AFL.com.au looks at each club and investigates what they need to do to get pick No.1
ADELAIDE
After being stripped of their picks from the opening two rounds of the NAB AFL Draft as punishment for the Kurt Tippett salary cap affair, the Crows would love to trade their way back into the top of the draft. The hole Tippett left in their forward line is still obvious and with Taylor Walker yet to return from a serious knee injury, a star key forward would fit Adelaide's needs like a glove. It'd take big bait to land such a player though and the Crows will struggle to find it. Patrick Dangerfield is absolutely off-limits and Rory Sloane, too, if you listen to the club. The Giants are in need of a key defender so Daniel Talia might fit the bill, though his absence would leave the Crows' defensive stocks dangerously thin.
What are the chances?
No doubt coach Brenton Sanderson wants the No.1 pick – who wouldn't? But is he willing to sacrifice what it would take to land it? Almost a definite no.
The perfect bait to tempt GWS to part with its No.1 pick would be Matthew Leuenberger. However, the super-talented ruckman recently signed a two-year contract extension and is off limits. The Lions are desperate for a tall forward though and could package out-of-contract Pearce Hanley or young ruckman Billy Longer with their first round pick - likely to be anywhere from number six to nine. Hanley is 24, played 71 games and rapidly becoming one of the League's most exciting, running ball-users. And despite Longer being overlooked by the Giants two years ago, he is now bigger and stronger and exactly what they need. Either could add to their list.
What are the chances?
The Lions have gone after most talls in recent years (including Kurt Tippett, Chris Dawes and the rights to Jesse Hogan last year), so don't be surprised if they throw plenty at this trade. It's hard to see them parting with Hanley or Longer, but you have to bet big to win big, so don't count them out. - Michael Whiting
CARLTON
Carlton coach Mick Malthouse says two of the Blues' own No. 1 draft picks, Matthew Kreuzer and Bryce Gibbs, are untouchable. But everyone has their price, and the prospect of Boyd leading the club's attack for the next decade is a tantalising one. It's difficult to see how the Blues would manufacture such a deal without Kreuzer in particular being a key part of negotiations, especially from the Giants' perspective. He could be bundled up with Carlton's first-round pick, currently No.10. Alternatively, the inconsistent Chris Yarran is far more likely to be offered up by the Blues, although in that case the Giants would also want at least another player. Opportunity-starved tap ruckman Robert Warnock could be an option – plus Carlton's first pick.
What are the chances?
It's as much a question of whether Carlton is prepared to compromise potential short-term success for long gain. The Blues are screaming out for a quality key forward but can't afford to wait for Boyd to develop. They need to have a crack at a premiership in the next season or two to capitalise on the skills of Chris Judd (30 in September), Jarrad Waite (30), Andrew Carrazzo (30 in December), Kade Simpson (29), Michael Jamison (27) and Andrew Walker (27). Recruiting an experienced key forward seems a better option. - Ben Collins
COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies' growing reliance on Travis Cloke is becoming a concern, so the acquisition of Tom Boyd would be a nice fillip. Restricted free-agent Dale Thomas' ankle injury and age may rule him out of the race. Two players who may come in to calculations, and in the right age bracket, are Ben Reid and Steele Sidebottom. A packaged deal of Reid or Sidebottom, coupled with Collingwood's first-round draft pick (currently No.13) may get the Giants interested. Throw in Brodie Grundy or Jarrod Witts, a former NSW scholarship holder, and there may be the makings of a deal.
What are the chances?
Unlikely. With a large gulf between the Pies' experienced and younger players, Sidebottom and Reid are two of a few who fit in the middle rung of the club's age bracket. If the Giants really wanted Grundy, they would have selected him with one of their picks last year. Even if the Giants are interested in Sidebottom or Reid, the fact remains the Magpies – if they parted with either player – would be sacrificing a large chunk of their future to land a supremely talented, but as yet untried, 17-year-old. - Ben Guthrie
It'd be a huge call, but could Collingwood offer up Steele Sidebottom to the Giants? Picture: AFL Media
ESSENDON
With a number of quality players remaining out of contract, the Bombers would be in a strong position to work out an offer if they wanted to secure the No.1 pick. The Giants are after a ruckman and Tom Bellchambers would be the perfect fit for them, while defenders Cale Hooker and Tayte Pears are also players who would help give the Giants' list some strength across half-back.
What are the chances?
Very low. Why would the Bombers trade for access to the best player of the draft, Tom Boyd, when they picked up the best player of last draft in Joe Daniher? They are probably one midfielder short of being a complete list, but the club is very unlikely to trade one of its established players for the selection. Its priority is on re-contracting the players who haven't yet signed with the club. - Callum Twomey
The Dockers have the capabilities of putting together a deal which would interest GWS but it would come at a price. Fremantle could afford to trade one big-bodied, experienced midfielder but the Giants would probably expect an A-grader like David Mundy or Michael Barlow as opposed to Tendai Mzungu. One of those packaged with Alex Silvagni, who would be keen for more opportunities as a key defender, would be an enticing prospect.
What are the chances?
Probably minimal, as the risk versus reward might be too great, plus the fact Fremantle is in its premiership window and prefer a ready-made key position forward. To give up Mundy, a best and fairest winner, or Barlow, who could win the club trophy this year, would significantly diminish an elite two-way running midfield that has become a force in the competition. The Dockers would be more interested in enticing a free agent. - Alex Malcolm
GEELONG
The Cats targeted the free agency and trade periods last season, bringing in Jared Rivers, Hamish McIntosh and Josh Caddy. But although Geelong is likely to again have a good look at the free agents on the market, trading established stars for the No.1 pick is not something the Cats are remotely interested in. This should hardly come as a surprise, given the club has put together a very well balanced list, which features a host of quality youngsters and some big-name stars - Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins and Joel Selwood - who are still in their mid-20s.
What are the chances?
Geelong would have to offer up gun players like Mitch Duncan and Allen Christensen to attract Greater Western Sydney's interest. There is no chance of that happening. None at all. - Adam McNicol
GOLD COAST
List manager Scott Clayton has admitted it would take something special to pry the number one pick from GWS. What the Suns do have is a class young ruckman in Tom Nicholls that should be mighty tempting. Nicholls is a star of the future and could be packaged with the Suns' first round pick (likely to be number five to seven) to get the deal done. Gold Coast will have Zac Smith returning from a knee reconstruction next season and also have Charlie Dixon to comfortably cover its ruck stocks.
What are the chances?
The Suns love Nicholls and it's hard to see him going anywhere. And why would they? Every club needs three good ruckmen these days. They also have an abundance of young key-position players in Dixon, Tom Lynch, Sam Day and Rory Thompson who they have put three years into, so it's hard to see why the Suns would give up anything for another young tall. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. - Michael Whiting
Fans looking to turn a potential negative into a positive have suggested the Hawks may be able to salvage something if Lance Franklin decides to join Greater Western Sydney by trading him for the No.1 pick. But the reality is Franklin is a restricted free agent and, given Hawthorn has no hope of matching the rival offer, can walk to the Giants for nothing. It makes no sense at all for GWS to make that trade. That considered, would either party entertain an exchange of pick one for Brad Sewell – out of favour at the Hawks a fortnight ago – plus draft picks?
What are the chances?
Achieving a trade will be hard for the Hawks because their first draft pick will fall at or near the very end of round one, giving it less currency than other clubs' picks in any package deal. Added to that, would Sewell fit the age profile GWS is seeking? Possibly not. And would the Hawks part with a club champion who has provided outstanding service over 10 years and nearly 200 games? Again, it's doubtful. - Mark Macgugan
While all the talk is about Buddy to GWS, what about Brad Sewell and a pick? Picture: AFL Media
MELBOURNE
Melbourne has its own Tom Boyd, by the name of Jesse Hogan, who will almost certainly debut in the opening game of next season, so their interest in bringing Boyd to the club is likely to be minimal. But the Demons have gaping holes in their midfield, so they could be open to deals where they trade down if it means access to more draft selections down the track or to bring experienced and talented midfielders to their club.
What are the chances?
Close to zero. But the Demons may entertain offers for pick two. - Ashley Browne
NORTH MELBOURNE
North could join the race for Tom Boyd by pitching an offer centred around its No.1 ruckman Todd Goldstein. The Giants are in the market for a quality big man and Goldstein, although slightly down on his stellar 2011 form, is a hit-out machine. The Roos would probably also need to throw in their first-round pick (currently No.6 overall) to satisfy the Giants. It's a massive price to pay but North looks well placed to cover Goldstein's loss, with Daniel Currie capable of stepping into the No.1 ruck job and Majak Daw likely to play a bigger senior role in 2014.
What are the chances?
Having patiently rebuilt with youth since 2006, North is highly unlikely to part with Goldstein, who at 25, shapes as one of the key planks of its future. Any prospective trade would also be complicated by the likelihood North will have to part with its first-round pick to secure prospective father-son recruit Luke McDonald. Besides which the Roos are already well stocked for key forwards with Drew Petrie, Robbie Tarrant, Aaron Black, Majak Daw and Tom Curran. - Nick Bowen
PORT ADELAIDE
There are three Power players good enough for the Giants to consider giving up their coveted pick for: Chad Wingard, Oliver Wines and Travis Boak. Wingard and Wines are superstars of the future, while Boak is Port's captain and has experience, class and plenty of football left. They're gems and the Power wouldn't think of handing them over. Hamish Hartlett's ability and experience would no doubt be an asset to a young Giants outfit, but he alone wouldn't garner enough interest for them to part with a No.1 draft pick, even if Port added some steak knives.
What are the chances?
Port has one of the youngest lists in the League and their experienced players are jut as important to its group as they would be for the Giants. Not going to happen. - Harry Thring
RICHMOND
It's no secret the Giants are after key-position players and the Tigers have a very big one coming out of contract who is reportedly discontent with the current offer on the table. Jack Riewoldt would fit the bill at the Giants and in turn, the Tigers could snare Boyd - an emerging key forward who could grow into the hole left by Riewoldt's departure AND free up some salary cap space to ensure the retention of players such as Dustin Martin, Reece Conca and Dylan Grimes, who are also out of contract at season's end.
What are the chances?
While money is the sticking point, it's fair to say both Richmond and Riewoldt want their association to continue. He's very unlikely to leave, but if by any chance a deal was unable to be done and the Giants backed the truck up, the arrangement could benefit both parties in the long run. - Jennifer Phelan
As long as Jack Riewoldt is out of contract there will be talk of him being on the table. Picture: AFL: Media
ST KILDA
The Saints' only currency if they deal for Tom Boyd is ruckman Ben McEvoy. Greater Western Sydney needs a ruckman, and McEvoy, 24, fits their age profile nicely. A top-10 draft pick, he is highly rated by the Saints and is about to come into his own. The Saints could package McEvoy with their first pick (likely to be No.3) for pick No.1 and the Giants' mid first-round compensation pick (No.10). Tom Hickey, who has played eight games this season, would become the club's No.1 ruckman, getting the opportunity he needs to reach his potential.
What are the chances?
The Saints should move heaven and earth to get the No.1 pick and they are in a good position to do so, as they'll likely have the third pick to deal with. However, it depends on what mature talent they're ready to part with. McEvoy is seen as a key part of the club's future, so it may be unlikely he heads north. If it doesn't happen, Saints fans can look forward to welcoming one of James Aish, Matt Scharenberg, Josh Kelly or Jack Billings to Seaford. - Nathan Schmook
SYDNEY SWANS
The Swans have a very settled list and the majority of their key players are under contract beyond 2013. But one man who is yet to extend his contract is ruckman Shane Mumford, and he fits the bill nicely for the type of big-bodied, mature player the Giants crave. Moving across town wouldn't be too disruptive for the 27-year-old, yet it would take more than just Mumford to convince GWS to trade with its Harbour City rival. Packaged with a Tony Armstrong, Heath Grundy or a Lewis Roberts-Thomson might help, but that's extremely unlikely to transpire. There's also the small matters of Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid, which means the Swans really aren't in the market for a gun young key forward.
What are the chances?
Tepid at best. The Swans will conduct their due diligence as they always do during trade period, but it's difficult to see them being in the Tom Boyd race. – James Dampney
GWS could be tempted by Shane Mumford but the Swans don't need another forward. Picture: AFL Media
WEST COAST
The Eagles have a ready-made key defender in Mitch Brown. The first round draftee pursued a trade to St Kilda last year and has not ruled out leaving at the end of this year. The Eagles could put a package together that included Brown, 24, their first round pick and young ruckman Scott Lycett. Although Lycett has only played four matches, the 20-year-old second round pick has spent three years working with Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui and forward/ruck coach Justin Longmuir and has plenty of upside.
What are the chances?
Zero. West Coast has one of the best power forward duos in the AFL in Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, aged 25 and 22 respectively. The Eagles would be more interested in finding some skilled, pacey midfielders to replace their veterans and also keeping their talented list injury-free. - Alex Malcolm
The Bulldogs have made it clear that they won't be offering up Ryan Griffen as trade bait, so that doesn't leave the club with much room to move. Griffen has the runs on the board after a huge season, and would have been an attractive prospect for Greater Western Sydney. Will Minson is another with currency, and the Giants need a mature ruckman. But if the Dogs give up Minson, their ruck stocks are close to non-existent given their big man has shouldered the load solo this year. It's a big gamble. The Dogs would love to snare a key forward like Tom Boyd, but they are going to have to be flexible if they are to get a deal done with the Giants.
What are the chances?
While it may be unlikely, anything can happen in trade week. The Bulldogs have made it clear they aren't prepared to give up the cattle required to snare the top draft pick - not yet anyway. After years of compromised drafts the Dogs should finish up with a pick in the top four. With Boyd out of the frame the club may look to snare a polished midfielder, like James Aish, Josh Kelly or Jack Billings. - Jacqui Reed
Star midfielder Ryan Griffen is close to untouchable at the Western Bulldogs. Picture: AFL Media