THERE'S no official priority draft selection coming Carlton's way at the end of this season.

But that doesn't mean that a high-end compensatory pick won't end up in the Blues' control.

Just as Melbourne conjured national draft pick No.3, which was added to its already established pick No.2, when James Frawley exited as a free agent at the end of 2014, Carlton has the scope to use Marc Murphy as leverage in an attempt to get consecutive early picks, potentially picks one and two, in this year's draft.

While the AFL will tell us there is a formula applied to the compensation granted a club for loss of a free agent, the clubs know the formula is whatever the AFL wants it to be at that given point in time. 

The AFL's own free agency rules state that compensation is calculated after factoring in the new contract as well as the age of the free agent.

But, here's where the clubs' cynicism comes into play, with this wiggle-room, overriding, catch-all paragraph added to the official compensation rules:

"In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to the AFL general counsel where the formula produces a materially anomalous result."

This is the 'secret herbs and spices' component of the free agency compensation formula which Carlton will need to embrace if it and Murphy decide to end their 13-year association.

In 2014, Melbourne was told it wasn't getting a priority pick, but was extraordinarily able to receive No.3 pick compensation for losing Frawley to Hawthorn.

Pick two in that 2014 draft was used on Christian Petracca, pick three on Angus Brayshaw. Both players now loom as crucial to Melbourne's premiership push four seasons later.

Lance Franklin and James Frawley do battle for their second clubs in 2015. Picture: AFL Photos 

Carlton, cleverly, has publicly stated it doesn't want a priority pick, which is also determined by a wiggle-room AFL formula. Official rules state: "… the provision of special assistance is ultimately a matter for the commission's discretion and will be awarded only in exceptional circumstances. The decision will be based on a club's on-field performance in recent years and any other matter the commission regards as relevant."

Someone of high rank at the Blues, be it chief executive Cain Liddle, president Mark LoGiudice or a board member, was obliged to privately sound out the AFL on the club's prospects of being granted a priority selection. 

There would have been nothing worse than to not ask the question, only to subsequently be told by the AFL that such a pick would have been provided if it had been requested. If you don't ask, you don't know.

The flexibility in the AFL player movement and free agency system has seen Hawthorn receive draft pick No.19 for losing one of the all-time greats in Lance Franklin to Sydney at the end of 2013.

Geelong received the same pick - 19 - when Steven Motlop took his free agency to Port Adelaide last year. 

Steven Motlop and Lance Franklin earned the same free agency compensation. Picture: AFL Photos

Some other random compensation rewards have seen pick 25 go to Fremantle for Chris Mayne, pick 23 head to Melbourne for Col Sylvia, pick 13 and pick 25 to St Kilda respectively for Brendon Goddard and Nick Dal Santo.

Geelong received two first-round picks for losing Gary Ablett to expansion team Gold Coast at the end of 2010, but only received the second pick when it convincingly argued to the AFL that one wasn't enough.

And the Cats last year then, to many raised eyebrows, used the pick 19 gained from the Motlop movement to Port Adelaide as part of the transactioning required to get Ablett back to Geelong from Gold Coast. 

Incredibly, the Blues are now the least successful Victorian club this century. Since the start of the 2000 season, a year after the club had made the Grand Final and a year in which it was to make a preliminary final, Carlton has played 417 matches for just 157 wins (37.65%).

In the same period, Melbourne has played 415 games for 158 wins (38.07%). 

Murphy was the No.1 overall draft pick in the 2005 national draft when the Blues were given that selection as a priority by the AFL. In the same year, Collingwood and Hawthorn also got AFL-delivered priority picks and used them respectively on Dale Thomas and Xavier Ellis. 

Murphy is considering his options for 2019 and beyond, and may choose to stay.

'HE'S REALLY VALUED' Bolton adamant Murphy's a required Blue

But if he seeks a new home, the Blues must seek to manipulate the system as others have done before them.

Until the AFL bans all compensation for loss of free agents, and while it adheres to wiggle-room formula, the entire free agency is open to manipulation. 

With a creative pitch and persuasive behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, Carlton this year can tap into the AFL's magic formula for compensation.

It needs to sell, hard, the fact Murphy has been captain for six seasons, that he's a two-time best-and-fairest winner (as well as four-time runner-up), and an All Australian. It needs to ensure that a prospective new club heavily front-loads his new contract. 

And Liddle should also ask his Melbourne counterpart Peter Jackson, who right now is busy positioning the Demons for a crack at the 2018 premiership, for advice on how he managed to pull off the AFL-endorsed heist of securing pick three for Frawley in 2014.

Twitter: @barrettdamian

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