The mozz is back for the Queen’s Birthday long weekend round - jinxing a club near you
North Melbourne v Carlton
Why the Kangaroos will win:
• North has dominated Carlton at Etihad Stadium, winning eight games to the Blues’ two, including a massive 124-point win in round 22, 2003.
• Carlton hasn’t won two games in a row over the Kangaroos for a decade - their last consecutive wins coming in the 2000-2001 seasons.
Why the Blues will win:
• Carlton holds the advantage over North under Friday night lights, winning five games to North’s three in the timeslot.
• Historically, the Blues hold a clear advantage over the Roos, with 94 wins to 52.
The market*: North Melbourne $4.20, Carlton $1.30
The mozz: North might be celebrating 25 years of Friday night footy pre-match, but after the game they’ll no doubt have a bad case of the Blues - Carlton too good for the Roos.
Hawthorn v Adelaide
Why the Hawks will win:
• Hawthorn and Adelaide have met at Aurora Stadium on three occasions, and the Hawks have won two of those three, including the most recent encounter, back in round 4, 2008.
• The Hawks have lost to a non-Victorian team at Aurora Stadium only once since 2007.
Why the Crows will win:
• Adelaide defeated Hawthorn twice last season, in round 10 at AAMI Stadium and round 20 at the MCG. Coincidentally, the margin was 27 points on both occasions.
• These teams have met on 29 occasions, with the Crows holding the head-to-head advantage - 17 wins to the Hawks’ 12.
The market*: Hawthorn $1.44, Adelaide Crows $3.10
The mozz: Hawks are on a demolition path back to September and will make a meal of the Crows.
Essendon v Geelong Cats
Why the Bombers will win:
• Despite recent defeats Essendon holds a clear historical advantage over Geelong, with 112 wins to the Cats’ 90.
• The Bombers have not been defeated by any team in round 12 since 2007, wining their last two games in the round comfortably.
Why the Cats will win:
• Geelong really hasn’t had too many problems accounting for Essendon in recent times. The Cats have won the last five encounters between the clubs by an average margin of 57 points.
• The last two times these teams have met at Etihad Stadium, Geelong has smashed the Bombers, winning by 99 points in 2008 and 64 points in 2009. In fact, they’ve won their last four games against Essendon at the venue by 42, 50, 99 and 64 points respectively.
The market*: Essendon $4.50, Geelong Cats $1.27
The mozz: Geelong to win - no one with any sense tips against them, mozz or no mozz!
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Why the Power will win:
• In a good omen for Port, these sides have met just once previously in round 12, back in 2004 at AAMI Stadium, when the Power stormed home to win by a club record 72 points.
• The Power has lost only once from six matches played in round 12 at AAMI Stadium, with that defeat occurring way back in 2001.
Why the Swans will win:
• The Swans have dominated Port Adelaide in recent seasons, winning a club record five consecutive games since 2006.
• The Power and Swans have met only twice previously on a Saturday night. Both games were played at AAMI Stadium, and the Swans won both - in 1997 by 35 points, and in 2006 by 27 points.
The market*: Port Adelaide $1.86, Sydney Swans $2.12
The mozz: The Power has been flickering on and off without warning so far in 2010, but home ground advantage might just be enough to keep it on and bring the fans from Alberton Oval a much-needed victory this week.
Richmond v West Coast
Why the Tigers will win:
• These teams have met just once previously in round 12, last season, when the Tigers won by 15 points at Etihad Stadium.
• The last time Richmond met West Coast on a Sunday afternoon, in 2008 at Subiaco Oval, the Tigers were comprehensive winners by 77 points.
Why the Eagles will win:
• West Coast has won eight of 10 games against Richmond since 2003, including four wins by more than 50 points.
• This will be the eleventh time these sides have met on a Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have the edge over the Tigers in the timeslot, with eight wins to two.
The market*: Richmond $1.92, West Coast Eagles $2.04
The mozz: Expect a big crowd at this match - Tiger supporters are sniffing potential victory. Should be a close one and Richmond could get up, but the Eagles should be too strong in the end.
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions
Why the Bulldogs will win:
• The last time the Western Bulldogs met the Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium, the Bulldogs were successful, winning by 28 points.
• Historically the Bulldogs hold the advantage over the Lions, winning 24 games to 17.
Why the Lions will win:
• These teams haven’t met at Etihad Stadium since 2005, but from their five clashes at the venue, the Lions hold the narrowest advantage, with three wins to the Dogs’ two.
• The Lions have played in round 12 at Etihad Stadium only twice previously and they are undefeated at the venue, winning by 66 points in 2004 and 58 in 2005.
The market*: Western Bulldogs $1.31, Brisbane Lions $4.10
The mozz: The Lions have become a two-trick pony since Fev joined big Browny in the forward line, and the Doggies have more than enough in their own bag of tricks to tame them.
Fremantle v St Kilda
Why Fremantle will win:
• Fremantle have hosted St Kilda 12 times at Subiaco Oval, and hold a clear head-to-head advantage with eight wins to the Saints’ four.
• Freo may have lost its most recent clash at Subiaco with the Saints, but it has never lost consecutive games at home against St Kilda.
Why the Saints will win:
• St Kilda has won its last five consecutive matches against Fremantle, which hasn’t managed to defeat the Saints since round 9, 2007.
• These sides have only met once previously in round 12, back in 2001 at Subiaco Oval. The Saints ran out winners by 10 points.
The market*: Fremantle $1.72, St Kilda $2.34
The mozz: Swinging the way of Fremantle given the enormous home-ground advantage Subiaco offers its tenants.
Melbourne v Collingwood
Why the Demons will win:
• The last time these teams met in round 12 was in 2005 at the MCG, and Melbourne won by 45 points. In fact, they’ve beaten Collingwood the past two times they’ve played them in this round.
• Melbourne holds the advantage over Collingwood in matches on a Monday afternoon with 12 wins to 10.
Why the Magpies will win:
• Collingwood has won the last five encounters between these sides, with Melbourne’s last victory over the Pies being in round 11, 2007.
• At the MCG, Collingwood holds a clear advantage over Melbourne with 74 wins to 54.
The market*: Melbourne $6.00, Collingwood $ 1.19
The mozz: The Pies got back on track last week, and will continue on their merry way by steamrolling the young Dees.
* Prices via Betfair.com, correct at 1:10pm, Friday June 11, 2010
