SYDNEY has lost one of the game's greatest ever forwards, but the ensuing three weeks has shown it's far from doom and gloom in the post-Lance Franklin era.
Wins against Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast and Adelaide have vaulted the Swans into the finals picture and they've done it on the back of an equal-opportunity forward mix that is reaping dividends.
By most metrics – and it's an extremely small sample size at this stage – the signs are promising for John Longmire's post-Buddy forward line.
In the past three weeks, Sydney has scored more heavily, defended better inside its forward 50 and targeted a range of players that are all having greater impact.
AFL.com.au asked Champion Data to run the numbers on rounds 1-20 with and without Franklin in the side as well as rounds 21-23, since his retirement.
While the numbers in the six games Franklin missed during the season do tell a story, they are heavily skewed by the Swans' record-breaking 205-point performance against West Coast in round 15. It's for this reason that we've narrowed our focus to a comparison between the 13 games Franklin played during the year and the past three weeks.
|
R1-20 w Franklin |
R1-20 wo Franklin |
R21-23 |
Points For |
84.1 |
102.8 |
94.7 |
Score per Inside 50 % |
44% |
50% |
40% |
Oppo D50 to Score % |
7% |
5% |
5% |
F50 Tackles |
9.6 |
12.8 |
14.0 |
F50 Groundball Gets Diff |
-3 |
-1 |
+1 |
So, what's happened since the greatest forward of the modern era hung up the boots?
Sydney has scored 94 points a game since Franklin retired, despite being stuck in the mud in the final term against Adelaide last Saturday night. That's up from 84 a game when Buddy was in the side this season.
Hayden McLean has kicked eight goals in three matches, compared to 11 in his previous 17. His Player Rating has jumped from less than 10 to 17.4.
Will Hayward has also taken a leap, kicking six goals and assisting four others in a return to the 2022 form that had eluded him for large chunks of the season.
Isaac Heeney, Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey have also bumped up their Player Ratings in the past three weeks.
Player Ratings |
R1-20 w Franklin |
R1-20 wo Franklin |
R21-23 |
Isaac Heeney |
12.0 |
13.5 |
14.0 |
Will Hayward |
6.6 |
6.8 |
11.1 |
Logan McDonald |
6.6 |
11.3 |
8.8 |
Joal Amartey |
4.9 |
7.6 |
7.0 |
Hayden McLean |
9.6 |
3.9 |
17.4 |
Unsurprisingly, when Franklin was in the line-up, he was targeted almost three times more than any other player. It makes sense; if you're a midfielder and the big No.23 is charging towards you with his arms out, that's where you're kicking it.
In his absence, there's been an almost perfect split of forward 50 targets, with McDonald and Hayward the biggest beneficiaries.
R1-20 w Franklin |
Inside 50 Targets |
Lance Franklin |
107 |
Tom Papley |
38 |
Will Hayward |
35 |
Logan McDonald |
32 |
Isaac Heeney |
30 |
R1-20 wo Franklin |
Inside 50 Targets |
Logan McDonald |
31 |
Tom Papley |
31 |
Hayden McLean |
27 |
Joel Amartey |
25 |
Isaac Heeney |
24 |
R21-23 |
Inside 50 Targets |
Logan McDonald |
12 |
Will Hayward |
11 |
Joel Amartey |
8 |
Isaac Heeney |
8 |
Hayden McLean |
6 |
The defensive numbers are also interesting.
Opponents have transitioned the ball from their defensive 50 to a score less frequently in the past three weeks. The number has dropped from seven per cent to five per cent, which equates to about one score per match. It doesn't sound like much, but when you win a game by a point like last week against the Crows, it can be a huge difference.
Forward 50 tackles have also jumped markedly from 9.6 to 14 in the past three weeks.
It's worth acknowledging the absence of Franklin is not the only thing that has changed at the Swans in recent weeks. In addition to getting a host of experienced players back in the second half of the season, their defensive numbers have also lifted while the likes of Tom McCartin, Tom Papley and Chad Warner have enjoyed their best run of form of the year.
The forward-line figures don't necessarily prove Sydney is a better forward line without Franklin. They simply show there's another way to generate scores when one of the game's greats is no longer part of the mix.
It'll give the Swans optimism that life after their legendary spearhead could be a bright one.