SUMMARY
If Hawthorn's trend of bouncing back after a loss continues, the Demons should be worried. Inconsistency has cost the Hawks (3-3) so far this season, although they have twice responded to defeat by ruthlessly smashing the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne. Hawthorn's upset loss to Greater Western Sydney last weekend – the reigning premier's first against an expansion club – should give Melbourne hope of being competitive. The Dees (2-4) showed some fight after an abject first half against the Sydney Swans and will need a full four-quarter effort to avoid their 12th-straight loss to the Hawks.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday, May 16, 2.10pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R20, 2014, Hawthorn 17.13 (115) d Melbourne 9.11 (65) at the MCG
R10, 2013, Hawthorn 21.17 (143) d Melbourne 6.12 (48) at the MCG
R7, 2012, Hawthorn 15.25 (115) d Melbourne 6.13 (49) at the MCG
R18, 2011, Hawthorn 20.12 (132) d Melbourne 12.6 (78) at the MCG
R2, 2011, Hawthorn 16.26 (122) d Melbourne 12.5 (77) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. Hawthorn has taken the most marks inside 50 this season with 88 at 14.7 per game, compared to the Demons, who are ranked last with 45 at 7.5 per game.
2. Hawthorn has dominated Melbourne over a long period, winning the past 11 contests, and the past four by an average margin of 66 points. The Demons' last win came in round eight, 2006.
3. The Hawks continue to be the number one kicking team in 2015, ranked first for kicks with 232 per game while the Demons are 16th at 190.7 per game.
4. Hawthorn has won 13 of its past 14 matches at the MCG. This will be the 78th meeting between these sides at the MCG, with Hawthorn winning 42 games to the Demons 35.
5. Melbourne continues to struggle to take the ball inside 50 in 2015, ranked 18th with an average of only 40.2 per game. Hawthorn is ranked first with 62.3 per game.
6. Tom McDonald's superb start to 2015 has been reflected in the Official AFL Player Ratings, with the Demons defender rising from the fifth-highest ranked player at his club to second behind Nathan Jones.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Jarryd Roughead. With Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis out of the side, the acting skipper faces a big test against a quality defender in McDonald. Roughead has been below his best this season, only booting more than three goals in a game once (seven v Western Bulldogs).
PREDICTION: Hawthorn by 57 points
