SUMMARY
The circumstances are much different to when Geelong (3-0) and Hawthorn (0-3) met in last year's qualifying final. The Cats started their rebuild several years ago and missed the finals in 2015 – a fate the Hawks appear to be staring down the barrel at – but are already back contending again. Geelong may have unearthed another star in the form of round three NAB AFL Rising Star nominee Brandan Parfitt, but its season fortunes are resting most on 'Dangerwood' – Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood – and reborn forward Daniel Menzel. The immediate future is not so bright for Hawthorn, with a litany of premiership stars, such as Josh Gibson, Jack Gunston and Shaun Burgoyne, struggling to recapture their best. Boom recruit Jaeger O'Meara is also taking time in his return to the game after multiple knee injuries, but ex- Swan Tom Mitchell and Adelaide newcomer Ricky Henderson have bucked the trend.
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WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Monday, April 17, 3.20pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
PAST FIVE TIMES
2QF, 2016, Geelong 12.13 (85) d Hawthorn 12.11 (83) at the MCG
R1, 2016, Geelong 18.8 (116) d Hawthorn 12.14 (86) at the MCG
R20, 2015, Hawthorn 19.7 (121) d Geelong 12.13 (85) at the MCG
R1, 2015, Hawthorn 17.21 (123) d Geelong 8.13 (61) at the MCG
2QF, 2014, Hawthorn 15.14 (104) d Geelong 10.8 (68) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. Isaac Smith famously missed the chance to give Hawthorn the win when these teams last played in a 2016 qualifying final, missing a shot for goal after the final siren. The Hawks had 38 more disposals and took 48 more marks that night. Patrick Dangerfield starred for the Cats with 35 disposals, six inside-50s and seven clearances.
2. Hawthorn continues to struggle to score, ranked third-last for total points per game at only 77, down from 95 in 2016. They’re equal-14th for inside-50s and second-last for marks inside-50.
3. Geelong has won the past two clashes between the sides, snapping Hawthorn’s successful run of four consecutive victories. Since 2010 there have been six finishes decided by less than a goal.
4. The Cats are the most accurate team in front of goal this season – and by a long way. They have kicked 55.23 at 64.7 per cent, with the next best being Port Adelaide at 55.4 per cent. Hawthorn is struggling around the sticks, kicking 32.41 at 46.4 per cent.
5. Another loss and it will be the first time under Alastair Clarkson the Hawks have lost the opening four games of a season, and the first time since 1998 under any coach.
6. Tom Mitchell (56th) and Paul Puopolo (73rd) are the only Hawthorn players in the top 100 in the Schick AFL Player Ratings to improve their standing this season.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Jack Gunston
Gunston's barren run in front of the sticks – his season tally is four behinds – is his worst since his second year at Hawthorn in 2013, when he failed to kick a goal in his first two matches. He has Jarryd Roughead for company again up forward and possibly he needs an adjustment period, but the skipper's return should ultimately be helpful.
PREDICTION: Geelong by 15 points.
