Not after six rounds, not in a mid-year eight-week stretch, not pre- orpost-bye weekend, certainly not after a shock result – the full 22matches need to be played by all 18 clubs before accurate assessmentscan be made.
With 12 teams still alive in the premiership race, and no clubdeliberately structuring its team in order to qualify for a compensationdraft pick, the final three rounds promise to contain many surprises.
When we were first made aware of Sam Mitchell's injury, or Josh Gibson'storn pec, or Alastair Clarkson's absence for five matches with illness,or Cyril Rioli's pinged hamstring, most of us dismissed Hawthorn'spremiership credentials. After round 20, it sits atop the ladder.
The Sydney Swans lost three of their first four, and Buddy Franklin wasnot just crashing into parked cars but also, in the belief of many, theSwans' culture generally, and Daniel Hannebery specifically.
It too, was no longer a premiership hope. Right now, you'll see itsitting below Hawthorn on the ladder by just a few percentage points.
West Coast was a premiership hope and a virtual given for the top fourwhen it opened the season with a combined 183-point winning margin fromits first three games. Then it lost the next seven of eight, meaningAdam Simpson was a poor choice as coach.
But with three wins from the past four games, the Eagles are now theteam which could do some damage in September if they make it. AndSimpson was an inspired choice to replace Woosha after all.
The flag was well within North Melbourne's reach on the early July nightit beat Hawthorn. That victory was the club's fourth against teams thenplaced in the top four on the ladder.
Yet only the week before, after a bad loss to the Brisbane Lions, theRoos lacked substance, as they did when they lost to Carlton in round18.
They are on track to finish sixth on entering September. A win in anelimination final will be a pass mark for the year, whereas a loss willbe a fail. Of course it is not that simple, but that is how the resultwill be viewed.
Some wrote off Collingwood after Fremantle stitched it up by 70 pointsin the first game. Some are writing it off again after six losses fromthe past eight games. But there was nothing but top-four possibilitiesbetween rounds four and 12, when the Pies won seven of eight.
Injuries to gun players and a key retirement have seriously hurt, butthey're still alive. Defeat the Lions and GWS in the next weeks andjudge them then, because they will have made the finals.
After 11 games, Port Adelaide was 10-1 and a second AFL premiership washeading its way. But in the eight matches since, the form line is thesame as Collingwood's in that same stretch, 2-6. Yet it showed signs of are-emergence against the Swans last week and it could still finish topfour. Again, let's wait until it's all done.
Port was tipped for the flag before poor form struck. Picture: AFL Media
Fremantle's eight consecutive wins up to round 18 saw it considered acertainty to make a second straight Grand Final. But then it lost to StKilda. St Kilda! Ha! Goodbye Grand Final.
Then on the weekend it failed to beat the Cats at Simonds Stadium onlywhen David Mundy's after-the-siren kick missed by a few centimetres. Sothe premiership dream is clearly alive again, eh?
Geelong was gone when it lost to the Sydney Swans by 110 points in round11. And then definitely gone three weeks later when Gold Coast beat itby 40 points. But we all now look at the fact it is equal on 15 winswith Hawthorn and Sydney, and has won eight of the past nine. And giventhe Dockers can again win the flag, surely the Cats can too.
After a 7-2 start to the year, Gold Coast was being congratulated onmaking its first finals series. It was a confirmed finalist the day theSuns' young guns covered for their injured captain, and other injuredteammates, and held on for a gutsy five-point win against Collingwood inround 16.
That effort in the second half of that match was proof Gary Ablett wouldbe covered. But weren't we wrong on that? Three losses in the next fourgames, with three tough games to come, have put the finals out ofreach. Hasn't it?
Adelaide was a lost cause by April 5 when it lost its third match toopen the season. But when it beat Collingwood for a second time in lateJuly, it was a premiership smoky. Then, just a week later, again a lostcause when it was beaten at home by West Coast.
Essendon's six wins from eight matches from rounds 11-18 had us allbelieving it could cause some damage in September. But losses since tothe Swans and Richmond have us wondering if, indeed, it is good enoughto qualify.
Then there's Richmond. A 3-10 form line now reads 9-10.
The Tigers are enjoying their stunning form turnaround after a shaky start to the year. Picture: AFL Media
Carlton was gone, so too the coach, after four losses to start the year,and then another five losses in a row in rounds 11-15. But a closerlook reveals that four matches have been lost by eight points or less,including to Geelong and Fremantle. In reality, Malthouse is arguablycoaching as well as any stage of his 30 years in the caper.
The Lions were Fitzroy reincarnated until the bye. Now, there's hope.Before last weekend's thrashing by Adelaide, they had gallantlyscrounged five wins in a nine-game stretch, including a victory againstNorth Melbourne.
The Western Bulldogs have regularly battled, but they have registeredseven wins and will probably get one more before the year is done. Eightwins is a pass.
GWS has been at times embarrassing, but losing margins are no longer asregularly heavy. Melbourne under Paul Roos has occasionally looked likeMelbourne under Mark Neeld. But wins against Adelaide, Essendon,Richmond and Carlton are proof that there is something for the future.
St Kilda was always going to struggle, and while it won't win again,victories against Fremantle and Essendon will continue to be savoured.
We all do it – make judgments based on a single match or moment. We let emotion and passion override considered analysis.
And we're almost certain to do it again as we attempt to forecast thenext three rounds, despite knowing that inevitably there will beoutcomes which not only loom as unlikely right now, but which willultimately shape the 2014 premiership battle.
