JUST one round remains in the 2023 Smithy’s VFL home-and-away season with every spot in the top 10 up for grabs in Round 22.

While only 11 teams can realistically make the top 10, there are still many permutations about where exactly each team will finish and how the Wildcard Round and finals series will look.

Let’s try to unpick it all.

1st, 15-2, 175.0%
STREAK: Won 4
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Sydney Swans (68, SCG); Bye; def Brisbane Lions (18, Heritage Bank Stadium); def GWS Giants  (40, Manuka Oval); Bye; def Frankston (107, Heritage Bank Stadium); lost Essendon (1, Windy Hill)
THIS WEEK: Carlton (10:25am Saturday, Heritage Bank Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 1st unless Werribee wins and makes up the percentage deficit (roughly 63 points); otherwise 2nd.
IF THEY LOSE: 1st if Werribee loses, unless the Tigers make up the percentage deficit (49 points); 2nd if the Tigers win.
SUMMARY: Regained pride of place with their powerful win over Sydney and will all-but ensure their first minor premiership at any level with a victory over Carlton. Two home finals has them in pole position to make their first Grand Final.
PREDICTON: 16-2 (1st)

2nd, 15-2, 168.5%
STREAK: Won 14
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Collingwood (39, Avalon Airport Oval); def North Melbourne (57, Arden Street Oval); def Frankston (44, Avalon Airport Oval); def Northern Bullants (144, Avalon Airport Oval); def Port Melbourne (23, ETU Stadium)
THIS WEEK: Sydney (1:05pm Sunday, Tramway Oval).
IF THEY WIN: 1st if Gold Coast loses or if the Suns win and the Bees make up the percentage deficit (roughly 63 points). Otherwise 2nd.
IF THEY LOSE: 2nd unless Gold Coast also loses and the Bees make up the percentage deficit (49 points). Otherwise 1st.
SUMMARY: Dropped back to second after a dalliance with top spot but can still win their fifth minor premiership and first since 2005 if they deal with Sydney and either make up percentage on Gold Coast or the Suns go down. Either way, it’s two home finals, and the Bees are extremely hard to beat on their home patch if they don’t beat themselves.
PREDICTION: 16-2 (2nd)

3rd, 13-4, 130.7%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Footscray Bulldogs (20; Box Hill City Oval); Bye; def Sandringham (47, Box Hill City Oval); def Richmond (3, Swinburne Centre); def North Melbourne (5, Arden Street Oval); def GWS Giants (14, Giants Stadium)
THIS WEEK: Frankston (7:05pm Friday, Kinetic Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 3rd unless Williamstown wins and makes up the percentage deficit (roughly 140 points), otherwise 4th.
IF THEY LOSE: 3rd if Williamstown and Brisbane Lions both lose; 4th if one wins, 5th if both win. Will fall below the Seagulls if they lose by roughly 139 points more than them.
SUMMARY: Playing first on Friday night, the equation is simple. Win and they will finish third unless Williamstown kicks a cricket score against Sandringham. Given the difference between third and fourth could be an interstate flight, it’s a game they can’t afford to lose. Especially as defeat could even cost them the top-four spot they’ve held all year.
PREDICTION: 14-4 (3rd)

4th, 13-4, 114.5%
STREAK: Won 5
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Brisbane Lions (6, Brighton Homes Arena); def Richmond (22, DSV Stadium); def Casey Demons (1, Casey Fields); def Essendon (6, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Southport Sharks (10, DSV Stadium)
THIS WEEK: Sandringham (2:05pm Sunday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval).
IF THEY WIN: 3rd if Box Hill loses or if the Hawks win and the Seagulls make up the percentage deficit (roughly 140 points). Otherwise 4th.
IF THEY LOSE: 3rd if Box Hill loses and the Seagulls make up the percentage deficit (139 points) and Brisbane Lions lose. 4th if one happens, 5th if neither do.
SUMMARY: Five wins on the trot, including away wins to premiership contenders Brisbane Lions and Casey Demons have put the Seagulls in the top-four heading into the final round. A double chance in the finals is all theirs if they defeat Sandringham this week. On paper they will start favourites, although the Zebras have caused them plenty of headaches in recent times.
PREDICTION: 14-4 (4th)

5th, 12-4-1, 156.1%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Williamstown (6, Brighton Homes Arena); Bye; lost Gold Coast Suns (18, Heritage Bank Stadium); def Geelong (35, Brighton Homes Arena); Bye; def Northern Bullants (128, Genis Steel Oval); lost Richmond (1, Brighton Homes Arena).
THIS WEEK: Casey Demons (12:05pm Sunday, Casey Fields).
IF THEY WIN: 3rd if Box Hill and Williamstown lose; 4th if one wins, 5th if both win.
IF THEY LOSE: 5th.
SUMMARY: Another narrow home defeat saw the Lions drop out of the top-four for the first time this season and they now need to win and rely on another result going their way to get it back. Look destined to host an elimination final in a fortnight.
PREDICTION: 12-5-1 (5th)

6th, 11-6, 130.1%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Carlton (8, IKON Park); Bye; lost Williamstown (1, Casey Fields); def Coburg (42, Piranha Park); Bye; def Sandringham (34, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def GWS Giants (96, Casey Fields)
THIS WEEK: Brisbane Lions (12:05pm Sunday, Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN: 6th unless Footscray wins and makes up the percentage deficit (roughly 68 points). 7th if the Bulldogs achieve that.
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Footscray loses, unless the Bulldogs make up the percentage deficit (roughly a 50-point closer loss), otherwise 7th. 7th if the Bulldogs win.
SUMMARY: Two narrow losses have put their top four hopes on ice and left their chances of a home elimination final in jeopardy. With Footscray playing on Saturday, they will know exactly what they need to do against the Lions to stay in the top six.
PREDICTION: 12-6 (6th)

7th, 11-6, 124.9%
STREAK: Won 9
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Box Hill Hawks (20, Box Hill City Oval); def North Melbourne (66, ETU Stadium); Bye; def Northern Bullants (157, Genis Steel Oval); def Sydney Swans (62, Tramway Oval); def Collingwood (20, Avalon Airport Oval).
THIS WEEK: Port Melbourne (11:05am Saturday, DSV Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Casey loses or if the Demons win and the Bulldogs make up the percentage deficit (roughly 68 points). Otherwise 7th.
IF THEY LOSE: 7th if Carlton, Collingwood and North Melbourne all lose, or if they win and none of them make up the percentage deficits (Blues roughly 74 points, Magpies 105 points, Kangaroos 159 points). 8th if one does, 9th if two do, 10th if all three do.
SUMMARY: A nine-match winning streak, with the last one being the most impressive of the lot. They will be confident of hitting the finals on a double-figure tear, and can pinch a spot in the top six if the Demons lose. Third best team in the competition right now.
PREDICTION: 12-6 (7th)

8th, 10-7, 118.1%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Casey Demons (8, IKON Park); Bye; lost Collingwood (28, Victoria Park); def Port Melbourne (36, IKON Park); Bye; def Coburg (52, Piranha Park); def Northern Bullants (85, IKONPark).
THIS WEEK: Gold Coast Suns (10:25am Saturday, Heritage Bank Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Casey (roughly 134 points) and Footscray (74 points) lose and the Blues make up the percentage deficits listed; 7th if one happens, 8th if neither happen. 10th if Collingwood (34 points) and North Melbourne (88 points) win and make up their percentage deficits, 9th if one happens, 8th if neither happen.
IF THEY LOSE: 9th if Collingwood loses and doesn’t make up the percentage deficit (roughly 19 points); otherwise 10th. 11th if North Melbourne also loses and makes up the percentage deficit (69-point closer loss than the Blues).
SUMMARY: Seven wins in their past nine games have locked the Blues into finals action for the second straight year and the victory over Casey was a gamechanger given the Round 22 assignment. Beat the Suns and they should seal a home Wildcard final with an outside chance of a top six berth. Lose and its five trips in a row to take the flag.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (10th)

9th, 10-7, 115.9%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong Cats (74, Victoria Park); lost Werribee (39, Avalon Airport Oval); def Carlton (28, Victoria Park); def Sandringham (16, AIA Centre); Bye; lost Footscray (20, Avalon Airport Oval).
THIS WEEK: Southport (12:05pm Saturday, AIA Vitality Centre).
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Casey (roughly 163 points), Footscray (114 points) and Carlton lose and the Magpies make up percentage deficits to the Demons and Bulldogs. 7th if one of those win, 8th if two win, 9th if three win. Will pass Carlton if the Blues win but the Magpies make up the percentage (36 points). 10th if North Melbourne wins and makes up the percentage (54 points).
IF THEY LOSE: 9th if Carlton loses and the Magpies make up the percentage deficit (roughly 19 points), otherwise 10th. 11th if North Melbourne also loses but makes up the percentage deficit (54 points).
SUMMARY: A thumping win over Geelong means the Magpies can’t miss the finals unless they lose to Southport by roughly nine goals more than North Melbourne loses to Richmond, which would put both the Roos and Tigers ahead of them. GWS Giants is still mathematically there but requires a series of cricket scores to be a chance.
PREDICTION: 11-7 (8th)

10th, 10-7, 111.6%
STREAK: Lost 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Footscray Bulldogs (66, ETU Stadium); lost Werribee (57, Arden Street Oval); Bye; lost Box Hill Hawks 5 (Arden Street Oval); def Geelong Cats (43, GMHBA Stadium); def Williamstown (53, Arden Street Oval)
THIS WEEK: Richmond (12.00pm Sunday, Swinburne Centre)
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Casey (roughly 207 points), Footscray (157 points), Carlton and Collingwood all lose and the Kangaroos can make up the percentage deficits listed to the Demons and Bulldogs. 7th if one wins, 8th if two win, 9th if three win, 10th if all four win. If the Demons and/or Bulldogs win they can’t catch them. If Carlton (85 points) and/or Collingwood (45 points) win, the Roos need to also win and make up the deficits listed.
IF THEY LOSE: 9th if Carlton (roughly 68 points) and Collingwood (54 points) lose and the Kangaroos make up the percentage deficits. 10th if one of those occurs. Otherwise 11th.
SUMMARY: After being in the top six, they lost form badly between their two byes and now find themselves needing to win just to stay in the top 10. Win and they are guaranteed to make it, with percentage possibly then deciding where they finish. Their advantage is they will know exactly what they need to do given Carlton and Collingwood both play on Saturday.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (11th)

11th, 9-7-1, 98.1%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Port Melbourne (21, Swinburne Centre); lost Williamstown (22, DSV Stadium); Bye; lost Box Hill Hawks (3, Swinburne Centre); def Southport Sharks (13, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Sydney Swans (21, Swinburne Centre)
THIS WEEK: North Melbourne (12.00pm Sunday, Swinburne Centre).
IF THEY WIN: 8th if Carlton and Collingwood both lose; 9th if one wins, 10th if both win
IF THEY LOSE: 11th if GWS loses, 12th if the Giants win
SUMMARY: It’s simple. Win and you’re in. An elimination final comes early with the victor of the Tigers and Kangaroos to play finals and the loser to miss out. The Blues and Magpies both play Saturday, meaning these teams will also know if a win can secure them a home Wildcard final.
PREDICTION: 10-7-1 (9th)

12th, 9-8, 87.9%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Northern Bullants (76, Genis Steel Oval); lost Sydney Swans (78, Blacktown International Sports Park); Bye; lost Gold Coast Suns (40, Manuka Oval); def Frankston (1, Kinetic Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (14, Giants Stadium).
THIS WEEK: Geelong (11:05am Saturday, GMHBA Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: Would need point differentials of 300 points or more to jump any of Carlton, Collingwood and North Melbourne. 11th if Richmond loses
IF THEY LOSE: 12th if Southport loses, 13th if the Sharks win.
SUMMARY: Mathematically a chance to finish in the top 10 but realistically it just won’t happen with their terrible percentage. Can complete the AFL/VFL double at the Cattery, which will bring motivation in itself.
PREDICTION: 9-9 (12th)

13th, 8-9, 112.5%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Essendon (8, Fankhauser Reserve); def Frankston (14, Kinetic Stadium); Bye; lost Richmond (13, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Williamstown (10, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Coburg (40, Fankhauser Reserve)
THIS WEEK: Collingwood (12:05pm Saturday, AIA Centre).
IF THEY WIN: 12th if GWS loses, 13th if the Giants win.
IF THEY LOSE: 13th if Geelong loses; 14th if the Cats win
SUMMARY: Saw their season evaporate last week without even getting on the park. But will celebrate four milestones this week (100 NEAFL/VFL games for Jacob Dawson, 50 club games for Dawson, Jesse Joyce and Brayden Crossley) and will have plenty of motivation. But so do the Magpies.
PREDICTION: 8-10 (14th)

14th, 7-9-1, 78.5%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Collingwood (74, Victoria Park); Bye; def Northern Bullants (90, GMHBA Stadium); lost Brisbane Lions (35, Brighton Homes Arena); lost Essendon (10, GMHBA Stadium); lost North Melbourne (43, GMHBA Stadium).
THIS WEEK: GWS Giants (11:05am Saturday, GMHBA Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 13th if Southport loses; 14th if the Sharks win.
IF THEY LOSE: 14th
SUMMARY: A similar result to last year, but still something to play for with the chance to officially end GWS’s hopes of a miracle.
PREDICTION: 8-9-1 (13th)

15th, 6-11, 87.9%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Richmond (21, Swinburne Centre); Bye; def Coburg (10, ETU Stadium); lost Carlton (36, IKON Park); Bye; lost Werribee (23, ETU Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (23, Box Hill City Oval).
THIS WEEK: Footscray Bulldogs (11:05am, DSV Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 15th
IF THEY LOSE: 15th
SUMMARY: Locked into 15th spot, but would love to break Footscray’s winning streak and end its top six charge.
PREDICTION: 6-12 (15th)

16th, 4-12-1, 84.5%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Northern Bullants (99, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost Box Hill Hawks (47, Box Hill City Oval); lost Collingwood (16, AIA Centre); Bye; lost Casey Demons (34, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost Werribee (76, Avalon Airport Oval).
THIS WEEK: Williamstown (2:05pm Sunday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval).
IF THEY WIN: 16th
IF THEY LOSE: 16th if none of Essendon, Sydney or Frankston win; 17th if one wins, 18th if two win, 19th if they all do.
SUMMARY: Would love to finish with back-to-back wins and tip Williamstown out of the top four. Given their recent record head-to-head, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
PREDICTION: 4-13-1 (17th)

17th, 4-13, 79.7%
STREAK: Lost 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Southport Sharks (8, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Sydney Swans (82, Windy Hill); lost Williamstown (6, DSV Stadium); def Geelong Cats (10, GMHBA Stadium); Bye; def Gold Coast Suns (1, Windy Hill).
THIS WEEK: Coburg (4:05pm Saturday, DSV Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 16th if Sandringham loses and Sydney or Frankston don’t win and make up their percentage deficits. 17th if one of those happens, 18th if two happen.
IF THEY LOSE: 17th if Sydney and Frankston lose and don’t make up percentage; 18th if one wins or catches up, 19th if both do.
SUMMARY: Been competitive most weeks without winning and will be confident of picking up a fifth victory despite losing their home ground advantage due to a wish to play on Saturday.
PREDICTION: 5-13 (16th)

18th, 4-13, 75.9%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Gold Coast Suns (68, SCG); def GWS Giants (78, Blacktown International Sports Park); def Essendon (82, Windy Hill); Bye; lost Footscray Bulldogs (62, Tramway Oval); def Richmond (21, Swinburne Centre).
THIS WEEK: Werribee (1:05pm Sunday, Tramway Oval).
IF THEY WIN: 16th if Sandringham and Essendon lose; 17th if one wins, 18th if both win. Could also climb one spot if they match the Bombers’ result and make up 3.8%, but could also drop if Frankston wins and makes up 4.3%.
IF THEY LOSE: 17th if they make up the 3.8% deficit to Essendon, 18th if they don’t. 19th if Frankston wins or loses by significantly less to make up 4.3%.
SUMMARY: Crashed back to earth against the Suns and face another daunting task to finish against the other premiership favourites.
PREDICTION: 4-14 (18th)

19th, 4-13, 71.6%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Coburg (36, Piranha Park); Bye; lost Southport Sharks (14, Kinetic Stadium); lost Werribee (44, Avalon Airport Oval); lost GWS Giants (1, Kinetic Stadium); lost Gold Coast Suns (107, Heritage Bank Stadium)
THIS WEEK: Box Hill Hawks (7:05pm Friday, Kinetic Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 16th if Sandringham, Essendon and Sydney all lose; 17th if one wins, 18th if two win, 19th if all three win. They could also climb positions if they can match the Bombers’ and Swans’ result and make up percentage.
IF THEY LOSE: 19th
SUMMARY: Broke a 17-year drought at Piranha Park and a nine-match losing streak last week. Can they tip the Hawks out of the top four?
PREDICTION: 4-14 (19th)

20th, 2-16, 40.4%
STREAK: Lost 11
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost GWS Giants (76, Genis Steel Oval); lost Sandringham (99, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost Geelong Cats (90, GMHBA Stadium); lost Footscray Bulldogs (157, Genis Steel Oval); lost Werribee (144, Avalon Airport Oval)
THIS WEEK: Bye.
SUMMARY: The Bullants have finished 20th.
PREDICTION: 2-16 (20th)

21st, 0-17, 54.1%
STREAK: Lost 17
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Frankston (36, Piranha Park); Bye; lost Port Melbourne (10, ETU Stadium); lost Casey Demons (42, Piranha Park); Bye; lost Carlton (52, Piranha Park); lost Footscray Bulldogs (32, DSV Stadium)
THIS WEEK: Essendon (4.05pm Saturday, DSV Stadium).
IF THEY WIN: 21st
IF THEY LOSE: 21st
SUMMARY: The Lions will finish in bottom place irrespective of Saturday's result against the Bombers.
PREDICTION: 0-18 (21st)