Swings, roundabouts and big margins

Peter Ryan, AFL Record: Should the AFL be concerned about the imbalanced nature of the ladder and the huge margins we're seeing?

Ashley Browne, afl.com.au: Yes, but only to a point. It's all cyclical. There is plenty of evidence over the years of teams turning it around within 12 months. West Coast scored one goal against Essendon in 1989 and was in the finals a year later. Essendon lost to the Hawks by 160 in 1992 and won a flag a year later. We should also be talking up the general excellence in the eight. There are five really good teams and a floater - St Kilda - who could make a deep run. And the finals start in a month.

Howard Kotton, AFL Record: Of course the AFL should be concerned but I don't believe we should jump to hasty conclusions at this stage. Let's make a judgment over at least another season or two. But Mick Malthouse is right - people will either not turn up to games that are likely to be one-sided or switch off their TV sets, which many people would have on Saturday night.

Callum Twomey, AFL Record: Maybe, but the circumstances of this year have to be taken into account. The 24-round season has probably meant that as the year has gone on there have been a lot of games that have been relatively predictable. The extra two weeks has made a difference in my opinion. It will be interesting to see whether free agency further widens the gap.

Ryan: I kept the telly on on Saturday night and I've been to Geelong the last two weeks. At the moment some games are a bit like round one at Wimbledon, just wait for the finals for the real contests. Strong clubs will be better placed to get more value out of lower draft picks, employ more specialised coaches and to attract talent with free agency. Those equalisation principles need to be looked at to see if they need strengthening. There should be serious debates about priority picks and the potential of a mid-season draft. A great finals series though will change the mood.

Michael Lovett, AFL Record: Swings and roundabouts for me. It will take at least another four to five years before we see Gold Coast and GWS become consistently good. The Port Adelaide situation is a worry because they could not have picked a worse time to bottom out. Melbourne needs to sort out its own backyard but the talent is there. Adelaide, Richmond and Brisbane have shown glimpses. I also think the blowouts will reduce if and when Collingwood and Geelong come back to the field.

Ryan: Swings and roundabouts but Geelong is the first club in the game's history to win 17 games in five successive seasons. I can't remember in my lifetime Collingwood having such winning streaks and St Kilda had them a couple of years ago. Inevitably with more teams of course the gap is wider. Logically the difference between 17 and one is bigger than 14 and one or 12 and one.

Nick Bowen, AFL Record: We've always had battlers. Remember how bad Fitzroy was in the end? I don't think the AFL can do any more to even up the comp. The priority pick system gets people worked up enough as it is. As long as the talent is there at the top end of the comp - and it's not the same sides there every year - I don't see a huge problem. Although with an 18-team comp next year, there are going to be more teams than ever playing out time in the second half of the season.

Ryan: We didn't see the battlers on television as often back then (just the slo-mo replays on World of Sport's Footy Panel). However, on balance from the weekend, there were two big margins and a classic game between the Sydney Swans and Essendon. The close games always remind you why we love the game. The basics remain: organisations need good administration to attract good people who can make the club a good environment to be around and get better.

Nick Bowen, AFL Record: Pete, I think we just to be patient. Time - and the salary cap and the draft - will bring the Cats back to the field eventually. Just as it will take the Suns, Giants and the Power up the ladder eventually. I certainly don't think we can add any more concessions to battlers to speed up that process. It's a competition after all and teams like Geelong that assemble a good list and manage it well should not be penalised because other teams haven't been so good in those areas.

Ryan: True - five years, no Scarlett, Chapman, Bartel, Corey, Mooney, Ling, Enright, Johnson, Ottens, things look different don't they?

Lovett: It's all about list management. Clubs like Collingwood and Geelong keep turning over talent and they have the ability to find an Andrew Krakouer or a Harry Taylor where others have turned their noses at players like that. Recruiters must work harder and smarter.

That last round is looming

Ryan: Everyone focuses on the Geelong v Collingwood potential 'dead rubber' round 22 but Hawthorn play the Suns in the last round and the Eagles have Adelaide at home, Carlton play St Kilda and Essendon has the bye. Do you play your best team in the last round to fine tune or rest anyone you can?

Kotton: It can vary on circumstances. In Carlton's case, it has used 38 players and several players coming back from injury such as Jarrad Waite, Michael Jamison and Shaun Hampson will need as much as game-time as they can get. As the Blues have the bye in round 23, those players will have to play in the VFL for extra match practice.

Browne: If Hawthorn has third place secured by round 24, it must seriously consider resting a few players for the Gold Coast game, which starts at 1pm. Heat might be a factor by then, so you'd seriously think about resting Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli, Franklin and others. Particularly if they get word from the AFL that their first final will be the Friday night. The Collingwood-Geelong clash will be interesting too. Bruise-free footy anyone?

Twomey: Each club will have a different idea on who should be rested or could do with a rest compared to who could do with an extra game before the finals. It's difficult to say one option is better than the other, but I'm sure Fremantle of last year will get raised when round 24 rolls along. Freo rested a heap of key players when they took on Hawthorn in Tassie and lost, but then had them all back later when they ran all over the Hawks at home in the elimination final.

Bowen: I think teams that can rest players will rest those who need a rest. But they don't want to get too cute. It's much better to rotate a few players out for a rest each week and there's only two teams in a position to do that at the moment - Collingwood and Geelong.

Ryan: Imagine Tom Hawkins, Cameron Mooney, Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack in that last round. They will be going hell for leather to impress. Fremantle had the travel aspect to factor in. Wonder what the Eagles will do in round 23 when taking that long trip over to Brisbane. Might be a Coxless 22. Would the Blues rest Chris Judd? By the way that is one-side contest I am worried about: Brownlow night. He's ruining footy's night of nights.

Kotton: The Blues won't rest Judd. He's already spent a fair bit of time rotating off the bench and has been used up forward more this year. The Blues also have a bye in round 23, so Juddy can put his feet up, spending time at home with Rebecca and Oscar.

Lovett: Methinks Juddy would like a third Brownlow as well Howard!

Courage is …

Ryan: Why is Sydney Swan Daniel Hannebery's effort lauded for its courage and the Lions' Jonathan Brown's effort against Geelong said to be foolhardy?

Browne: Perhaps it says something about 'earning your stripes'. But it's a fair point. So far Hannebery is smarter because he recovered. Browny, meanwhile, ended up in hospital.

Bowen: It's such a fine line. Maybe it's like the bump, we frame our response based on the outcome. Brown fractures his face so he's gone over the top, but Hannebery gets up relatively unscathed so he's been - smartly - courageous. Would be happy to see anyone in my team attack the ball like either Brown or Hannebery.

Twomey: Hannebery didn't really run head first into Hurley like Brown did into Mitch Clark. He turned his body a little bit, and didn't cop the brunt of the hit to his head. For what it's worth, Brown's a veteran and has, as Ash has said, earned his stripes. He doesn't need to be running into teammates like that.

Ryan: Didn't realise there was a seniors' dispensation in football Cal. I reckon we love the warrior aspect without really understanding the role of technique and timing and teammates in charging back at the ball. Hannebery was brave and set a great example for his teammates as to what he was prepared to do. But so did Brown. He just messed up the timing.

Twomey: What's worth more to the Lions right now given the club's position, Pete: Jonathan Brown playing or three more seconds of courage to put on a video? Everyone at the Lions already knows how brave he is. Hannebery went back to help a teammate, Brown went back and crashed into one.

Running backs

Ryan: The role of the sweeping, running defender has become so important. Has anything changed to make it such a critical role or are Leon Davis, Chris Yarran and even Travis Varcoe on Saturday just taking it to another level?

Browne: These sweepers at their best are among the most exhilarating sights in football. What's interesting is how teams are reluctant to play outright negating forwards on the sweepers probably because they're reluctant to tamper with forward structures. How Davis has turned himself around is one of the stories of the year. One for you Pete: did you see it coming and who gets the credit for the move?

Ryan: I did not see it coming. I'm guessing it was Mick. He floats such ideas for discussion on a Monday and then the coaching staff and player work to make it work. Tests it through talk, knows it through history, is trusted because he's done it all, and then observes it through action. That's what great coaches can do. I remember asking Mick many years ago when he was at the Eagles what Peter Matera thought of the move from the wing to half-back and he said, 'He'll play where he is told'. Understand now that it would have been a discussion as much as a direction. Watching Leon trap the ball and deliver through zones is exhilarating. He can attack the ball and is good going back when it is kicked over the top because he can turn on a five-cent piece. I reckon the current crop of sweepers need better crumbing skills and be able to run back towards goal as space opens up behind them at pace then those who went before. And they need courage to take the game on and kick well.

Bowen: I don't think half-back has become any more important this year. Teams have been playing guns - with great foot skills - there forever and a day. Are you saying Yarran and co are better than Andrew McLeod, for instance?

Kotton: Yarran isn't better than McLeod yet, but in full flight he is one of the better sights in the game. He has plenty of improvement left in his game, such as dealing with taggers and better in marking contests. But I believe he has taken big strides in these areas from the start of the season. Offensively, he has the ability to be a game-breaker.

Bowen: Paul Roos made an interesting point about some of these reborn defenders last week. He said at some point Yarran is going to have to defend. He said Tadhg Kennelly had been able to do this at the Swans, but the jury still seemed to be out on Yarran. The same could be said of Leon. The true test will come in the finals. You can bet opposition teams will play through their men. Will they be able to play tight when they need to?

Twomey: It will be fascinating to see if Davis takes on Milne this Friday night. He probably wouldn't with Ben Johnson there and given Alan Toovey could be back this week from injury. I think Milne would be quietly pretty happy if Leon lined-up on him.

Ryan: Davis has been very good in the one-on-ones this season. Every defender at some point has to hold his nerve so it’s a tough gig and people will highlight the outcomes of the one-on-one battles Yarran and Davis engage in more than others, which is unfair but reality. The key for both Davis and Yarran will be the support they have around them and the midfield pressure that gives them a chance.

Bowen: Is it just me or does Yarran bounce the ball every third step? Everyone gets worked up about the amount of bounces he's had this year but it would be interesting to see the actual ground he's covered.

Kotton: Nick, haven't worked that one out, but he does bounce the ball pretty regularly. He is so quick, though, it is hard to catch him. But I agree with you that he will have to defend and he will be severely tested in the finals, even in round 22 in the blockbuster against the Hawks. But he is still developing and learning the defensive aspect of the game.

Bowen: I agree he's a beauty Howard. And you're not going to beat Collingwood, Geelong or the Hawks playing it safe.

Ryan: Yeah he does get into a rhythm, bouncing and running, like a basketballer. The advantage these players have is they are versatile and in finals could be thrown forward if in trouble. The top teams are looking to build in versatility. Would love to see Rioli v Davis in a final. Yarran's ability to weave through traffic and start counterattacks allows Carlton to push numbers back and create space forward of centre where their little guys can cause havoc.

After the siren

Bowen: Goodes' was the fourth crucial miss for the season - Robbie Warnock (against Geelong), Justin Westhoff (against Gold Coast), Hayden Ballantyne (against the Eagles). Are players finding it harder to deliver in the clutch moment?

Lovett: I thought Goodes was stiff. He had three blokes on the mark, he hit it sweetly and it looked all but through.

Twomey: It's probably never been easy to kick the clutch goal. But I wonder if with the sub rule and players spending more minutes on the ground has meant that by the last kick of the day they are physically and mentally exhausted.

Ryan: One knocked out (Warnock), one tough shot (Westhoff), one acute angle (Ballantyne), one could-have-kicked, but players are fatigued at the end of games. Would be interesting to see set shot accuracy in the final quarter of games. There have been more points than goals kicked in the first quarter of games overall with the last quarter having the best accuracy ratio (ratios are as follows: Q1: 51.8, Q2: 53.1, Q3: 53.2, Q4: 53.6). Take those sliding doors moments the other way though and Carlton would be in top four, the Swans in top eight and Fremantle hanging on. Tough caper footy.

Points, points, points

Ryan: Brad Scott is sick of honourable defeats. You can't question effort but what does North need to take the next step and become a real contender?

Browne: North just doesn't have enough top-liners. At least not yet. Look who stepped up for the Hawks - (Lance) Franklin and (Shaun) Burgoyne. Mitchell was great for three quarters, but was stuffed, so enter Burgoyne. North just needs a bit more silk to go with the grunt.

Bowen: Time, pure and simply. Scott's message this year has been so consistent - North needs to move the ball better, especially into its forward line, to be competitive against the top teams. That will take time and is as much about working on the young players' decision-making as it is about their skills. North has drafted a lot better than some people give them credit for in the past few years. People say they don't have enough skill. To that I say have a look at Kieran Harper - he's going to be a star.

Lovett: Agree with you Ash. They had a tough draw with two trips in the first month to Perth and only the Pies have really got hold of them. What would they give for a dynamic presence ... dare I say a Carey at 28, not 40 and playing in the burbs!

Browne: Draft for need or take best available player? Sometimes that decides how much silk you have on the playing list.

Bowen: Ash, there's more skill there than you think. I've mentioned Kieran Harper, but Shaun Atley is going to be an explosive runner, Jamie Macmillan is a very composed player who uses the ball well. Add them to (Jack) Ziebell, (Ryan) Bastinac, (Levi) Greenwood and there's the basis of a gun midfield.

Ryan: What-ifs are big but I can't help thinking of the one-point loss to Swans. Even a rushed behind would have given them two points from that match. I think they are very exciting, with real midfield depth and Ziebell becoming a star with some silk around him. Great signs for North in just two years under Scott.

Twomey: When a game is at its defining point, a lot seems to get left to one of Swallow, Petrie or Harvey to deliver the goods. That's fine because they are all stars, but add two or three more of those players capable of dragging them over the line and North will be in good shape.

Ryan: Structure is great. North just need experience and a joker in the draft kitty. And (Matt) Campbell was the man who stepped forward yesterday.

The views on this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs