Essendon vs. Collingwood
Why the Bombers win:
- The Bombers have won their last five matches against the Magpies in this round, dating all the way back to 1998.
Why the Magpies win:
- Collingwood thrashed Essendon earlier this season on Anzac Day at the MCG. The Pies kicked seven goals to the Bombers’ three behinds in the opening quarter and went on to win by 65 points.
The market*: Essendon $7.60, Collingwood $1.14
The Mozz: The Bombers may have won their past five round 20 encounters against the Magpies, but that won’t be enough to stop Mick’s men inflicting a mauling much worse than the one we saw on Anzac Day. Collingwood to win easily.
Carlton vs. Richmond
Why the Blues win:
- Carlton was too strong for Richmond in round one this season at the MCG, posting a comfortable 65-point victory. That win took their winning streak over the Tigers to four consecutive matches.
Why the Tigers win:
- Richmond holds the advantage over Carlton in matches played at the MCG, with 36 wins to the Blues’ 28.
The market*: Carlton $1.36, Richmond $3.65
The Mozz: The Blues were back in town last weekend while the young Tigers are starting to look weary. Carlton will continue its winning form against the yellow and black and further strengthen its claim for a spot in the final eight.
Fremantle vs. Sydney Swans
Why Freo win:
- Fremantle has dominated the Swans at Subiaco Oval, winning five of six games played at the venue.
Why the Swans win:
- The Swans have not lost three in a row to Fremantle since 1996-1997, so long ago current coach Paul Roos was still a player!
The market*: Fremantle $1.65, Sydney Swans $2.50
The Mozz: The round 19 performances of these two sides could not be more different - Freo capitulated against the Kangaroos away from home last weekend while the Swans romped it in over the Hawks at home. It’s almost hard to tip Fremantle, but their hold over the Swans at Subiaco Oval has been so dominant you’ve got to stick with them.
Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong
Why the Bulldogs win:
- The last time these sides met at Etihad Stadium, the Western Bulldogs came away with the points, winning by 14 in round 21, 2009.
Why the Cats win:
- Geelong won twice from three meetings between these clubs last season, continuing their impressive recent run against the Bulldogs, having won five of the last six encounters.
The market*: Western Bulldogs $2.56, Geelong Cats $1.60
The Mozz: The Bulldogs camp has been plagued by illness all week and the Cats have been under the microscope big time since their loss to new flag favourites Collingwood. Expect Geelong to do what it does best and claw its way back to top-dog status with a convincing win.
Port Adelaide vs. West Coast Eagles
Why the Power win:
- Port Adelaide has dominated West Coast at AAMI Stadium, with eight wins from nine matches.
Why the Eagles win:
- West Coast has won four of its last five matches in round 20, including two victories by more than 10 goals.
The market*: Port Adelaide $1.40, West Coast Eagles $3.40
The Mozz: The Power were abysmal last week but the Eagles are limping towards the wooden spoon, so you’d have to say Port.
Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows
Why the Lions win:
- The Lions hold a clear advantage over Adelaide at the Gabba, with 10 wins to the Crows’ six. In fact, they’ve won the last two and six of the last eight, including a club record 141-point win back in 2004.
Why the Crows win:
- Adelaide defeated the Brisbane Lions earlier this season, winning by 12 points in round nine at AAMI Stadium.
The market*: Brisbane Lions $2.00, Adelaide Crows $1.91
The Mozz: Another match with very little bearing on the make-up of the final eight, but it should be interesting to see if the Lions can string two wins in a row together for the first time since their four-game streak that opened the season. Given the game is at the Gabba, it’s probably a safer bet to go with the home side.
Hawthorn vs. Melbourne
Why the Hawks win:
- Hawthorn thrashed Melbourne in round one this season at the MCG, winning by 56 points. The Hawks had the match wrapped up by half time, kicking 10 goals to the Demons’ one.
Why the Demons win:
- The Demons may have lost their last five encounters with the Hawks but in their favour they haven’t lost six in a row to Hawthorn since the period 1981 to 1984.
The market*: Hawthorn $1.71, Melbourne $2.36
The Mozz: This could be the game of the round, with the Hawks in danger of missing the eight after a shocking couple of weeks and Melbourne the team that might just pinch their spot. Something tells the Mozz the Demons might just win here.
North Melbourne vs. St Kilda
Why the Kangaroos win:
- The Kangaroos hold a very narrow advantage over the Saints at Etihad Stadium, with seven wins to six in contests played at the venue.
Why the Saints win:
- St Kilda defeated North Melbourne in round two this season at Etihad Stadium, continuing its impressive recent form against the Kangaroos which has seen them win five of the last eight matches between the sides.
The market*: North Melbourne $4.40, St Kilda $1.26
The Mozz: The Saints were back to their best footy last weekend while North posted a very comfortable win over fifth-placed Fremantle. St Kilda are masters of Etihad and a class above the improving Kangaroos at the moment, which should be enough to get them the win.
* prices via Betfair.com, correct as at 5:30pm AEST, August 12, 2010
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
