JUST when does the top eight become set?

Is there a hard and fast rule, or does each season have its own quirks?

Are Fremantle and Gold Coast still genuine chances to break through? What about last year's Grand Finalists, Brisbane?

An eight-team finals series was introduced in 1994, and since then, there's only been three occasions where the finalists have been locked in more than a month in advance.

The teams within the top eight did not change from round 15 onwards in 2006, in 2010 it was round 11, while the 2016 season had the clearest disparity between the best and the rest, with the top eight sides decided by round six.

Looking at this season, the make-up of the top 10 has not changed for the past six weeks, with the Western Bulldogs the last of the remaining eight sides to have featured in the mix, back in round six.

Of last year's finalists, Brisbane and St Kilda currently sit well outside of the top eight, with Geelong and Essendon having made the jump up.

Current top ten

1. Sydney (40 points, 150.1 per cent)
2. Essendon (34, 104.4)
3. Port Adelaide (32, 117.4)
4. Melbourne (28,116.9)
5. Greater Western Sydney (28, 114.6)
6. Geelong (28, 110.7)
7. Collingwood (28, 107.1)
8. Carlton (28, 104.9)
9. Fremantle (26, 110.6)
10. Gold Coast (24, 108.2)

Last year's top eight wasn't set until the penultimate round of the season.

At this point of the 2023 season (every team playing 11 games), the Giants were 14th and Carlton was 13th. Their charges up the ladder were just about to start.

Both played finals, the Giants being the last side to make the leap into the top eight, while Essendon and the Western Bulldogs slipped out of finals contention.

Collingwood and Richmond replaced St Kilda (fourth in round 11) and Carlton (fifth) for the 2022 finals series.

Just in case you've forgotten, look away now, Blues fans – Carlton dropped out of the eight for the first time all year in the final two minutes of its last game of the season, against the Pies, with Jamie Elliott breaking navy hearts around the nation.

Greater Western Sydney and Essendon took the spots of West Coast (seventh in round 11) and Richmond (eighth) back in 2021, which was a full 23-round season despite COVID lockdowns around the country.

Percentage of seasons where the top 8 of that round mirrored the final top 8

Excluding the shortened 2020 season

The past three seasons have seen the bye rounds commence at round 12, perhaps partially accounting for the identical figures between rounds 12-14 in the above table. 

History suggests when it comes to the top eight, round 21 is the tipping point when the team makeup is more unlikely than likely to change.

Round 22 becomes highly unlikely, with just 14 per cent of seasons having seen changes between that point and the set top eight.