IF STYLES make fights, then Saturday's top-four shootout between Brisbane and Greater Western Sydney at the Gabba looms as a belter.
Not only are they two of the more exciting teams in the competition to watch, but the Giants and Lions do it in completely different ways.
Both teams are littered with stars on every line that should make for some tantalising head-to-head duels.
With some help from statistics provided by Champion Data, let's have a look at five things that will shape the result.
Jesse Hogan v Harris Andrews
The competition's leading goalkicker up against its in-form key defender – it promises to be a mouth-watering match-up. Andrews hasn't always gone to the opposition's main man, but with Jack Payne – who has defended Hogan the past two times the teams have met – sidelined with a foot problem, Chris Fagan has to go with either his co-captain or potentially Darragh Joyce (jaw) if he is passed fit. Hogan has been a monster in 2024, not only leading the Coleman Medal with 59 goals, but taking more contested marks (48) than any other player. Andrews is third on that list (44), has taken more intercept marks than anyone (77) and has proved almost impossible to beat one-on-one. Please coaches, let it happen.
Jesse Hogan's match-ups v Brisbane |
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Match |
Opponent |
Minutes |
Goals |
R7, 2024 |
Jack Payne |
88 |
1 |
R6, 2023 |
Jack Payne |
99 |
2 |
R18, 2022 |
Harris Andrews |
97 |
1 |
R11, 2022 |
Harris Andrews |
105 |
2 |
Lions on the inside v Giants on the outside
Each team has a clear strength in how it wins the ball. Brisbane has the best contested possession differential in the competition, while the Giants have the best uncontested possession differential. The Lions start their ascendency by winning the ball at stoppage, with Lachie Neale (fourth), Oscar McInerney (20th), Josh Dunkley (33rd) and Hugh McCluggage (36th) among the AFL's total clearance kings. GWS need to slow this down to stop Brisbane winning territory. Conversely the Giants love to get the ball to the outside and play an uncontested game, led by Lachie Whitfield (third), Josh Kelly (13th) and Tom Green (19th) who collectively average more than 50 uncontested touches a game.
Lachie Whitfield and Dayne Zorko
The respective half-backs are not only among the most important players for their teams, but also pushing for All-Australian blazers. Whitfield is a ball magnet. He has more disposals (617) than anyone in the AFL, kicking the ball at an 80 per cent efficiency, and has been on a tear of late, averaging 36 touches a game over the past six weeks. Zorko has fewer disposals, but a huge impact. Following Keidean Coleman's season-ending knee injury in Opening Round, Zorko has become the conductor of Brisbane's ball movement from defence. Will either team put time – or more specifically an opponent - into Whitfield or Zorko to slow them down?
How each team moves the ball
Following on from their respective styles, there's a clear way each team likes to move the ball their opponents will be trying to negate. No team kicks the ball more than Brisbane and no team takes more uncontested marks. If they win the ball in defensive 50, look out, because the Lions are also ranked No.1 for moving the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 with a lot of short kicking to open up space. Greater Western Sydney is the play-on king. Following a mark the Giants play on more than any team in the AFL and chain their possessions via handball more than anyone. Can the Lions transition to slow the 'Orange Tsunami'?
Ball Movement Style |
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|
BL |
GWS |
Kicks |
1st |
11th |
Handballs |
17th |
1st |
Uncontested Marks |
1st |
11th |
Mark Play on % |
17th |
1st |
Territory and Transition |
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|
BL |
GWS |
Inside 50 Diff |
1st |
12th |
Time in Fwd Half Diff |
2nd |
12th |
Defensive 50 to Inside 50 % |
1st |
11th |
Toby Greene
Almost the first player on the opposition's whiteboard in any Greater Western Sydney game. It's no surprise Greene's return to his absolute best has coincided with the Giants' five-game winning streak. After a slow start to the season, the skipper has kicked 17 goals in his past six matches, along with eight direct assists. He loves playing Brisbane, with his 22 goals in 10 contests only inferior to his 43 in 15 against the Western Bulldogs in a goals-a-game sense. Brandon Starcevich is the obvious opponent, and himself in exceptional form after shutting down Jack Higgins at the weekend, which was enough to draw praise from opposition coach Ross Lyon.