SUMMARY
Crunch time has arrived early for Essendon and Melbourne. One of these two much-hyped sides will have a 2-4 record by the end of Sunday's match – and it's a long way back from there. They've had a series of close matches in recent years, and the Bombers led at half-time in their most recent clash in round six last year before Joe Daniher's one goal from seven scoring shots came back to haunt them. A year on and Daniher's ascension to stardom has hit a road block, so he will have plenty of motivation against the Demons. Oscar McDonald, who has been in good form for the past fortnight, looms as the big Don's opponent. The short turnaround for both teams means we will likely see multiple changes, but the midfield battle – as usual – is where this will be won. Tom Bellchambers' ability to dull Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn's influence will go a long way to deciding it.
WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Sunday, April 29, 1.10pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R6, 2017: Melbourne 17.10 (112) d Essendon 10.14 (74) at Etihad Stadium
R2, 2016: Essendon 11.14 (80) d Melbourne 10.7 (67) at the MCG
R15, 2015: Essendon 10.9 (69) d Melbourne 7.18 (60) at the MCG
R13, 2014: Melbourne 12.6 (78) d Essendon 10.17 (77) at the MCG
R2, 2013: Essendon 28.16 (184) d Melbourne 5.6 (36) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. Melbourne set up its win over Essendon in 2017 in the third quarter, kicking eight goals to two, with Jack Watts and Christian Petracca booting four goals each. Nathan Jones and Jordan Lewis each had 30 disposals.
2. The Demons have lost by a combined 113 points in the past two weeks, conceding 33 goals to just 14. It's the second half where the damage was done, leaking 21 goals to seven.
3. The Bombers hold a narrow advantage over Melbourne recently, winning three of the last five matches. Three of the last four games were decided by 13 points or fewer.
4. A big possible advantage for the Demons could in the clearances, where they rank third with an average of 40 per game, a long way ahead of Essendon in second-last with only 33.6.
5. This is a rare Etihad Stadium contest between the sides – just the sixth – with Essendon leading three games to two played there. Melbourne has won three of its last four matches at the venue.
6. Joe Daniher's slow start is reflected in the Schick AFL Player Ratings, where he has slumped 13 places since the year started to No.85. Melbourne spearhead Jesse Hogan, on the other hand, has climbed 28 spots to No.247 after his difficult 2017 campaign.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
As already explained, Joe Daniher's 1.6 tally in the corresponding match last year – which doesn't even include two shots that went out on the full – blew the Bombers' winning chances that day. The critics are circling the 2017 All Australian, so this showdown may be the perfect storm for him.
PREDICTION: Melbourne by 11 points
