mozz: Freo will be desperate to atone for their embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Tigers last Saturday night and should hit back with a bang at home.

* Prices via Betfair as of 2pm AEST, 16 July 2010

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL