COLLINGWOOD and Essendon face brutal four-game stretches to finish the home and away season as they bid to play finals in 2024.
The Magpies, coming off a win over Richmond on Sunday, meet top-four teams in their next three games, before a final-round meeting with Melbourne.
The reigning premiers will head into September in dangerous form if they make it there, given their next three games are against Carlton (fourth), Sydney (first) and Brisbane (second).
That means the average ladder position of Collingwood's last four home and away opponents is 4.5, the hardest run of any team.
Also needing to prove themselves in the final weeks of the home and away season are the Bombers, who have fallen to 10th after Saturday's loss to St Kilda.
Essendon has the second hardest run behind the Magpies, with the average ladder position of its opponents just 4.8 – ahead of games against Fremantle (third), Gold Coast (13th), the Swans and Lions.
The easiest run to finish the home and away season belongs to Gold Coast (13.8).
The Suns are 13th and two games outside the top eight, but won't meet a team currently sitting in a finals spot in their final four games. However, three of those games are interstate.
Essendon has had the easiest run this season to date, with the average ladder position of its opponents so far being 11.2, ahead of Fremantle (10.6), Port Adelaide (10.5) and Brisbane (10.4)
If the ladder was unchanged from here, the easiest fixtures for the season as a whole would be held by the Lions (10.4) and Hawthorn (10.2).
Each club's degree of difficulty is the average ladder position of its opponents. The lower the score, the harder the fixture is expected to be
R21: v Geelong, GMHBA Stadium
R22: v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval
R23: v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R24: v Sydney, SCG
Current ladder position: 15th (7-11-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 8.9 (Fifth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 5.5 (Equal third hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 4
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
The Crows have endured a tough season with the fixture, their games up to the conclusion of round 20 rated as the fifth hardest. Adelaide's final four games don't get much easier. A trip to GMHBA Stadium is followed by two games at Adelaide Oval, against the Bulldogs and in the Showdown against Port. The Crows head to the SCG to take on the Swans in round 24.
R21: v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
R22: v Greater Western Sydney, Gabba
R23: v Collingwood, MCG
R24: v Essendon, Gabba
Current ladder position: 2nd (12-6-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 10.4 (15th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 10.3 (10th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
After their tough start to the season, the Lions are well placed to earn a top-four finish. Brisbane's final four games of the season are rated as the 10th hardest. The run includes two trips to Melbourne (to take on St Kilda and Collingwood), with the Lions' home games against the Giants in round 22 and the Bombers in their final game of the home and away season.
R21: v Collingwood, MCG
R22: v Hawthorn, MCG
R23: v West Coast, Optus Stadium
R24: v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 4th (12-7)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.5 (Equal ninth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 12.8 (Equal 15th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 0
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
The Blues have a dream run home as they look to secure a top-four finish. The average ladder position of their final four opponents is 12.8 – making their stretch the equal 15th hardest. Carlton's next two games are at the MCG, against the Magpies and Hawks, before a trip west to take on the Eagles. They wrap up the home and away season against the Saints at Marvel Stadium.
R21: v Carlton, MCG
R22: v Sydney, SCG
R23: v Brisbane, MCG
R24: v Melbourne, MCG
Current ladder position: 12th (9-8-2)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.4 (Equal seventh hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 4.5 (Hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
With their finals hopes still alive, the Magpies face a brutal run home, during which they will get a chance to prove themselves as contenders. Collingwood's last four games are rated as the hardest with the average ladder position of their four opponents just 4.5. The Magpies do play three of those at the MCG, against the Blues, Lions and Demons, with one trip to the SCG to take on the Swans in round 22.
R21: v Fremantle, MCG
R22: v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium
R23: v Sydney, Marvel Stadium
R24: v Brisbane, Gabba
Current ladder position: 10th (10-8-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 11.2 (18th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 4.8 (Second hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
With their fixture so far rated as the easiest, the Bombers will need to prove they are worthy of playing finals if they are to make it to September, with their final four games rated as the second hardest. They play their next three in Melbourne against the Dockers, Suns and Swans before a tough trip to the Gabba to meet the Lions in round 24.
R21: v Essendon, MCG
R22: v Geelong, Optus Stadium
R23: v Greater Western Sydney, Engie Stadium
R24: v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium
Current ladder position: 3rd (12-6-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 10.6 (17th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 7 (Fifth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
The Dockers have a chance to claim a top-four finish, but it won't be easy. Their final four home and away games are rated as the fifth hardest. Fremantle makes the trip to the MCG to face Essendon in round 21 before welcoming the Cats to Optus Stadium. Then, it's a trip to face the Giants before welcoming the Power to Perth in the final round.
R21: v Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium
R22: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
R23: v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
R24: v West Coast, GMHBA Stadium
Current ladder position: 6th (12-7)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.7 (12th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 12 (Equal 13th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
The Cats have an easy run home that should see them seal a spot in September. Three of their final four games are against teams currently sitting in the bottom five. They welcome the Crows to GMHBA Stadium before a trip west to meet the Dockers. They are in Victoria for their final two matches, facing the Saints at Marvel Stadium and the lowly Eagles at GMHBA Stadium.
R21: v West Coast, Optus Stadium
R22: v Essendon, Marvel Stadium
R23: v Melbourne, People First Stadium
R24: v Richmond, MCG
Current ladder position: 13th (9-10)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9 (Sixth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 13.8 (18th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 0
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
The Suns remain alive for a first finals appearance, and their final four games are rated as the easiest. The main problem is that three of them are interstate. They have a great chance to break their hoodoo on the road against the Eagles in round 21. Then, they head to Marvel Stadium to take on the Bombers before returning home to host the Demons. Gold Coast wraps up its home and away season against the Tigers at the MCG.
R21: v Hawthorn, Manuka Oval
R22: v Brisbane, Gabba
R23: v Fremantle, Engie Stadium
R24: v Western Bulldogs, Mars Stadium
Current ladder position: 5th (12-7)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.5 (Equal ninth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 5.5 (Equal third hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
Like the Suns, the Giants have three interstate trips in their final four games, although the first of those is to Canberra to meet the Hawks. It's a tricky run to finish the season, rated as the equal third hardest. GWS heads to the Gabba to take on the Lions before hosting the Dockers, and their final game of the home and away season against the Bulldogs in Ballarat shapes as having plenty on the line.
R21: v Greater Western Sydney, Manuka Oval
R22: v Carlton, MCG
R23: v Richmond, MCG
R24: v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium
Current ladder position: 9th (11-8)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 10.1 (14th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 11 (Equal 11th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
The high-flying Hawks have a chance to claim a spot in the top eight, and their final four games are rated as the equal 11th hardest. A trip to Canberra to take on the Giants will be difficult, before they return to the MCG for matches against the Blues and Tigers. They will also be expected to beat the Kangaroos in round 24.
R21: v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium
R22: v Port Adelaide, MCG
R23: v Gold Coast, People First Stadium
R24: v Collingwood, MCG
Current ladder position: 11th (10-9)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 8.8 (Fourth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 10 (Equal eighth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
The Demons haven't had it easy to this point of the season with their fixture so far rated as the fourth hardest. They only have one interstate trip to conclude their home and away season. After games in Melbourne against the Dogs and Power, they head to the Gold Coast. Melbourne wraps up its home and away campaign against the Magpies.
R21: v Richmond, Marvel Stadium
R22: v West Coast, Blundstone Arena
R23: v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium
R24: v Hawthorn, UTAS Stadium
Current ladder position: 17th (2-17)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 8.4 (Third hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 12.8 (Equal 15th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
The Kangaroos have built some hope in the second half of 2024 and they have an opportunity to take some momentum into next year. Their final four games are rated as the equal 15th hardest, with their next two – against the Tigers and the Eagles – looking particularly winnable. North wraps up its season against the Bulldogs and Hawks.
R21: v Sydney, Adelaide Oval
R22: v Melbourne, MCG
R23: v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R24: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
Current ladder position: 7th (12-7)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 10.5 (16th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 7.5 (Equal sixth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Port's fixture so far is rated as the 16th hardest, but it's not the easiest run home. The Power host the Swans at Adelaide Oval before heading to the MCG to take on the Demons. A Showdown follows before a tough test in the final round against the Dockers in Perth.
R21: v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
R22: v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
R23: v Hawthorn, MCG
R24: v Gold Coast, MCG
Current ladder position: 18th (2-17)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 7.9 (Hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 13.3 (17th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 0
Upcoming interstate trips: 0
The Tigers have had a difficult campaign in 2024, with their fixture so far rated as the hardest. But they have some winnable games to finish the year, and they don't leave Victoria again. Richmond meets the Roos and Saints at Marvel Stadium before finishing the campaign at the MCG against the Hawks and Suns.
R21: v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium
R22: v Richmond, Marvel Stadium
R23: v Geelong, Marvel Stadium
R24: v Carlton, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 14th (8-11)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.8 (13th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 7.5 (Equal sixth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 0
The Saints will wrap up their 2024 season with four consecutive games at Marvel Stadium. They will face some tests, beginning with the Lions in round 21. After that, St Kilda meets the Tigers, Cats and Blues.
R21: v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R22: v Collingwood, SCG
R23: v Essendon, Marvel Stadium
R24: v Adelaide, SCG
Current ladder position: 1st (14-5)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.4 (Equal seventh hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 11 (Equal 11th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
The Swans have a mixed run home with their final four games rated as the equal 11th hardest. They head to Adelaide to meet Port before hosting the Magpies at the SCG. Then, Sydney heads to Marvel Stadium to take on Essendon before wrapping up its home and away season at home to the Crows.
R21: v Gold Coast, Optus Stadium
R22: v North Melbourne, Blundstone Arena
R23: v Carlton, Optus Stadium
R24: v Geelong, GMHBA Stadium
Current ladder position: 16th (3-16)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 9.6 (11th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 10 (Equal eighth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
The Eagles have a relatively tricky run home that includes trips to Hobart and Geelong. West Coast hosts the Suns in round 21 before meeting the Kangaroos, then welcomes the Blues to Optus Stadium before the tough trip to Geelong in the final round.
R21: v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
R22: v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R23: v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
R24: v Greater Western Sydney, Mars Stadium
Current ladder position: 8th (11-8)
Degree of difficulty OR-R20: 8.3 (Second hardest)
Degree of difficulty R21-24: 12 (Equal 13th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Having faced the second hardest fixture so far, the Dogs have the equal 13th hardest run in their final four games, and only one of those is interstate. After taking on the Demons at Marvel Stadium, they head to Adelaide to take on the Crows. They then return to Victoria to meet the Kangaroos before a huge clash against the Giants in Ballarat.
