A GRANDSTAND finish. So far, that's what the finals series has lacked.

At different stages, some of the matches have been fiercely competitive – at ground level and on the scoreboard – but ultimately, each of the 2008 finals has so far ended with one team running roughshod over the other. The smallest margin has been Collingwood's 31-point defeat of Adelaide in week one.

There are many theories that seek to explain the propensity for finals matches to be so one-sided.

The extra intensity is obviously a factor, with teams tending to unravel as they struggle to take their games to a new level.

Sudden-death football also appears to have a big impact. Teams mindful that there is no tomorrow become tight when they fall behind by two or three goals. Comebacks become rarer as the panic factor takes its toll.

But perhaps the most pervasive influence on the one-sided nature of finals is the expectation of the football public.

We all want close matches at the business end of the season; and with only the best teams left in the competition, there's an undeniable expectation that we'll be treated to some nail-biting contests.

But do the statistics back up the blow-out theory? Are the margins in finals really more likely to be significantly greater than those in the home and away season?

The table below rates the winning margins in finals compared to that of the season as a whole since the current final eight system was adopted in 2000.

Year       Ave finals margin       Ave season margin
2008*     41                                  35.8
2007       45.8                               32.7
2006       26.4                               34.5
2005       32                                  34.4
2004       28                                  36.3
2003       38.3                               33.2
2002       31.5                               31.6
2001       38                                  36.7
2000       47.1                               38.4
 
* for the six finals played so far
 
Obviously the figures change by the year, but there is no definitive pattern showing finals blow out more than home and away games. From 2004 to 2007, the margin in finals was significantly lower on average than in home and away.


Of course, the great West Coast-Swans rivalry and their two epic grand finals of 2005-06, helped the statistics in those years -- and probably spoiled footy fans a little in regard to expectations of how grand finals should be contested.

The worry, though, is the emerging pattern of the last two years. A few shellackings – most notably Geelong's of Port Adelaide in the grand final -- blew out the margins in 2007, but there were at least three pulsating contests that kept fans on the edges of their seats

So far, 2008 has failed to deliver any, and this week's prelims sees two teams heavily favoured to keep the run of lopsided contests going.

But if the clichés are to be believed, footy is nothing if unpredictable. Hopefully, the Dogs and Saints gained enough momentum from their stirring wins on the weekend to take it up to Geelong and Hawthorn and give football fans the classic contests they have been craving.

And after that, who knows? Another one-point grand final win would be just the thing to kill off all the talk about finals blow-outs.

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.