Head to head: Richmond 99 wins, Melbourne 76 wins, two draws
Last time: Richmond 12.14 (86) d Melbourne 12.10 (82), round 18, 2009 at the MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Richmond
Daniel Connors (club suspension) - 8 weeks
Ben Cousins (club suspension) - 1 week
Luke McGuane (club suspension) - 1 week
Dean Polo (club suspension) - 1 week
Melbourne
Daniel Bell (shoulder) - 2 weeks
Neville Jetta - (groin) - 1 week
Liam Jurrah (shoulder) - 11 weeks
Max Gawn - Knee - indefinite
John Meesen (ankle) - indefinite
Cale Morton (knee) - 4 weeks
Jared Rivers (knee) - test
Colin Sylvia (jaw) - test
Luke Tapscott (hip) - indefinite
Austin Wonaeamirri (hamstring) - 1 week
FORM
Richmond: LLL
Melbourne: LLW
SUMMARY
Although external expectations weren't high for Richmond this season, losing its opening three matches by an average margin of 61 points would be frustrating to everyone at Tigerland. Add to that the eight-week suspension to Daniel Connors and the one-week penalties handed to Ben Cousins, Luke McGuane and Dean Polo for off-field incidents after round three, and it has been a disappointing start to 2010.
For Melbourne, things are looking up. After a round one shocker against Hawthorn, the Demons were gallant against the Magpies, going down by the narrowest of margins the following week when only the most ardent red-and-blue fan gave them any hope. A win against an injury-ravaged Adelaide in round three has given Melbourne renewed optimism for the season. The Demons will face a different challenge on Sunday - entering a match as favourites.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Emerging Demon Jack Grimes is fast becoming one of Melbourne’s most important players, despite just 15 matches to his name. He was instrumental in the final quarter against the Crows last week, where he won eight of his 20 touches for the match. His ability to set up play across half back has been impressive.
The form of first-year Tiger Dustin Martin has been excellent. In just three matches, the midfielder has averaged more than 20 disposals, with 22 touches coming against the Sydney Swans last round. Although he is now ineligible to win this year's NAB AFL Rising Star - he accepted a guilty plea for rough conduct this week - you can still expect him to be nominated in 2010.
QUESTION MARKS
Can Richmond cast aside its tough start to the season - on and off the field - and upset the now more-fancied Demons? This could be their best opportunity early in the season with matches against an in-form Fremantle and reigning premier Geelong looming.
Can Melbourne achieve its best start to a season since 2005, when the Demons won three of their opening four matches? A 2-2 win-loss record will be a most encouraging start to 2010, particularly after its season opener against Hawthorn.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Both teams have struggled to kick a score this season - Melbourne's 12.13 (85) against Collingwood is the best either side has managed in their opening three matches. Melbourne is averaging just 68 points per match, and Richmond just 56. The Demons have much better form on the board, especially in the past two rounds, and appear to have more talent at their disposal.
PREDICTION
Melbourne by 17 points
Follow Murray Belkin's inside view of Richmond v Melbourne at #afltigersdemons on Twitter.com from 1.10pm Saturday or @AFL_MurrayBelkin#afltigersdemons
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
